Alert archive / New York / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2018

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Albany, NY

June 18, 2018Hamilton County, Herkimer County, New York

NWS Albany, NY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 18, 2018, 3:09 PM EDT for Hamilton County, Herkimer County, New York. It was in force for 48 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 18, 2018, 3:09 PM EDT (19:09 UTC)
Expired
Jun 18, 2018, 3:57 PM EDT
In force
48 min
Issued by
NWS Albany, NY
Area
Storm-based polygon
Hail
0.75 in
Wind
60.0 mph

Counties Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY

The radar

The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 76 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

IssuedProductOfficeLasted
Jun 18, 2:49 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPC5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 7.2 hours before the alert went out and 125 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2018-06-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2018-06-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 167 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-297 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1389 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
167 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
159 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

409 
WUUS51 KALY 181909
SVRALY
NYC041-043-182015-
/O.NEW.KALY.SV.W.0030.180618T1909Z-180618T2015Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Albany NY
309 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2018

The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southwestern Hamilton County in eastern New York...
  Central Herkimer County in eastern New York...

* Until 415 PM EDT.

* At 308 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles southeast
  of McKeever, or 12 miles south of Old Forge, moving east at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* This severe thunderstorm will be near...
  Moffitt Beach Campground around 340 PM EDT.
  Speculator around 345 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include
Nobleboro, Atwell, Perkins Clearing, Wheelertown, Rudeston, West
Canada Lakes, Clockmill Corners, First Lake, Herkimer Landing and
Caswell Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Please report hail size...damaging winds and reports of trees down to
the National Weather Service by email at Alb.Stormreport@noaa.gov...
On Facebook at www.facebook.com/nwsalbany or twitter @nwsalbany

&&

LAT...LON 4375 7484 4378 7432 4331 7446 4338 7508
      4349 7510
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 279DEG 44KT 4354 7496 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MSE
2 follow-up statements
332 
WWUS51 KALY 181931
SVSALY

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
331 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2018

NYC043-181940-
/O.CAN.KALY.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-180618T2015Z/
Herkimer NY-
331 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL HERKIMER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
eastern New York.

LAT...LON 4349 7477 4375 7481 4378 7432 4331 7446
      4336 7486
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 271DEG 45KT 4358 7455 

$$

NYC041-182015-
/O.CON.KALY.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-180618T2015Z/
Hamilton NY-
331 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY...

At 330 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles west of
Speculator, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Lewey Lake Campground and Moffitt Beach Campground around 340 PM 
  EDT.
  Speculator around 345 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Perkins
Clearing, Rudeston, West Canada Lakes, Clockmill Corners, Caswell
Lake, Mountain Home, Shaker Place, Sled Harbor, Piseco and
Morehouseville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4349 7477 4375 7481 4378 7432 4331 7446
      4336 7486
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 271DEG 45KT 4358 7455 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MSE
329 
WWUS51 KALY 181957
SVSALY

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
357 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2018

NYC041-182006-
/O.CAN.KALY.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-180618T2015Z/
Hamilton NY-
357 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning has
been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
eastern New York.

LAT...LON 4349 7477 4375 7481 4378 7432 4331 7446
      4336 7486
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 279DEG 44KT 4353 7410 

$$

JVM

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Albany, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 18, 2:16 PM EDT, 53 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 18, 2:16 PM EDT, 53 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
216 PM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions are in store this afternoon. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, becoming
more widespread this evening into tonight with heavy rainfall
and gusty winds possible. A more seasonable airmass takes over
Tuesday and Wednesday with much lower humidity.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
     Heat advisory in effect for most zones below 1000 feet
elevation in eastern NY and southern VT...

     Slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening...

     Slight risk of excessive rainfall this afternoon into
tonight...

18Z sounding is currently being prepared as we are in close
coordination with SPC and neighboring offices.

