Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Albany, NY

151 
WWUS51 KALY 152114
SVSALY

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
514 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018

NYC041-113-152145-
/O.CON.KALY.SV.W.0089.000000T0000Z-180815T2145Z/
Hamilton NY-Warren NY-
514 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL HAMILTON AND WEST CENTRAL WARREN COUNTIES...

At 514 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Lewey Lake
Campground, or over Speculator, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
central Hamilton and west central Warren Counties, including the
following locations... Perkins Clearing, Sled Harbor and West Canada
Lakes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4364 7460 4365 7459 4363 7407 4346 7408
      4358 7463
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 292DEG 14KT 4362 7439 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

TAW

518 
WWUS51 KALY 152131
SVSALY

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
531 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018

NYC041-113-152141-
/O.CAN.KALY.SV.W.0089.000000T0000Z-180815T2145Z/
Hamilton NY-Warren NY-
531 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL HAMILTON AND WEST
CENTRAL WARREN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened.
moved out of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been
cancelled.

LAT...LON 4364 7460 4365 7459 4363 7407 4346 7408
      4358 7463
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 292DEG 14KT 4360 7430 

$$

TAW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
401 PM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the Adirondacks and Lake George
region late this afternoon into this evening, bringing another
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mainly dry weather is
expected most of the day on Thursday with above normal
temperatures, especially from the Hudson River Valley eastward.
The next more widespread threat of showers and thunderstorms
arrives Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 330 PM EDT... Convection continues to develop along and
ahead of the cold front near the St Lawrence Valley. Per the SPC
mesoscale window across the northeast, SBCAPES have risen to
near 3k J/Kg and bulk shear at or just above 30kts with higher
values just upstream. Per the HRRR, seems this uptick trend in
convection should continue as low level convergence remains in
place near the frontal zone and any lake induced boundaries
from Lake Ontario. Per the HRRR and 3kmNAM it would seem the
Dacks and Lake George region would be the most susceptible for
convection which remains within the Marginal Risk by SPC SWODY1.
Dewpoints remain elevated with 65-70F and lower 70s to the
north of I90 as we did up those values in this afternoon
forecast package and timed the PoPs/Wx per trends and the
HRRR/3kmNAM.

The convection should dissipate this evening with the loss of
daytime heating as the convection and boundary approaches the
I-90 corridor. Clouds should at least become partly cloudy for
most of the region with some patchy fog and/or low stratus as we
remain rather mild and muggy as dewpoints remain in the mid an
upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday, short wave ridge axis is expected to cross over the
region from west to east as the frontal boundary slowly drifts
southward across the region. Per the Bufkit profiles, seems a
CAP will be in place in the mid layers to prevent much in the
way of showers. However, later in the afternoon hours to the
west of Albany, that aforementioned short wave ridge axis may be
just far enough to the east to allow for the slight chance PoPs
to be introduced. It will still be warm and humid as many 80s
once again are expected with valley heat index values into the
lower half of the 90s.

Chances for showers will gradually increase Thursday night into
early Friday, as a surface cyclone and associated upper level
trough across the western and upper Great Lakes and Mississippi
River Valley moves into the eastern Great Lakes overnight.
Large scale ascent will be increasing, with the best chances for
rainfall across areas north and west of Albany with the warm
front.

The end of this work week appears to unsettled and active. The
upper trough is expected to remain positive tilted across the
northeast corridor with moisture transport continuing through
the day with Pwats climbing toward 2". Convection will become
more widespread on Friday, as the surface cyclone tracks
eastward across St Lawrence Valley. The degree of instability
will be dependent on insolation as NCEP Model Suite points
toward more cloud coverage with the ECMWF suggesting moisture
discontinuity along and south of I90. The Storm Prediction
Center (SPC) has much of our area in Marginal Risk for severe
storms at this time. As no SWODY3 update is usually done with
this forecast update, per the parameters of high Pwats and
increase instability (especially Showalter values down below
0C), the lapse rates remain weak at or below 6 c/km . So locally
heavy rainfall will be possible again as anomalies climb toward
+2. Temperatures should be cooler given the clouds/showers
around, but breaks of sunshine could allow for decent warming
from around Albany southward with 80s for valley locations and
70s elsewhere.

The cold front will be crossing the region Friday night where
there is a likely probability for additional showers and
thunderstorms. As Pwats remain elevated, still the threat for
heavy rainfall and any training that may occur as BUFKIT MBE
velocities remain at or below 10kts. WPC keeps the region within
a slight risk for excessive rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term period will feature seasonable warmth with rain
and thunderstorm chances. To start the period, a cold front and
upper level shortwave trough will be crossing through the area,
resulting in lingering shower chances. These features should
exit Saturday night, allowing for beautiful summer weather to
prevail for the second half of the weekend and into the start of
next week.

A couple of dry and sunny summer days are on tap Sunday and Monday
as surface and upper level ridging build into the region.
Temperatures on both days will be seasonable, with highs around 80
degrees and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Rain and thunderstorm chances return Tuesday into Wednesday as a low
pressure system approaches and moves across portions of the region.
Temperatures will continue to be seasonable, albeit a bit more
humid, as dew points climb back into the mid 60s for valley
locations.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Isolated to scattered is expected across the western/southern
Adirondacks and Lake George region this afternoon into the
early evening with the potential to impact KGFL. SO have
mentioned VCTS at GFL, but all other TAF sites should remain
dry/VFR. Some radiational fog may develop overnight tonight,
especially at KGFL if they receive rainfall this afternoon.
Outside of fog chances, VFR conditions should prevail through
the forecast period.

