Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Albany, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
745 PM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will diminish this
evening with the passage of the cold front. A more seasonable
airmass takes over Tuesday and should last for the remainder of the
week with much lower humidity.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
All headlines for the region have been cancelled or dropped as
of 7 PM EDT.

Leading edge of the convection was progressing east-southeast as
convective instability in its wake continues to dissipate. After
close coordination with neighboring offices and SPC, we dropped
the severe thunderstorm watch at 7 PM EDT. The cold front
remains upstream and crossing northern Lake Ontario as enhanced
1-minute GOES-16 satellite imagery reveals not much convective
upgrowth at this time. As peak heating is well done and LAPS/SPC
mesoscale windows show CAPES less than 1000 j/kg and best
thunderstorm activity upstream of the cold front, we will drop
PoPs back to chc-sct at this time.

As the remainder of the evening progresses, so does the
upstream cold front that per the HRRR/RAP will progress
southward and clear the Dacks and Lake George Saratoga Region
before midnight, Capital Region around midnight and south of I90
between 3-6 AM EDT Tuesday. So we will attempt to time this in
the forecast/grids.

Temperatures will slowly cool off with fropa from north to south
with 50s across the Dacks to near 70F for mid-Hudson Valley and
NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Overall a rather quiet period of weather is expected in the wake
of the cold front with noticeable drier and cooler/seasonable
weather as we welcome the official start of summer on Thursday.

A couple of items of note are the cold front that pushes through
the region today is expected to become quasi-stationary between
I70-I80 with a weak wave passing through the digging trough from
central Canada late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Clouds and
perhaps some showers near the I84 corridor where we will place
slight chance PoPs. Meanwhile another cold front from the north
with limited moisture is forecast to slide southward as well. At
this time, this front will be accompanied by partial cloud
coverage and a wind shift.

By Thursday, looks a really nice day setting up with a near
1020MB surface high sliding southeast from Canada across the
Great Lakes and into the northeast. Temperatures mainly into the
70s under summer sunshine as H850 temperatures are expected to
be around 10C.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A dry end to the week will transition into a wet period by the
beginning of next week. High pressure will give way to a slowly
moving system originating near the Oklahoma and Texas
panhandles. It will be centered near northern Missouri on
Friday, and is expected to reach western New York on Sunday. A
weak warm front will stay south of our forecast area through the
end of the week with this system, keeping heat at bay. Behind
the low as it moves on to the Atlantic Provinces, a cold front
from the north will usher in cooler and drier air after Monday.
High temperatures each day will range from around 70 degrees in
the higher elevations, to the lower 80s down the Hudson Valley.
Low temperatures will range from the mid 40s to around 60
degrees Friday night, and the upper 50s to mid 60s Saturday and
Sunday nights.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A front will move across the local area tonight. Some showers
and thunderstorms will be present along and ahead of the front
overnight. By Tuesday morning, it will become generally clear
with drying conditions.

Ceilings and visibilities will generally be VFR tonight. A few
sites may drop into MVFR/VFR due to shower or thunderstorm
passage. Clearing will occur from northwest to southeast between
06z to 08z. After 12z on Tuesday, VFR conditions will prevail
across the region with mostly clear skies and unrestricted
visibility.

Winds will be generally out of the south/southwest early in the
period. By 06z-08z, winds will shift to the northwest. Winds
will be generally light around 10kt with higher winds possible
in the early period due to the possibility of thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms into the evening
hours as winds become breezy as well with southwest winds
gusting up to 30 mph into the evening hours. A drier and more
seasonable airmass takes hold Tuesday and through most of the
upcoming week, with RH values falling into the 35 to 45 percent
range. North-northwesterly winds may gust to near 20 mph.
Similar temperatures and humidity Wednesday but with lighter
winds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms into this
evening and tonight as a cold front interacts with a hot and
humid airmass. There is copious moisture to work with and
potential for backbuilding storms with winds parallel to the
frontal boundary. Precipitable water values are forecast to be
2-2.25 inches, which is near the climatological daily maximum.
So storms are certainly capable of heavy rainfall, with a threat
for urban and small stream flooding as well as isolated flash
flooding. The mitigating factor will be the fast movement of the
system and antecedent conditions are quite dry the past couple
of weeks. While basin average amounts are expected to range
between 0.50 and 1.00 inches, locally higher amounts are likely.