Mesoscale Disc 130 PM...1-min rapid scan GOES-16 data shows CU
field mainly just west of the Hudson with some more mature CU
across the Dacks and portions of the Mohawk Valley and Saratoga
Region. There is a pre-frontal trough extending from the Finger
Lakes, Syracuse and the Dacks yet lapse rates were rather weak
in the mid levels. Yet low level lapse rates were increasing
hence the radar reflectivities mainly in the lower levels at the
present time. Per SPC and LAPS hourly analysis, SBCAPES were
near or above 3000 j/kg across upstate NY and as upstream
convection across Lake Ontario moves into this airmass,
expectation is for more robust convective upgrowth. In fact,
updraft helicities in the mesoscale models are quite strong from
the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region and Berks with these
signatures tracking east-southeast. So main update was to hourly
values and tweaked PoPs/Wx.

Prev Disc, most of the area has cleared of cloud cover this
morning allowing temperatures to quickly warm into the upper 70s
and lower 80s. Dew point temperatures have also increased into
the mid 60s to low 70s, from the upper 50s early this morning.
With temperatures expected to climb into the upper 80s to mid
90s area-wide today, conditions will be oppressive and
dangerous. Weather wise, the remainder of the morning should
remain dry. However, latest CAMS indicate convection gets going
around 18Z (2pm local time) across the northern zones then
traverses southward with the passage of the pre-frontal trough.
Then a second round of convection looks possible with the
passage of the cold front closer to 22-02Z. So in terms of the
forecast package, have adjusted hourly temps and pops in the
near-term to reflect most recent obs and sent updates to NDFD
and web servers.

Prev Disc...As of 640 am, just a couple of showers from Lewis
County to the Syracuse area tracking eastward. These are
associated with elevated warm/moist advection and increasing
(albeit weak) instability. Slight chance PoPs added to the
southern Adirondacks/western Mohawk Valley for the next couple
hours to account for this activity. Elsewhere, temps range from
upper 50s to lower 70s. Warmth and moisture in the form of mid-
60s to upper 70s dewpoints are on the doorstep and should begin
to invade eastern New York this morning.

Early morning Disc...

Early morning water vapor shows cirrus/altostratus continuing
to spill over the upper level ridge into the northeastern US. Elevated
warm front tracking west to east through the region early this
morning with H850 temps forecast to rise to 18-20C as winds turn
westerly. At the surface, west to east-oriented cold front is
located well to the north over central QC and southern ON. Moist
prefrontal airmass will advect into the local area today as
surface winds turn southwesterly. Mid-60s to lower 70s dewpoints
exist in this airmass, and models suggest we should attain
these values in the afternoon. Heat advisory remains in effect
for most areas in eastern NY and southern VT below 1000 feet
elevation as forecast soundings show potential to mix above 850
mb and send high temps into the lower 90s. Will add western
Ulster to the heat advisory as the lower elevations in that zone
should see criteria met. However, the degree of heat will be
dependent upon coverage of afternoon convection, which will be
discussed below.

Forecast area will remain in the prefrontal airmass today as the
front's north to south track through the region will not occur
until after 00Z. This should allow moderate to high instability
to develop, with HREF mean suggesting 2000-3000 J/kg SBCAPE
developing by early afternoon. Forecast soundings depict little
to no cap with diurnal mixing allowing the convective
temperature to be reached. Forcing for ascent in the prefrontal
airmass is weak, but it may not take much to initiate
convection. Weak midlevel forcing for ascent may occur in the
form of weak, low-amplitude convectively generated disturbances
from upstream, and surface triggers may be present in the form
of a prefrontal trough and upslope/terrain circulations. Trend
in the HREF members has been to develop scattered clusters of
thunderstorms in the 18-22Z timeframe, targeting the I-90
corridor and points south. Will increase PoPs in this area but
cap it at chance given the uncertainties with respect to
coverage. HREF indicates lower potential for afternoon
convection north of I-90 during the afternoon, but the chance is
nonzero, so have fairly uniform chance PoPs throughout the area.
Deep-layer shear is fairly weak at 20-30 kt with mainly
unidirectional shear, so longevity of cells is in question, and
storm mode is expected to be multicellular. But given the
instability in place and midlevel dry air, these storms could
contain borderline severe winds. Hail and tornadoes are not
likely given the warm, moist airmass and relatively
unidirectional shear, respectively, but they cannot be totally
ruled out.