A westerly flow at 8 to 10 knots with some gusts in the teens
will continue this afternoon/evening before lessening to 5 kts
or less overnight.

Outlook...

Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The past 7 days of rainfall analysis shows portions of the
Adirondacks remain drier than the rest of the region However,
low level moisture in the term of dewpoints remains elevated as
fire weather concerns remain low. Convection will be rather
scattered across the Dacks into this evening to be followed by a
mainly dry forecast through Thursday. The chances for wet
weather increases into Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected into
late this afternoon and evening across the Adirondacks and Lake
George region.

Then, more unsettled weather is expected Thursday night through
Friday, as another low pressure system moves across the region.
Showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall will be
possible again Friday afternoon into Friday evening. WPC
continues with a slight risk of excessive rainfall for Friday.

Showers may linger into Saturday, before high pressure builds in
with a dry stretch of weather expected for Sunday into early next
week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JVM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV

www.weather.gov/albany

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
413 PM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084-
VTZ013>015-161100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-
Northern Saratoga-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-
Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-
Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-
Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-
Eastern Dutchess-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-
Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
413 PM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts, southern Vermont and south of the Adirondacks.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Widespread hazardous weather is low at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Friday. More locally heavy
rainfall is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ032-033-042-043-161100-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Northern Warren-Northern Washington-
413 PM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Adirondacks and Lake George
area.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected into early this
evening. There remains a marginal risk for thunderstorms to become
severe with damaging wind gusts and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Friday afternoon through Friday
evening. More locally heavy rainfall is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to relay and severe weather reports to the
National Weather Service.

www.weather.gov/albany

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
245 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018

NYZ032-151930-
Northern Herkimer-
245 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL HERKIMER COUNTY...

At 245 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles south of
Star Lake, or 21 miles north of Old Forge, moving southeast at 20
mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northern Northern
Herkimer County, including the following locations... Little Rapids,
Beaver River, Brandreth, Lyon Lake, Woods Lake and Keepawa.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

LAT...LON 4405 7506 4407 7488 4406 7485 4385 7482
      4378 7488 4395 7515 4403 7516 4407 7512
TIME...MOT...LOC 1845Z 302DEG 16KT 4402 7505

BGM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
318 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018

NYZ032-033-152000-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-
318 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN HAMILTON AND NORTH
CENTRAL HERKIMER COUNTIES...

At 317 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 12 miles north of
Big Moose, or 20 miles north of Old Forge, moving east at 30 mph.

Winds of around 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

This storm will be near...
  Forked Lake Public Campground around 350 PM EDT.
  Lake Eaton Campground around 355 PM EDT.
  Blue Mountain Lake and Lake Durant Campground around 400 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Hasbroucks, Nehasane,
Eagle Nest, Little Rapids, Quaker Beach, Deerland, Sabattis, Partlow,
Robinwood and Keepawa.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Rainfall amounts may reach a half an inch an hour from this
thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4407 7430 4382 7438 4392 7497 4406 7493
      4409 7467
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 279DEG 27KT 4400 7485

TAW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
338 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018

NYZ032-033-152015-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-
338 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN HAMILTON AND
NORTHEASTERN HERKIMER COUNTIES...

At 338 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles northeast of
Big Moose, or 15 miles northeast of Old Forge, moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

This storm will be near...
  Brown Tract Pond Campground around 350 PM EDT.
  Raquette Lake around 355 PM EDT.
  Golden Beach Campground around 400 PM EDT.
  Forked Lake Public Campground around 405 PM EDT.
  Blue Mountain Lake and Lake Durant Campground around 415 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Hasbroucks, Russian
Lake, Eagle Nest, Little Rapids, Quaker Beach, Deerland, Sabael,
Partlow, Sagamore and Keepawa.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4396 7428 4392 7434 4381 7421 4369 7424
      4382 7493 4399 7488
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 279DEG 27KT 4390 7481

TAW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
421 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018

NYZ033-152045-
Hamilton-
421 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL HAMILTON COUNTY...

At 420 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Raquette Lake,
or 17 miles east of Old Forge, moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

This storm will be near...
  Golden Beach Campground around 425 PM EDT.
  Blue Mountain Lake around 440 PM EDT.
  Indian Lake and Lake Durant Campground around 445 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Hasbroucks, Eagle
Nest, Sabael, Sagamore, Woods, Quaker Beach, Sagamore Lake and Kamp
Kill Kare.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4388 7428 4381 7422 4382 7419 4361 7424
      4372 7477 4390 7473
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 279DEG 27KT 4380 7465

TAW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
440 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018

NYZ033-042-152115-
Hamilton-Northern Warren-
440 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL HAMILTON AND
NORTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTIES...

At 440 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles northwest of
Lewey Lake Campground, or 11 miles northwest of Speculator, moving
east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

This storm will be near...
  Lewey Lake Campground around 455 PM EDT.
  Indian Lake around 505 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Christian Hill, Kamp
Kill Kare and Sabael.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4380 7407 4380 7405 4379 7405 4378 7404
      4377 7406 4375 7406 4374 7405 4351 7411
      4363 7464 4384 7458
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 279DEG 27KT 4371 7452

TAW