Frost Advisory 4, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1242 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

.AVIATION...
For the 18z TAFs...
IFR ceilings expected to lift into MVFR range by late afternoon,
with occasional MVFR to IFR visibilities in light rain showers and
fog.  Improvement to VFR expected this evening as downward
motions strengthen in wake of departing shortwave trof. Timing of
categorical changes will be problematic.  Amendments will be
issued as needed.

Cockrell

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 651 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF Issuance...MVFR/IFR conditions are expected at all three
TAF sites through tonight due to the showers and low clouds across
the Panhandles. SHRA will continue for AMA/DHT until 15Z and until
17Z for GUY. VCSH is included in all three TAF sites but ending
around 16Z for AMA and 21-22Z for DHT/GUY, depending on how long
these showers linger. Winds will be northerly for all three sites
through the TAF period with winds around 10-20 kts. Winds are
gusty this morning between 20-25 kts, but will be tapering off
into the afternoon hours. Sky conditions are OVC across the
Panhandles and will become SCT tonight into tomorrow morning.

Rutt

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 322 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/

SHORT TERM...Today and Tonight...

Upper level low over the four corners progged to eject northeast
over the great plains later this afternoon. Cold front is just
north of Amarillo. Cold air will remain reinforced over the area
as a second system will move down from the Pacific Northwest later
today and into Wednesday morning. Highs today for the southern
Panhandles likely have already occurred after midnight, prior to
the cold front arrival. Afternoon max temperatures across the
Panhandles will likely be in the upper 40s to low 50s, around 20
to 25 degrees below normal. Moderate rain currently engulfs the
southern Panhandles, and should overtake the central and northern
Panhandles in the next hour. The southeast Panhandles could see
several hours of ongoing precipitation given the current moisture
track. Due to the cold air in place, morning lows on Wednesday
will be the coldest we've seen since the spring. Cimarron County
could be toying with temperatures at freezing, while the northwest
Panhandle in general could be looking at a frost potential. Winds
should be fairly light, but cloud cover might be an issue to get
the frost to form. Will defer to day shift, for Frost/Freeze
products, if even needed.

Weber

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday...

Surface ridge builds eastward across the CWA Wednesday, allowing for
crisp conditions with highs in the 60s, relatively low dew points,
and light winds. As the ridge axis continues to build eastward into
the overnight hours, a light southeasterly breeze looks to set up
across the Panhandles, which should hold lows temperatures up
compared to Tuesday night.

For Thursday and Friday, the upslope southeasterly flow looks to
continue. At the same time, quasi-zonal upper jet streak will
translate overhead. These should combine to lead to at least a few
showers over these two days. There looks to be just enough
instability around to keep a minimal chance of thunder as well.
Additionally, at least partly cloudy skies should result, so have
compressed both ends of the diurnal temperature range slightly.

The weekend will bring additional chances for showers as the
remnants of Hurricane Sergio head northeastward across the southern
Plains. After a couple days of cool and cloudy conditions in the
presence of upslope flow, progged MUCAPE will remain low, so have
once again limited any thunder mentions to a slight chance. The
remnants of Sergio are progged to move quickly across the area, so
am not too worried about flooding potential, although some localized
flooding is not out of the question given the amount of rain some
spots have received in the past few days.

Next longwave trough looks to swing across the Plains early
Sunday pushing another cold front southward through the
Panhandles. Operational GFS, EC, and CMC all show our first below
0C 850mb temperatures of the season behind this cold front.
Widespread frost and perhaps a freeze are certainly possible
Monday morning.

Ferguson

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

03/24

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
312 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-092015-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
312 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue early this morning.
Some may produce occasionally heavy rain, which could lead to
flooding or flash flooding. A Flood Watch remains in effect for
the eastern, central and south- central sections of the Combined
Panhandles through 7 AM this morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Low temperatures Wednesday morning are forecast to fall to
between 32 and 37 degrees across the northwest one-third of the
Combined Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. A Frost Advisory or Freeze
Warning may become necessary for this area late Tuesday night
into early Wednesday morning.

Chances for thunderstorms return on Thursday, with chances
increasing Friday night and Saturday. Additional thunderstorms
may develop on Sunday. Any storms that form are expected to
remain below severe levels at this time.

Monday morning may bring the first temperatures below freezing of
the season to the northwestern Texas and western Oklahoma
Panhandles. A Frost Advisory or Freeze Warning may become
necessary for a large portion of the Panhandles as a result.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.