PoPs increase from north to south 22-04Z as large-scale forcing
increases in advance of the front. Deep-layer shear increases so
could see some more organized convection with isolated to
scattered severe winds possible. Severe threat should diminish
with sunset as instability diminishes. Locally heavy
rainfall/isolated flash flooding is possible as well. Winds
through a good deal of the atmosphere are parallel to the
boundary, which could promote training of cells. PWAT values
increase to 2-2.5 inches, H85/H7 dewpoints increase to in excess
of 15/5C, respectively, and freezing levels get up above 16000
ft, all excellent parameters for heavy rain. The mitigating
factor for flash flooding will be fast movement of the system.

Rainfall will taper off north to south in the wake of the
frontal passage 04-09Z, with much drier air filtering in as
dewpoints fall into the mid-50s to mid-60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
For the short term period, the local forecast area will be on
the southern periphery of a longwave trough centered over
eastern Canada. We'll return to near climatological highs
Tuesday in the postfrontal airmass. Deep mixing, low dewpoints,
plenty of sunshine, and a bit breezy. High pressure builds in
Tuesday night, setting the stage for some good radiational
cooling conditions. Went closer to cooler MOS guidance compared
with blended grids.

Some uncertainty Wednesday/Wednesday night as the trough
sharpens and some guidance develops a surface wave along the
stationary boundary strung out across the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio
Valley. Latest ECMWF/GFS/GEFS mean develop this wave enough to
bring in rain showers to portions of the eastern Catskills/Mid
Hudson Valley/Northwest CT late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
NAM meanwhile is dry. Will introduce slight/low chance PoPs in
these zones starting Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
Elsewhere, another dry and seasonable day is expected with
partial coverage of high clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Guidance is in good agreement a longwave trough should be moving off
to the east with heights rising over the Northeast as ridging builds
in to close out the work week. While at surface, high pressure
slides across the region. Expecting fair weather with seasonal
temperatures.

A closed off upper level low over the Plains will be moving eastward
into the ridge as we head into the weekend. This low is expected to
open and deamplify as its advanced farther eastward by a shortwave
moving over the Rockies. It's also expected to be drawn
northeastward as shortwave energy rotates about a low over Hudson's
Bay Canada. The result is a low pressure system moving across the
region over the weekend bringing some rainfall to the local area
after another stretch of fair weather. Seasonal temperatures are
expected to continue just with more humid conditions as the low
pressure system approaches and moves through.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A front will move across the local area tonight. Ahead of the
front, a pre frontal trough will bring showers and
thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening. After 07-09z the
front will clear through the region brining fair weather back
into the region.

Ceilings and visibilities will be VFR early this afternoon. As
showers and thunderstorms develop from northwest to southeast,
ceilings and visibilities may drop to MVFR/IFR. Winds will be
out of the southwest this afternoon 10-15 knots with isolated
gusts to 25kts. As the front moves through the region
overnight, winds will shift to the west-northwest around 10-15
knots.

Outlook...

Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Hot and humid today with RH values only falling to the 45 to 70
percent range. Becoming breezy as well with southwest winds
gusting up to 30 mph. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon, becoming likely this evening into
tonight. A drier and more seasonable airmass takes hold Tuesday,
with RH values falling into the 35 to 45 percent range. North-
northwesterly winds may gust to near 20 mph. Similar
temperatures and humidity Wednesday but with lighter winds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will become
more widespread this evening and tonight as a cold front
interacts with a hot and humid airmass. There is copious
moisture to work with and potential for backbuilding storms with
winds parallel to the frontal boundary. Precipitable water
values are forecast to be 2-2.25 inches, which is near the
climatological daily maximum. So storms are certainly capable of
heavy rainfall, with a threat for urban and small stream
flooding as well as isolated flash flooding. The mitigating
factor will be the fast movement of the system. While basin
average amounts are expected to range between 0.50 and 1.00
inches, locally higher amounts are likely.

Drier weather returns for the remainder of the week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs for today...

