Winter Storm Warning 10, NWS Albany, NY

968 
WWUS41 KALY 201637
WSWALY

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
1237 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018


CTZ001-013-NYZ065-066-210045-
/O.CON.KALY.WS.W.0010.180321T0900Z-180322T1200Z/
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Western Dutchess-
Eastern Dutchess-
Including the cities of Torrington, Oakville, Gaylordsville, 
New Milford, Terryville, Thomaston, Poughkeepsie, Beacon, 
Arlington, Pawling, Wingdale, Dover Plains, Millbrook, 
Stanfordville, Pine Plains, and Amenia
1237 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO
8 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10
  inches, with localized amounts up to a foot over higher terrain
  in southeast Dutchess County and Litchfield County.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Litchfield County. In New York, Dutchess
  County.

* WHEN...From 5 AM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Be 
  prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

MAZ025-NYZ063-064-210045-
/O.UPG.KALY.WS.A.0008.180321T0900Z-180322T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KALY.WW.Y.0024.180321T1200Z-180322T1200Z/
Southern Berkshire-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-
Including the cities of Sandisfield, Great Barrington, 
South Egremont, Ellenville, Woodstock, West Hurley, West Shokan, 
Kerhonkson, Napanoch, Sundown, Kingston, and New Paltz
1237 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM
EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches,
  with localized amounts up to 6 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...In New York, Ulster County. In Massachusetts, Southern
  Berkshire County. Snow will be heaviest over the southern part
  of the advisory area in southern Ulster County and extreme
  southern Berkshire County near the Connecticut state line.

* WHEN...From 8 AM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Be 
  prepared for reduced visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

NYZ061-210045-
/O.NEW.KALY.WW.Y.0024.180321T1200Z-180322T1200Z/
Eastern Columbia-
Including the city of New Lebanon
1237 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM
EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 
  inches, with localized amounts up to 6 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Columbia County. Snow will be heaviest over
  extreme southern Columbia County near the border with Dutchess
  County.

* WHEN...From 8 AM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Be 
  prepared for reduced visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

MSE

716 
WWUS41 KALY 202018
WSWALY

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
418 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

CTZ001-013-NYZ065-066-210930-
/O.CON.KALY.WS.W.0010.180321T0900Z-180322T1200Z/
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Western Dutchess-
Eastern Dutchess-
Including the cities of Torrington, Oakville, Gaylordsville, 
New Milford, Terryville, Thomaston, Poughkeepsie, Beacon, 
Arlington, Pawling, Wingdale, Dover Plains, Millbrook, 
Stanfordville, Pine Plains, and Amenia
418 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO
8 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 10
  inches, with localized amounts up to a foot over higher terrain
  in southeast Dutchess County and Litchfield County. The lower
  end of the snow range will occur across extreme northern 
  Dutchess and Litchfield Counties

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Litchfield County. In New York, 
  Dutchess County.

* WHEN...From 5 AM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Be
  prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times. Snow
  covered roads will become very slippery during the morning and
  afternoon commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

MAZ025-NYZ061-063-064-210930-
/O.CON.KALY.WW.Y.0024.180321T1200Z-180322T1200Z/
Southern Berkshire-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-
Including the cities of Sandisfield, Great Barrington, 
South Egremont, New Lebanon, Ellenville, Woodstock, West Hurley, 
West Shokan, Kerhonkson, Napanoch, Sundown, Kingston, 
and New Paltz
418 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY
TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 
  inches, with localized amounts up to 6 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...In New York, Ulster and eastern Columbia Counties. In 
  Massachusetts, Southern Berkshire County. Snow will be heaviest 
  over the southern part of the advisory area in southern Ulster 
  County and extreme southern Berkshire County near the 
  Connecticut state line.

* WHEN...From 8 AM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Be 
  prepared for reduced visibilities at times.  Snow
  covered roads will become very slippery during the morning and
  afternoon commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

498 
WWUS41 KALY 210804
WSWALY

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
404 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

CTZ001-013-NYZ065-066-211800-
/O.CON.KALY.WS.W.0010.180321T0900Z-180322T1200Z/
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Western Dutchess-
Eastern Dutchess-
Including the cities of Torrington, Oakville, Gaylordsville, 
New Milford, Terryville, Thomaston, Poughkeepsie, Beacon, 
Arlington, Pawling, Wingdale, Dover Plains, Millbrook, 
Stanfordville, Pine Plains, and Amenia
404 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 7
  inches are expected across northern Dutchess and northern 
  Litchfield Counties, with 6 to 10 inches across southern 
  Dutchess and southern Litchfield Counties. A few spots may 
  locally see up to a foot in southeastern Litchfield County. 

