Special Weather Statement, NWS Albany, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
342 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure system will slowly move eastward
across the region into tonight, bringing occasional showers and
scattered thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will be capable of
producing locally heavy rainfall with flash flooding possible. A
cold front will cross the region late Wednesday bringing
another chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly across
northern areas.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Flash Flood Watch until midnight tonight for the Lake George
Saratoga Region, Mohawk Valley, Sacandaga Region, Schoharie Valley,
Greater Capital District, Eastern Catskills, Mid Hudson Valley, and
the Taconics.

A surface area of low pressure over our region and an upper level
trough located over the western Catskills will keep the threat of
heavy rain across most of the region through this evening. PWATS
remain between 1.5 and 1.75 inches through this evening. So expect
showers and embedded thunderstorms to rotate across much of the
region through this evening. The activity should diminish after
midnight as the upper level trough starts to pull away from the
region. Lows overnight are expected to be in the lower to middle
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For Wednesday more wet weather is possible mainly across northern
areas as a cold front drops southeast from the Saint Lawrence
Valley. PWATS Wednesday afternoon are generally under 1.5 inches
except across northern areas where they are as high as 1.75 inches.
Storms should be moving fairly fast Wednesday afternoon based on the
H7 flow, generally at 30 to 40 kts. MLMUCAPES are generally 1000 to
3000 J/KG across much of the region with 0-6 km bulk shear 25 to 30+
kts. H7-H5 lapse rates are generally 6 to 6.5 C/km. So some stronger
storms are certainly possible Wednesday afternoon especially across
northern areas where SPC has a marginal risk in effect. Highs on
Wednesday will be in the upper 70s to upper 80s.

Wednesday night looks mainly dry as a weak ridge of high pressure
tries to build into the region. Lows will be in the upper 50s to
upper 60s.

On Thursday expect a mostly dry day except cannot rule out a shower
or thunderstorm mainly across western areas during the afternoon as
a warm front will be lifting northeast from the Ohio Valley. Highs
will be in the upper 70s to around 90.

For Thursday night there will be a chance of showers across the
northwest half of the forecast area as the warm front moves into
central New York by Friday morning. Lows will be in the mid 60s to
lower 70s.

Friday looks to be another active day as showers and thunderstorms
will become more numerous during the day with the warm front
lifting northeast through the forecast area as a cold front
approaches from the eastern Great Lakes with low pressure tracking
across southern Canada. PWATS rise to over 2 inches across much of
the region on Friday so have once again introduced the mention of
heavy rain. MLMUCAPES rise to 1500 to 4000 J/KG Friday afternoon, 0-
6 km bulk shear 20 to 35 kts, H7-H5 lapse rates 5.5 to 6.5 C/km. So
some stronger storms are possible once again.

Overall during the short term period expect temperatures to average
above normal with precipitation near normal to slightly above normal
as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
This period will be marked by unsettled conditions at each end with
a dry section in the middle between systems.  Thunderstorms may be a
threat, but along with limited sunshine and atmospheric momentum,
instability will also be limited.  It will feel as it should...like
the middle of summer, with moderately high humidities and high
temperatures mainly in the upper 60s to lower 80s range each day,
and lows mostly from the upper 50s to the lower and mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level low will gradually move eastward across the region
this afternoon. Ceilings and vsibilities will be VFR this
afternoon. As convection is on the increase this afternoon,
showers and thunderstorms will be possible with heavy downpours
into the early evening hours. MVFR to IFR are expected with any
storms. An improvement to VFR should occur in the evening
however overnight where cloud cover decrease fog and/or stratus
are expected especially where it rains today.

Winds will be light and variable this afternoon and evening. By
Wednesday afternoon, winds will be out of the west around
10kts.

Outlook...

Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper level low pressure system will slowly move eastward
across the region into tonight, bringing occasional showers and
scattered thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will be capable of
producing locally heavy rainfall with flash flooding possible. A
cold front will cross the region late Wednesday bringing
another chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly across
northern areas.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
An upper level low pressure system will bring occasional
showers and scattered thunderstorms through this evening. Deep
moisture will accompany the low as it pushes east. Some storms
will produce locally heavy rainfall. As a result, the Flash
Flood Watch continues for much of the area.

Main stem river flooding is not likely across most of the area,
however the Schoharie basin is running high so additional
rainfall could result in renewed flooding along the Schoharie
Creek at Gilboa Bridge, or new flooding at Prattsville if more
rain falls in these areas.

Some areas will receive 1 to 3 inches of rain with locally
higher amounts, especially in the Flash Flood Watch area. This
rainfall could occur in three hours or less, thus resulting in a
Flash Flood threat. Conditions are expected to improve
overnight, with showers and storms tapering off.

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
associated with a cold front passage Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday evening. Then, more unsettled weather is expected
towards the end of the week as another low pressure system
affect the region. Showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy
rainfall will be possible again Friday afternoon into Friday
evening.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ038>041-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...11/JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
356 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084-151100-
Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-
Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-
Western Albany-Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-
Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-
356 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Lake George Saratoga
Region, Mohawk Valley, Sacandaga Region, Schoharie Valley, Greater
Capital District, Eastern Catskills, Mid Hudson Valley, and the
Taconics of east central New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Isolated to widely scattered non-severe thunderstorms are possible
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Also, there is a chance of thunderstorms Friday afternoon through
Friday evening. More heavy rain is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should send any reports of heavy rainfall or flash flooding
to the National Weather Service.