Albany NY - 97 degrees 1957 (records date back to 1874)
Glens Falls NY - 93 degrees 1994 (records date back to 1949)
Poughkeepsie NY - 93 degrees 1957 (records date back to 1931)

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ038>041-043-
     048>050-052>054-059>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...None.
VT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ015.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BGM/Thompson
NEAR TERM...BGM/Thompson/JVM
SHORT TERM...Thompson
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...Thompson
HYDROLOGY...Thompson
CLIMATE...ALY Staff
Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 18, 2:58 PM EDT, 11 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
258 PM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018

NYZ059>061-063>066-191200-
Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-
Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
258 PM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is portions of the eastern Catskills,
mid Hudson Valley and Taconics.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening, as a cold front moves southward. Isolated damaging wind
gusts will be the main threat from these thunderstorms.

In addition, thunderstorms may contain locally heavy rainfall, and
could lead to some flooding of poor drainage and low lying areas and
possibly isolated flash flooding.

Thunderstorms should track toward the east southeast at 20 to 40
mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed later today.

NYZ038-191200-
Southern Herkimer-
258 PM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 187 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southern Herkimer County.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening, as a cold front moves southward. Isolated damaging wind
gusts will be the main threat from these thunderstorms.

In addition, thunderstorms may contain locally heavy rainfall, and
could lead to some flooding of poor drainage and low lying areas and
possibly isolated flash flooding.

Thunderstorms should track toward the east southeast at 20 to 40
mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-083-084-VTZ015-191200-
Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Washington-
Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-
Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Eastern Windham-
258 PM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 187 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Capital Region,
Mohawk Valley, Saratoga Region and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening, as a cold front moves southward. Damaging wind gusts will
be the main threat from these thunderstorms.

In addition, thunderstorms may contain locally heavy rainfall, and
could lead to some flooding of poor drainage and low lying areas and
possibly isolated flash flooding.

Thunderstorms should track toward the east southeast at 20 to 40
mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

MAZ001-191200-
Northern Berkshire-
258 PM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the northern Berkshires.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening, as a cold front moves southward. Damaging wind gusts will
be the main threat from these thunderstorms.

In addition, thunderstorms may contain locally heavy rainfall, and
could lead to some flooding of poor drainage and low lying areas and
possibly isolated flash flooding.

Thunderstorms should track toward the east southeast at 20 to 40
mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed later today.

NYZ032-033-042-051-082-VTZ013-014-191200-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Northern Warren-Western Albany-
Northern Fulton-Bennington-Western Windham-
258 PM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 187 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Adirondacks and
southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening, as a cold front moves southward. Damaging wind gusts will
be the main threat from these thunderstorms.

In addition, thunderstorms may contain locally heavy rainfall, and
could lead to some flooding of poor drainage and low lying areas and
possibly isolated flash flooding.

Thunderstorms should track toward the east southeast at 20 to 40
mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NYZ047-191200-
Schoharie-
258 PM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 187 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Schoharie County.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening, as a cold front moves southward. Isolated damaging wind
gusts will be the main threat from these thunderstorms.

In addition, thunderstorms may contain locally heavy rainfall, and
could lead to some flooding of poor drainage and low lying areas and
possibly isolated flash flooding.

Thunderstorms should track toward the east southeast at 20 to 40
mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

CTZ001-013-MAZ025-NYZ058-191200-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Southern Berkshire-
Western Greene-
258 PM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
southern Berkshires and portions of the Taconics.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening, as a cold front moves southward. Isolated damaging wind
gusts will be the main threat from these thunderstorms.

In addition, thunderstorms may contain locally heavy rainfall, and
could lead to some flooding of poor drainage and low lying areas and
possibly isolated flash flooding.

Thunderstorms should track toward the east southeast at 20 to 40
mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed later today.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jun 18, 2:15 PM EDT, 54 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
215 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2018

NYZ038>040-082-181900-
Southern Fulton-Southern Herkimer-Northern Fulton-Montgomery-
215 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN FULTON...SOUTHERN
HERKIMER AND NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...