* WHERE...Dutchess County New York and Litchfield County
  Connecticut.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions,
  especially during the evening commute. Be prepared for 
  significant reductions in visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

MAZ025-NYZ061-063-064-211800-
/O.CON.KALY.WW.Y.0024.180321T1200Z-180322T1200Z/
Southern Berkshire-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-
Including the cities of Sandisfield, Great Barrington, 
South Egremont, New Lebanon, Ellenville, Woodstock, West Hurley, 
West Shokan, Kerhonkson, Napanoch, Sundown, Kingston, 
and New Paltz
404 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS
MORNING TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches,
  with localized amounts up to 6 inches in southeastern Ulster
  County, are expected.

* WHERE...Ulster County and Eastern Columbia County New York and
  Southern Berkshire County Massachusetts.

* WHEN...From 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Be 
  prepared for reduced visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

439 
WWUS41 KALY 211640
WSWALY

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
1240 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

CTZ001-013-NYZ065-066-220045-
/O.CON.KALY.WS.W.0010.000000T0000Z-180322T1200Z/
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Western Dutchess-
Eastern Dutchess-
Including the cities of Torrington, Oakville, Gaylordsville, 
New Milford, Terryville, Thomaston, Poughkeepsie, Beacon, 
Arlington, Pawling, Wingdale, Dover Plains, Millbrook, 
Stanfordville, Pine Plains, and Amenia
1240 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 7
  inches are expected across northern Dutchess and northern 
  Litchfield Counties, with 6 to 10 inches across southern 
  Dutchess and southern Litchfield Counties. A few spots may 
  locally see up to a foot in southeastern Litchfield County.

* WHERE...Dutchess County New York and Litchfield County
  Connecticut.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Thursday. Only some light snow is 
  expected through mid to late afternoon. Heavier snow develops 
  toward sunset, and continues through late tonight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions to
  develop during the evening commute and continue tonight. Be 
  prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

MAZ025-NYZ061-063-064-220045-
/O.CON.KALY.WW.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-180322T1200Z/
Southern Berkshire-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-
Including the cities of Sandisfield, Great Barrington, 
South Egremont, New Lebanon, Ellenville, Woodstock, West Hurley, 
West Shokan, Kerhonkson, Napanoch, Sundown, Kingston, 
and New Paltz
1240 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches, with 
  localized amounts up to 6 inches in southeastern Ulster County, 
  are expected.

* WHERE...Ulster County and Eastern Columbia County New York, and
  Southern Berkshire County Massachusetts.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Thursday. Light snow is expected to
  develop around sunset, and become steadier through late 
  tonight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions this
  evening through late tonight. Be prepared for reduced
  visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

331 
WWUS41 KALY 211951
WSWALY

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
351 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

NYZ065-066-221000-
/O.CAN.KALY.WS.W.0010.000000T0000Z-180322T1200Z/
/O.EXA.KALY.WW.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-180322T1200Z/
Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Including the cities of Poughkeepsie, Beacon, Arlington, Pawling,
Wingdale, Dover Plains, Millbrook, Stanfordville, Pine Plains, 
and Amenia
351 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Snow. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are 
  expected.

* WHERE...Dutchess County in New York.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Thursday. Periods of snow are expected to
  develop through sunset, with periods of snow continuing through
  late tonight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions to develop
  during the evening commute and continue through late tonight. 
  Be prepared for reduced visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

CTZ001-013-221000-
/O.CON.KALY.WS.W.0010.000000T0000Z-180322T1200Z/
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-
Including the cities of Torrington, Oakville, Gaylordsville, 
New Milford, Terryville, and Thomaston
351 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches 
  are expected, greatest across eastern Litchfield County.

* WHERE...Litchfield County in Connecticut.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Thursday. Periods of snow will develop
  through sunset, and continue through late tonight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions to
  develop during the evening commute and continue through late
  tonight. Be prepared for significant reductions in visibility 
  at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

MAZ025-NYZ061-063-064-221000-
/O.CON.KALY.WW.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-180322T1200Z/
Southern Berkshire-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-
Including the cities of Sandisfield, Great Barrington, 
South Egremont, New Lebanon, Ellenville, Woodstock, West Hurley, 
West Shokan, Kerhonkson, Napanoch, Sundown, Kingston, 
and New Paltz
351 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches, with 
  localized amounts up to 5 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Ulster and Eastern Columbia Counties in New York, and 
  Southern Berkshire County Massachusetts.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Thursday. Periods of snow are expected to
  develop through sunset, with periods of snow continuing through
  late tonight. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions to develop
  during the evening commute and continue through late tonight. Be
  prepared for reduced visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

867 
WWUS41 KALY 220134
WSWALY

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
934 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

CTZ001-013-221000-
/O.CAN.KALY.WS.W.0010.000000T0000Z-180322T1200Z/
/O.EXA.KALY.WW.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-180322T1200Z/
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-
Including the cities of Torrington, Oakville, Gaylordsville, 
New Milford, Terryville, and Thomaston
934 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches are
  expected.

