Red Flag Warning 12, NWS Amarillo, TX

262 
WWUS84 KAMA 280931
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
331 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2018

TXZ015-020-281045-
/O.CAN.KAMA.FW.W.0012.180228T1700Z-180301T0100Z/
Wheeler-Collingsworth-
331 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR DUE TO VERY GOOD ERC 
RECOVERY IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...

The National Weather Service in Amarillo has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning.

Ample low level moisture has helped to lower ERC values into the 
30-40 percentile range in the far southeast Texas Panhandle. Based
on RFTI ERC requirements, this area will no longer need a Red Flag
Warning today. However, 15-20 mph west to southwest winds and low
RH values around 15 percent are still expected this afternoon, so
a Fire Danger Statement will still be needed.  

$$

TXZ001-006>009-011>014-016>019-282145-
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0012.180228T1700Z-180301T0100Z/
Dallam-Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Oldham-Potter-Carson-Gray-
Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-
331 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL, WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...

* Affected Area...In Texas...Dallam...Hartley...Moore... 
  Hutchinson...Roberts...Oldham...Potter...Carson...Gray...Deaf 
  Smith...Randall...Armstrong and Donley.

* 20 Foot Winds...Southwest to west at 16 to 26 MPH with gusts up
  to 38 MPH. Winds will shift to the north during the late 
  afternoon into the evening at 15-25 mph. 

* Relative Humidity...As low as 10 to 15 percent.

* Red Flag Threat Index...2 to 4.

* Timing...Critical fire weather conditions are expected to 
  begin around 11 AM and end around 7 PM Wednesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures will
create favorable weather for rapid fire growth and spread. Avoid
activities that promote open flames and sparks.

&&

$$

Ward

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
www.weather.gov/ama

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
308 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Surface low over southeastern Colorado with a surface trough
extending south of the surface low across the northwest portions
of the Panhandles and into the eastern Plains of New Mexico.
Surface low to track into southwestern Kansas overnight tonight as
a cold front drops south into the Oklahoma Panhandle and the
extreme northern Texas Panhandle Wednesday morning. Cold front
hangs up across the northern portions of the forecast area through
the day Wednesday before finally surging south across the
remainder of the Panhandles by Wednesday evening. Cooler Thursday
as a surface high builds in across the forecast area. A return to
warmer and breezy to windy conditions Friday through the weekend
as a surface trough develop and deepens across eastern Colorado
and eastern New Mexico. A Pacific cold front to push east across
the Panhandles Sunday night bringing much cooler conditions for
early next week.

Schneider

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions ongoing today across the
northwest portions of the Panhandles but have yet to materialize
across the southwestern Texas Panhandle. Surface trough has not
yet mixed east out of the eastern Plains of New Mexico and may not
mix as far east as the southwestern Texas Panhandle today.
Prescribed burn being performed in Potter County and is visible
on 3.9 micron satellite imagery.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected to begin
Wednesday across most of the southern half or two-thirds of the
Texas Panhandle. With ERC percentiles climbing back to around the
90th percentile and RFTIs of 2 to 4 across the southern half of
the Texas Panhandle, critical fire weather conditions should
develop. The caveat will be cloud cover, however it appears that
enough clearing should take place Wednesday to allow mixing of the
strongest winds to the surface. Upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to
a Red Flag Warning for Wednesday as confidence in critical fire
weather conditions increase.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible
Friday, Saturday and Sunday as 20 foot winds and humidities result
in RFTIs of 2 to 5 Friday through Sunday.

Schneider

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                40  65  28  58  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  36  64  25  57  31 /   0   0   5   0   0
Boise City OK              32  60  23  56  31 /   0   5   5   0   0
Borger TX                  42  67  31  59  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              36  65  26  61  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  38  65  28  59  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               43  69  31  58  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 32  61  24  57  29 /   0   0   5   0   0
Guymon OK                  34  63  25  58  32 /   0   0   5   0   0
Hereford TX                37  63  28  60  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                40  67  29  57  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   42  66  29  58  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                43  71  33  58  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              45  72  34  60  31 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CST Wednesday for the
     following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...
     Dallam...Deaf Smith...Donley...Gray...Hartley...
     Hutchinson...Moore...Oldham...Potter...Randall...Roberts...
     Wheeler.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for the following
     zones: Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hartley...Oldham.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for the following
     zones: Cimarron.

&&

2/11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
311 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2018

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-281200-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
311 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected through
early this evening for the extreme western Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the far western
Panhandles until 7 PM CST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible on
Wednesday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday across mainly western and
southern parts of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. A Red Flag
Warning is in effect for most of the Texas Panhandle from 11 AM
to 7 PM Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
elevated or critical fire weather conditions through early this
evening, Wednesday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

Schneider