NYZ032-033-042-043-151100-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Northern Warren-Northern Washington-
356 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Southern Adirondacks of
east central New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Occasional showers with scattered thunderstorms will continue
through this evening. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with
minor flooding of poor drainage locations and low lying areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Some of the storms may produce strong gusty winds.

Also, there is a chance of thunderstorms Friday afternoon through
Friday evening. More heavy rain is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should send any reports of heavy rainfall or flash flooding
to the National Weather Service.

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-VTZ013>015-151100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
356 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Occasional showers with scattered thunderstorms will continue through
this evening. Locally heavy rainfall is likely, with the potential
for some flash flooding. If conditions become more certain, a Flash
Flood Watch would be issued.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Isolated to widely scattered non-severe thunderstorms are possible
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Also, there is a chance of thunderstorms Friday afternoon through
Friday evening. More heavy rain is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should send any reports of heavy rainfall or flash flooding
to the National Weather Service.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
155 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018

NYZ033-039-040-082-141845-
Southern Fulton-Hamilton-Northern Fulton-Montgomery-
155 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL HAMILTON...CENTRAL
FULTON AND CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...

At 155 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Ephratah, or
near Johnstown, moving north at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

This storm will be near...
  Caroga Lake and Caroga Lake Public Campground around 210 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include North Bush,
Wheelerville, Bleecker Center, Garoga, Cork, Newkirk, Kecks Center,
Sammonsville, Rockwood and Bowlers Corners.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

LAT...LON 4295 7441 4297 7455 4338 7447 4341 7432
TIME...MOT...LOC 1755Z 175DEG 22KT 4304 7447

CS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
237 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018

NYZ033-039-041-042-082-141915-
Southern Fulton-Hamilton-Northern Fulton-Northern Warren-Northern
Saratoga-
237 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON...WEST
CENTRAL WARREN AND EASTERN FULTON COUNTIES...

At 237 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Mayfield, or
near Gloversville, moving north at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

This storm will be near...
  Cranberry Creek around 245 PM EDT.
  Northville and Northampton Beach Public Campground around 255 PM
  EDT.
  Wells and Sacandaga Campground around 315 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Meco, Fairchilds
Corners, Gilmantown, Girards Sugarbush, Munsonville, Sweets Crossing,
Pinnacle, Blackbridge, Whitehouse and Maple Grove.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

LAT...LON 4301 7417 4303 7439 4349 7446 4348 7409
TIME...MOT...LOC 1837Z 181DEG 24KT 4309 7430

CS

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
302 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018

NYZ040-048>050-141945-
Eastern Schenectady-Western Schenectady-Montgomery-Southern Saratoga-
302 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SCHENECTADY...SOUTHWESTERN
SARATOGA AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...

At 300 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Duanesburg, or
10 miles south of Amsterdam, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

This storm will be near...
  Rotterdam Junction and Pattersonville-Rotterdam Junction around
  330 PM EDT.
  East Glenville around 335 PM EDT.
  Scotia and Glenville around 340 PM EDT.
  Galway, Burnt Hills and Alplaus around 345 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Parkis Mills,
Glenridge, Hoffmans, Harding Crossing, Garrison Manor, Aqueduct,
Woodruff Heights, Elnora, Schonowe and Hutchinson Crossing.

This Includes The Following Highways...
 Interstate 90 near exit 26.
 Interstate 890 between exits 1a and 2A.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4298 7412 4298 7410 4301 7410 4307 7403
      4288 7378 4274 7420 4278 7425 4279 7425
      4279 7427 4282 7430
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 225DEG 14KT 4279 7417

CS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
355 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018

NYZ041-050-082-142030-
Northern Fulton-Southern Saratoga-Northern Saratoga-
355 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN SARATOGA AND EAST
CENTRAL FULTON COUNTIES...

At 353 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Northampton
Beach Public Campground, or 14 miles northeast of Amsterdam, moving
northeast at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

This storm will be near...
  Edinburg around 415 PM EDT.
  Day Center around 430 PM EDT.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

If you are on or near the Great Sacandaga Lake, get out of the water
and move indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike
out to 10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to
safe shelter now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4325 7416 4326 7414 4329 7414 4335 7405
      4317 7378 4304 7405 4309 7412 4310 7412
      4309 7413 4316 7422
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 221DEG 10KT 4313 7408

CS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
403 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018

NYZ041-048>050-142045-
Eastern Schenectady-Western Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Northern
Saratoga-
403 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL SCHENECTADY AND
SOUTHWESTERN SARATOGA COUNTIES...

At 403 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Scotia, moving
north at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

This storm will be near...
  Pattersonville-Rotterdam Junction and Burnt Hills around 415 PM
  EDT.
  Glenville around 425 PM EDT.
  Ballston Spa around 440 PM EDT.
  Milton, Galway, Rock City Falls and North Ballston Spa around 445
  PM EDT.

This Includes The Following Highways... Interstate 88 near exit 25.
 Interstate 90 between exits 25a and 26.
 Interstate 890 between exits 1a and 7.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4290 7408 4291 7408 4304 7410 4308 7384
      4278 7386 4277 7410 4288 7412
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 176DEG 15KT 4285 7399

CS