* WHERE...Northern Litchfield and Southern Litchfield Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Be 
  prepared for reduced visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

MAZ025-NYZ061-063-064-220245-
/O.CAN.KALY.WW.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-180322T1200Z/
Southern Berkshire-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-
Including the cities of Sandisfield, Great Barrington, 
South Egremont, New Lebanon, Ellenville, Woodstock, West Hurley, 
West Shokan, Kerhonkson, Napanoch, Sundown, Kingston, 
and New Paltz
934 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Only very light snow accumulations of a coating to a few inches
are possible, and the winter weather advisory is canceled for the
southern Berkshires, eastern Columbia and Ulster Counties.

$$

NYZ065-066-221000-
/O.CON.KALY.WW.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-180322T1200Z/
Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Including the cities of Poughkeepsie, Beacon, Arlington, Pawling,
Wingdale, Dover Plains, Millbrook, Stanfordville, Pine Plains, 
and Amenia
934 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches are
  expected. The highest totals in extreme southern Dutchess
  County.

* WHERE...Western Dutchess and Eastern Dutchess Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Be 
  prepared for reduced visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
200 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to allow for a cold northerly flow into
the region tonight into tomorrow, with mainly clear skies and below
normal temperatures. A storm system may impact portions of the
region Wednesday, mainly south of Albany, with an accumulating
snowfall. Several inches may occur over the mid-Hudson Valley and in
northwestern Connecticut. Dry weather is expected Thursday into
Friday, along with temperatures remaining below normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 131 AM EDT...1030 hpa high pressure area is located over
central Ontario and is nosing southeastward into the Northeast.
This subsidence is allowing for nearly clear skies, as IR
satellite imagery only shows just some thin cirrus clouds across
far southern areas. As a result of the clear skies and light
winds in place, good radiational cooling is occurring and
overnight lows will be cold for mid-March. Lows will be in the
single digits and teens, although a few spots in the Adirondacks
will fall below zero.

During the day Tuesday, dry weather will continue as high
pressure will continue to slowly slide eastward across southern
Canada. Although much of the region will see mostly sunny skies
to start the day, some high clouds will be increasing from
south to north throughout the day, as low pressure organizes
over the mid-Atlantic states. Highs will generally be in the
30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Complex winter storm will take shape over the mid-Atlantic
during this period with the northern edge of the the
precipitation still in question as it affects our area. Mid-
level low pressure will deepen over the central Appalachians
Tuesday night into Wednesday with associated low pressure
developing off the east coast. Meanwhile mid- level low
pressure will be spinning over the Canadian Maritimes and will
tend to block this storm from moving up the coast as far north
as the last few storms. Models continue to show some run-to-run
differences and ample convection during the development stages
of the system over the southeast U.S. will keep some uncertainty
in the forecast. The latest runs of all of the operational
models have indicated a northward trend with this system along
the mid-Atlantic coast allowing for a winter storm threat for
our southern counties from the mid-Hudson Valley into
Connecticut. Based on this we have issued a winter storm watch
for the mid-Hudson Valley into western Connecticut for Wednesday
with the understanding that there is still ample uncertainty
on where the northern edge of the heavy precipitation
eventually sets up.

Initial low pressure developing off the coast will move east
south of Long Island Tuesday night. An area of light snow will
be passing mainly south of our area during that time with some
snow possibly brushing the southern edge of the mid-Hudson
Valley and northwest Connecticut. The main system will develop
on Wednesday as another low pressure area develops off the coast
with the main mid-level low center advancing east from the
Appalachians toward the coast. The surface storm will deepen
into the 980's while mid-level low pressure advances east off
the Delmarva coast setting the stage for moderate to heavy
precipitation with pivoting snow bands from southern New England
back to eastern Pa. The mid-level low center eventually pulls
off to the east-northeast passing well to the south of Cape Cod.
This pattern would result in most of the precipitation falling
south and east of the Capital District with heavy snow potential
still in play for the mid-Hudson Valley into western
Connecticut Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Northwest flow behind the system later Wednesday night into
Thursday could result in a few flurries or light snow showers
for the higher terrain especially west of the Hudson Valley,
otherwise dry and continued chilly weather will return to all
areas Thursday into Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The atmospheric pattern turns complex for the long term with
temperatures expected to run 5-10 degrees below normal through early
next week.