At 214 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near New Hartford,
moving east at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

This storm will be near...
  Frankfort around 225 PM EDT.
  Ilion, Herkimer and Mohawk around 230 PM EDT.
  Middleville around 235 PM EDT.
  Little Falls around 245 PM EDT.
  Dolgeville around 250 PM EDT.
  St. Johnsville around 255 PM EDT.
  Stratford around 300 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Ingham Mills, Jersalem
Hill, West Frankfort, Spinnerville, Corrado Corners, Curtis, Farrel
Corner, Countryman, North Ilion and Gulph.

This Includes Interstate 90 between exits 29A and 30.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4317 7511 4326 7466 4293 7462 4296 7521
      4305 7522
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 265DEG 34KT 4304 7523

JVM
Local storm report, Jun 18, 2:46 PM EDT, 23 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
246 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0241 PM     TSTM WND GST     FAIRFIELD               43.14N 74.91W
06/18/2018  M51 MPH          HERKIMER           NY   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

JQUINLAN
Special weather statement, Jun 18, 2:56 PM EDT, 13 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
256 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2018

NYZ032-033-181945-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-
256 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN HAMILTON
AND NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES...

At 255 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 7 miles northwest of Big Moose to
McKeever. Movement was east at 55 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these storms.

These storms will be near...
  Big Moose around 300 PM EDT.
  Alger Island Public Campground around 310 PM EDT.
  Inlet, Limekiln Lake Campground and Eagle Bay around 315 PM EDT.
  Forked Lake Public Campground and Eighth Lake Campground around
  320 PM EDT.
  Lake Eaton Campground, Blue Mountain Lake and Golden Beach
  Campground around 325 PM EDT.
  Lewey Lake Campground around 335 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Eagle Nest, Little
Rapids, Beaver River, Minnehaha, Carter Station, Quaker Beach, First
Lake, Deerland, Partlow and Robinwood.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these storms pass.

LAT...LON 4397 7425 4392 7434 4387 7428 4359 7439
      4356 7510 4372 7513 4402 7500 4411 7442
      4412 7428
TIME...MOT...LOC 1855Z 259DEG 46KT 4392 7497 4363 7510

JVM
Special weather statement, Jun 18, 2:59 PM EDT, 10 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
259 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2018

NYZ039>041-049-050-082-181945-
Southern Fulton-Eastern Schenectady-Northern
Fulton-Montgomery-Southern Saratoga-Northern Saratoga-
259 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL SCHENECTADY...WEST
CENTRAL SARATOGA...FULTON AND NORTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...

At 259 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Ephratah, or 11
miles north of Canajoharie, moving east at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

This storm will be near...
  Caroga Lake around 305 PM EDT.
  Caroga Lake Public Campground around 310 PM EDT.
  Gloversville, Johnstown and Fonda around 315 PM EDT.
  Tribes Hill around 320 PM EDT.
  Amsterdam, Mayfield, Fort Johnson and Cranberry Creek around 325
  PM EDT.
  Broadalbin and Hagaman around 330 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Meco, West Perth,
Munsonville, Sweets Crossing, Fultonville, Church Corners, Glenwild,
Broadalbin Junction, Berkshire and Fical Corners.

This Includes Interstate 90 near exit 28.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4296 7469 4316 7469 4320 7405 4292 7404
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 271DEG 38KT 4306 7460

JVM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Albany, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 18, 2:15 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementALYFulton45 min
Jun 18, 2:30 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYFulton, Herkimer, Montgomery45 min
Jun 18, 2:56 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementALYHamilton, Herkimer49 min
Jun 18, 2:59 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementALYFulton46 min
Jun 18, 3:59 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementALYRensselaer31 min
Jun 18, 4:06 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYRensselaer, Washington54 min
Jun 18, 4:12 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYDutchess63 min
Jun 18, 5:16 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYFulton, Montgomery, Schoharie59 min
Jun 18, 6:33 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementALYRensselaer27 min
Jun 18, 6:48 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYDutchess, Ulster34 min
Jun 18, 7:15 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYDutchess24 min
Jun 18, 7:33 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYColumbia57 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in New York, 2018Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.