Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Albany, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
353 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany a cold front
through this evening. Drier and more seasonable air will follow
for Wednesday and Thursday. The next chance of showers and
thunderstorms will be Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 330 pm, cold front located roughly from Jefferson County,
NY, across northern VT and into northern ME. A few areas of
convection are ongoing. One is a broken line of storms along the
front. Another is across the southern Adirondacks and Lake
George Saratoga Region. Noted slightly enhanced low-level
moisture in the vicinity of these two areas of convection, with
dewpoints in the mid-60s. Severe thunderstorm warnings have
been issued for the latter storms, which could contain large
hail and damaging winds. SPC mesoanalysis suggests these storms
are occurring in an environment of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, and
35-40 kt deep-layer shear. More shallow convection is bubbling
across portions of the Mohawk and Schoharie Valleys. This
activity is in a slightly less favorable thermodynamic
environment.

Scattered convection is expected to continue into the early
evening hours while spreading south and eastward as large-scale
forcing for ascent increases with the approach of the cold front
and midlevel wave. Strong to marginally severe storms are
possible given the aforementioned thermodynamic and kinematic
parameters, with the best chance for severe weather from the
Capital District northward. Damaging winds are expected to be
the main threat with inverted-V type profiles and DCAPE around
1000 J/kg. Large hail also cannot be ruled out, though marginal
midlevel lapse rates and low CAPE density are mitigating
factors. Storms will be fast-moving so the threat for
flash flooding is low, but some minor urban and poor drainage
flooding cannot be ruled out especially if storms train over the
same area.

Convection is expected to wane after 00Z with the loss of
diurnal heating and the passage of the front. Much drier and
slightly cooler air should allow low temps to dip into the 40s
across the southern Adirondacks, but may not fall below the
mid-60s over the mid-Hudson Valley and northwest CT where
frontal passage will take longer to occur.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A much drier airmass will be in place Wednesday into Thursday,
with PWAT values falling AOB 0.75 inches. Also noting dewpoints
in the 40s behind the front attm in southern Quebec. Expect
plenty of sunshine with the dry airmass as high pressure builds
in. Temperatures both days will be near seasonable values.
Expect a chilly night Wednesday night with high pressure
overhead and low dewpoints. Went near to below guidance with
temps both Wednesday night and Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mean upper trough axis is forecast to be just east of our region on
Friday with flat upper ridging building into our region from the
Ohio Valley. Warm and dry weather forecast for Friday with highs
Friday in the mid to upper 80s but upper 70s higher elevations.

Weak short wave trough in northwest flow is forecast to move
southeast out of Canada and through forecast area Saturday with just
scattered showers and storms over much of the northeastern U.S.
There should be more scattered coverage Saturday and just lingering
isolated coverage Sunday. Lows Saturday in the 50s and 60s with
highs in the 70s and 80s.

However, this shortwave will act like a warm front so hot and steamy
weather may return for Sun-Tues. Lows each night generally in the
60s with highs in the 80s to around 90. Slight chance POPs for
showers/storms Sun-Mon with higher POPs on Tuesday as another short
wave approaches. Heat indices may exceed 95 on Tuesday in valley
areas requiring the issuance of heat advisories.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this
afternoon into this evening. TAFs include VCTS as coverage is
not expected to be widespread. Storms are now over far northern
NY with strongest over Saint Lawrence River Valley. They will
gradually sink southward this afternoon. Storms could reach
KGFL by 20Z and storms should be southeast of KPSF/KPOU by 03Z.

Winds will be from a westerly direction this afternoon at 5 to
15kts, shifting to a northerly direction at 5 to 15 kts tonight
and Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will end this evening as a
cold front passes, with much drier and more seasonable air in
its wake. Minimum RH values will be mainly 30 to 40 percent
Wednesday through Friday. Winds will be light to moderate out of
the north-northwest Wednesday, and light out of the north-
northwest Thursday. Some dew or patchy shallow fog is possible
early Thursday and Friday morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist through this
evening along a cold front before waning. Due to low coverage,
basin-average totals should remain below 0.25 inches, but
locally higher amounts of around an inch are possible in
thunderstorms. Storms will be fast-moving so the threat for
flash flooding is low, but some minor urban and poor drainage
flooding cannot be ruled out especially if storms train over the
same area.