Friday will feature a longwave trough over the eastern CONUS/western
Atlantic with strong ridging over the Central Plains. Weak north-
northwest flow over the Northeast should lead to some cold air
advection so I decreased high temperatures a few degrees into the
mid-upper 30s. Within the longwave trough during the day Friday, a
shortwave looks to travel from the Great Lakes into the Northeast.
While the passage of a shortwave and trough axis typically
introduces the potential for snow showers and even snow squalls, the
moisture aloft is low so for the time being, only have slight chance
POPs in the Adirondacks. However, given that BUFKIT profiles show a
well-mixed and deep boundary layer extending up to around 750mb with
rather steep lapse rates, we will continue to watch the potential
for snow showers/snow squalls in future updates. Most of the latest
guidance is in agreement that the trough axis exits into eastern New
England by 00z Saturday.

A reinforced shot of cold air advection and subsidence behind the
departing trough axis should lead to clearing skies and cool low
temperatures Friday night in the low - mid 20s. Below normal
temperatures continue into Saturday as cyclonic flow remains in
place over the Northeast. The strong ridge from the Central Plains
tries to shift into the Northeast Saturday but it looks to become
flatten by a second, more potent shortwave from the Hudson Bay that
dives southward. This is an important feature to note because the
latest guidance continues to show a low pressure system intensifying
in the Midwest/Ohio Valley during this time. The flatten ridge gives
way to more zonal flow over the Eastern CONUS which would allow the
developing low to track into the mid-Atlantic.

By Sunday, the broad cyclonic flow remains in place over the
Northeast with a strong 1040-1045 high over northern Canada slowing
sinking southward. In fact, there are signs of a potential back-door
cold front that could reach into the eastern half of our CWA. Either
way, these features could act as a block to the approaching low and
suppress the moisture south of our CWA. Interestingly, the 700mb
pattern on Sunday shows a sharp baroclinc zone and moisture
difference between the mid-Atlantic and Northeast so there could be
a sharp snowfall gradient on the system's northern fringe. Much
uncertainty remains on the low's track with the 12z Canadian and
ECMWF showing some moisture scraping the southern half of our CWA
but the GFS shows it well to our south. For the latest update,
continued slight chance POPs for the northern half of the CWA on
Sunday and chance POPs for the southern half.

High pressure from northern Canada should then take control for
Monday/Tuesday with temperatures remaining below normal. Highs
remain in the low-mid 40s and lows in the low-mid 20s (normal highs
for late March is closer to 50 and lows in the upper 20s).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Strong high pressure centered over Ontario Canada noses
southward across the local area resulting in VFR conditions
across the local area. This high will dominate our weather
overnight well into Tuesday. However, high level cirrus
clouds will stream in and thicken as a coastal low develops
along the southeast/mid-Atlantic coast during the afternoon
into the evening. Mid level clouds are expected to make to KPOU
by evening. Overall clouds are not expected to lower until after
06Z/Wednesday with snow expected to start at KPOU before 12Z.

Will have calm to very light north winds overnight with north
to northeast winds of 10 knots or less Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The Fire Weather season has officially begun across eastern New
York and western New England. Despite this, snow cover is in
place across much of the region, which will mitigate any
potential fire weather hazards for the time being.

High pressure over central Canada will allow for a cold northerly
flow into the region tonight and tomorrow, with a partly to mostly
sunny sky and well below normal temperatures.  A storm system will
pass by to the south on Wednesday, which may bring some snow, mainly
to our southern areas. Dry weather will return to all areas on
Thursday into Friday along with below normal temperatures.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are anticipated through the week.

Mainly dry weather is expected through the week across the
entire area. The exception may be far southeastern areas could
see some light snow on Wednesday, but liquid equivalent amounts
will be under two tenths of an inch.

A slow diurnal snowmelt is expected over the next several days,
with temperatures above freezing during the day, and below
freezing at night. There will be little impact on the waterways
with minimal, if any, rises.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning
     for CTZ001-013.
NY...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning
     for NYZ064>066.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MSE/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...MSE/Frugis
HYDROLOGY...Frugis

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
341 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

CTZ001-013-NYZ064>066-201100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Eastern Ulster-
Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
341 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut and
eastern Ulster and all of Dutchess Counties of east central New
York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MAZ001-025-NYZ047>054-058>061-063-084-VTZ013>015-201100-
Northern Berkshire-Southern Berkshire-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-
Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Southern Washington-
Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
341 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Massachusetts,
southern Vermont, eastern Catskills, Schoharie Valley, Capital
Region, central Taconics and southern Washington Counties.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Another Nor'easter is forecast to impact the region late Tuesday
through Wednesday. Latest trends are closer to the coastline as
accumulating light snowfall is forecast. Preliminary snowfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected. Changes to the forecast
are possible as stay tuned for further updates from your National
Weather Service.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ032-033-038>043-082-083-201100-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-
Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-Northern Washington-
Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-
341 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Adirondacks, the central and
western Mohawk Valley and the Lake George Saratoga Region.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.