Drier weather returns for most of the region the remainder of
the week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs for today and preliminary data...

TIED! Albany NY - 97 degrees 1957 and 2018 (records date back
to 1874)
Glens Falls NY - 93 degrees 1994 (records date back to
1949)
NEW! Poughkeepsie NY - 94 degrees in 2018. Old record of 93
degrees 1957 (records date back to 1931)

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BGM/Thompson
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...LJL/VTK
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/Thompson
HYDROLOGY...BGM/Thompson
CLIMATE...ALY Staff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
721 PM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-191100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-
Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-
Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-
Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-
Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-
Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
721 PM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts, east central New York and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There remains a chance for thunderstorms this evening as a cold
front slides southward tonight. These thunderstorms will still have
the capability to produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
641 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0404 PM     TSTM WND DMG     POUGHKEEPSIE            41.70N  73.92W
06/18/2018                   DUTCHESS           NY   911 CALL CENTER

            *** 1 INJ *** VACANT BUILDING COLLAPSED ONTO OCCUPIED
            BUILDING TRAPPING ONE OCCUPANT UNDER DEBRIS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1800227

11

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
722 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BEACON                  41.50N  73.97W
06/18/2018                   DUTCHESS           NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1800228

11

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
723 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WAPPINGERS FALLS        41.60N  73.92W
06/18/2018                   DUTCHESS           NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1800229

11

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
724 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FISHKILL                41.53N  73.89W
06/18/2018                   DUTCHESS           NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1800230

11

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
755 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     POUGHKEEPSIE            41.69N  73.92W
06/18/2018                   DUTCHESS           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            UPROOTED TREES AND LARGE BRANCHES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1800231

LJL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
757 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0226 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE SCHUYLER           43.10N  75.09W
06/18/2018                   HERKIMER           NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN.

0239 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 ESE MOHAWK            42.98N  74.92W
06/18/2018                   HERKIMER           NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN.

0244 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SALISBURY               43.13N  74.84W
06/18/2018                   HERKIMER           NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN.

0320 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW BURNT HILLS       42.93N  73.97W
06/18/2018                   SARATOGA           NY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            WIRES DOWN ON JOCKEY STREET NEAR CHARLTON ROAD.

0352 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSW GANSEVOORT        43.15N  73.67W
06/18/2018                   SARATOGA           NY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TREE DOWN ON WIRES NORTH OF DUNKIN ROAD.

0355 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW SARATOGA SPRINGS  43.08N  73.79W
06/18/2018                   SARATOGA           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE DOWN BLOCKING HAMILTON STREET

0404 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HICKEYS CORNERS         43.10N  73.71W
06/18/2018                   SARATOGA           NY   RETIRED NWS EMP.

            TREES SNAPPED/UPROOTED ALONG ROUTE 50.

0404 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W GRAFTON             42.76N  73.49W
06/18/2018                   RENSSELAER         NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

0404 PM     TSTM WND DMG     POUGHKEEPSIE            41.70N  73.92W
06/18/2018                   DUTCHESS           NY   911 CALL CENTER

            *** 1 INJ *** VACANT BUILDING COLLAPSED ONTO OCCUPIED
            BUILDING TRAPPING ONE OCCUPANT UNDER DEBRIS.

0405 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GREENWICH               43.09N  73.50W
06/18/2018                   WASHINGTON         NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            WIDESPREAD TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

0406 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNE HOOSICK FALLS     42.92N  73.34W
06/18/2018                   RENSSELAER         NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

0406 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HOOSICK FALLS           42.90N  73.36W
06/18/2018                   RENSSELAER         NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN

0406 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW RED OAKS MILL      41.67N  73.90W
06/18/2018                   DUTCHESS           NY   911 CALL CENTER

            MANY TREES DOWN.