Dry weather is expected to take over Wednesday through Friday.
The next chance of rainfall is Friday night into Saturday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Thompson
NEAR TERM...Thompson
SHORT TERM...Thompson
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...Thompson
HYDROLOGY...Thompson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
358 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

MAZ001-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-082>084-VTZ013>015-111200-
Northern Berkshire-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-
Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-
Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Northern Fulton-
Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-
Eastern Windham-
358 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Massachusetts, east
central New York, eastern New York and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms through this
evening. The main threat will be damaging wind gusts along with cloud
to ground lightning. Isolated severe hail is also possible.
Thunderstorms will weaken and diminish after sunset.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The next chance for thunderstorms arrives Friday night into
Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

CTZ001-013-MAZ025-NYZ058>061-063>066-111200-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Southern Berkshire-
Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-
Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
358 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts and east central New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms through this
evening. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible along with cloud
to ground lightning. Thunderstorms will weaken and diminish after
sunset.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The next chance for thunderstorms arrives Friday night into
Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
244 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2018

NYZ032-033-101945-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-
244 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL HAMILTON AND EAST
CENTRAL HERKIMER COUNTIES...

At 243 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Limekiln Lake
Campground, or 7 miles southeast of Old Forge, moving southeast at 25
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

This storm will be near...
  Lewey Lake Campground around 335 PM EDT.
  Speculator, Lake Pleasant and Moffitt Beach Campground around 345
  PM EDT.

LAT...LON 4380 7484 4371 7421 4366 7420 4336 7449
      4360 7501
TIME...MOT...LOC 1843Z 294DEG 22KT 4367 7484

JEC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
311 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2018

NYZ042-043-102015-
Northern Washington-Northern Warren-
311 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WARREN AND CENTRAL
WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

At 310 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Bolton Landing,
or near Warrensburg, moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

This storm will be near...
  Bolton Landing around 320 PM EDT.
  Huletts Landing around 330 PM EDT.
  Whitehall around 340 PM EDT.
  Comstock around 345 PM EDT.
  Granville and Poultney Village around 405 PM EDT.
  Wells around 410 PM EDT.

This Includes Interstate 87 between exits 24 and 25.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4365 7342 4364 7343 4362 7342 4359 7343
      4357 7340 4358 7338 4362 7337 4363 7330
      4358 7330 4356 7326 4353 7324 4333 7325
      4354 7384 4370 7377
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 290DEG 25KT 4359 7371

JEC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
327 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2018

NYZ033-041-042-083-102030-
Hamilton-Southeast Warren-Northern Warren-Northern Saratoga-
327 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON...
SOUTHWESTERN WARREN AND NORTHWESTERN SARATOGA COUNTIES...

At 327 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles east of
Speculator, moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

This storm will be near...
  Warrensburg around 410 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Thurman Station, Big
Hollow, Gilmantown, Girards Sugarbush, Lake Luzerne, Edwards Hill,
Fourth Lake, Conklingville, Stony Creek Station and Athol.

This Includes Interstate 87 near exit 23.

LAT...LON 4344 7447 4369 7429 4356 7371 4320 7383
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 286DEG 27KT 4358 7424

JEC

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
359 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2018

NYZ042-102045-
Northern Warren-
359 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTY...

At 359 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near North Creek, or
11 miles southeast of Indian Lake, moving east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

This storm will be near...
  North Creek around 405 PM EDT.
  Eagle Point Campground around 420 PM EDT.
  Chestertown and Scaroon Manor Public Campground around 425 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Byrnes Corners,
Starbuckville, Riparius, Christian Hill, Pottersville, Holcombville,
North River, Igerna, South Horicon and Adirondack.

This Includes Interstate 87 between exits 25 and 26.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

LAT...LON 4376 7362 4360 7365 4366 7418 4374 7416
      4377 7378
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 281DEG 29KT 4370 7406

NAS