0407 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE HOOSICK FALLS     42.93N  73.34W
06/18/2018                   RENSSELAER         NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN.

0411 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N WHITEHALL           43.57N  73.42W
06/18/2018                   WASHINGTON         NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MANCHESTER CENTER       43.18N  73.04W
06/18/2018                   BENNINGTON         VT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A 1 FOOT DIAMETER TREE WAS DOWNED BY THUNDERSTORM WINDS
            AT 1244 BEECH STREET.

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     POUGHKEEPSIE            41.69N  73.92W
06/18/2018                   DUTCHESS           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            UPROOTED TREES AND LARGE BRANCHES DOWN.

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S POUGHKEEPSIE        41.68N  73.92W
06/18/2018                   DUTCHESS           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE LIMBS DOWN. A VERY LARGE BRANCH THAT BROKE OFF IS
            LYING ON POWER LINES.

0416 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE MIDDLE FALLS       43.14N  73.49W
06/18/2018                   WASHINGTON         NY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            MULTIPLE WIRES, POLES AND TREES DOWN COUNTY ROUTE 113
            AND COUNTY ROUTE 70 TOWN OF GREENWICH

0418 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SHAFTSBURY              43.00N  73.19W
06/18/2018                   BENNINGTON         VT   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N SCHUYLERVILLE       43.12N  73.59W
06/18/2018                   SARATOGA           NY   THRUWAY

            RTE 4 AT STARKS KNOB RD. IN THE TOWN OF NORTHUMBERLAND
            IS CLOSED IN BOTH DIRECTIONS DUE TO DOWNED TREES.

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNE ARLINGTON         43.11N  73.13W
06/18/2018                   BENNINGTON         VT   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            VT ROUTE 7A IS CLOSED BETWEEN DUNHAM RD AND HILL FARM
            RD. DUE TO TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN.

0438 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE MIDDLE FALLS      43.14N  73.51W
06/18/2018                   WASHINGTON         NY   THRUWAY

            RT 40 AT COTTRELL RD IN THE TOWN OF GREENWICH IS CLOSED
            IN BOTH DIRECTIONS DUE TO A DOWNED TREE.

0449 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TOWNSHEND               43.04N  72.67W
06/18/2018                   WINDHAM            VT   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

0453 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LONDONDERRY             43.23N  72.81W
06/18/2018                   WINDHAM            VT   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN

0457 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PUTNEY                  42.97N  72.52W
06/18/2018                   WINDHAM            VT   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRATTLEBORO             42.86N  72.57W
06/18/2018                   WINDHAM            VT   NWS EMPLOYEE

            LARGE TREE BRANCHES DOWN ALONG INTERSTATE 91 JUST NORTH
            OF EXIT 3.

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BEACON                  41.50N  73.97W
06/18/2018                   DUTCHESS           NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WAPPINGERS FALLS        41.60N  73.92W
06/18/2018                   DUTCHESS           NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FISHKILL                41.53N  73.89W
06/18/2018                   DUTCHESS           NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1800202 ALY1800203 ALY1800204 ALY1800224 ALY1800226
ALY1800216 ALY1800205 ALY1800208 ALY1800227 ALY1800206 ALY1800209
ALY1800210 ALY1800215 ALY1800211 ALY1800213 ALY1800221 ALY1800231
ALY1800232 ALY1800217 ALY1800214 ALY1800207 ALY1800218 ALY1800212
ALY1800219 ALY1800225 ALY1800222 ALY1800223 ALY1800228 ALY1800229
ALY1800230

LJL