River Flood Warning 34, NWS Albany, NY

783 
WGUS81 KALY 211753
FLSALY


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
1253 PM EST Fri Dec 21 2018

NYC027-111-211823-
/O.CAN.KALY.FL.W.0034.000000T0000Z-181221T2310Z/
/POUN6.1.ER.181221T1435Z.181221T1601Z.181221T1704Z.NO/
1253 PM EST Fri Dec 21 2018

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Hudson River At Poughkeepsie.
* At 12 PM Friday the stage was 4.4 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 5 feet.
* Impact...At 5 feet...Minor flood stage. Minor flooding of 
  lowlands, boat docks and boat launches.

&& 
 
                 Fld   Observed              Forecast
                                      1 pm  7 pm  1 am  7 am  1 pm
Location        Stg   Stg  Day  Time   Fri   Fri   Sat   Sat   Sat

Hudson River
  Poughkeepsie  5.0    4.4 Fri 01 PM   4.3   1.1   3.1   0.8   3.3
 
&& 
 
LAT...LON 4194 7402 4195 7385 4159 7388 4160 7403
                                      

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
644 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system will bring a widespread steady rainfall
today, some of which may be locally heavy and cause flooding.
Gusty winds are also expected across the higher elevations. A
few lingering showers will continue into the weekend, with
temperatures cooling back down towards normal levels.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Flood watch is in effect from 1 AM today through 1 AM Saturday
for the entire forecast area.

A wind advisory is in effect for the western Adirondacks,
eastern Catskills, Taconics, southern Green Mountains and
Berkshires through 11 AM this morning.

Rain continues to expand northward and coverage of heavier rain
expanding as well. Highly anomalous deep moisture associated
with this system along with strong upper dynamics and low level
jet forcing and isentropic lift will result in an unusually
heavy rain event for this time of year over our region. The
precipitable water values and strength of low level jet are at
about the maximum values seen this time of year. The rain will
especially be enhanced in southeast facing areas of higher
terrain in the eastern Catskills, southern Green mountains,
Berkshires and Litchfield Hills. Isolated thunder is also
possible in southern areas this afternoon.

Strong winds will also affect the higher elevations across the
entire region as the boundary layer wind increases above 50 mph
from the south and southeast this morning. The axis of strongest
winds shifts east into central New England by afternoon. Another
secondary southerly boundary layer jet tracks into our region
later this afternoon and night ahead of the leading edge of
colder air but the secondary low level jet looks to be just
under 50 mph.

The strong south to southeast winds and warming of the boundary
layer with varying rain intensity will help mix some of the
warmer air to the surface, warming temperatures into the 50s in
many places where it has not warmed already. Some protected
valleys within areas of terrain may struggle to get into the 40s
but all areas will see just rain with the storm. Maybe around 60
in parts of the mid Hudson Valley and perhaps due to downslope
around Bennington VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Coverage of the heavier and steadier rain will decrease in
western and northern areas late this afternoon and evening until
the leading edge of the colder air approaches and its associated
low level frontogenesis. The boundary layer thermal gradient is
expected to be quite tight as it tracks east through tonight and
Saturday morning. So, another area of rain or showers should
accompany the wind shift later Friday night through Saturday
morning. Midlevel lapse rates are quite extreme and depending on
how much moisture is along the front, some sort of convective
line or band could develop if the instability is as extreme as
is seen in guidance.

The timing of the wind shift and onset of cold advection at the
surface is tricky. Temperatures are not expected to cool much
tonight as the stronger cold advection is expected through the
day Saturday. Temperatures may rise only a degree or two during
the day Saturday, stay steady and then fall in the afternoon
with gusty west to northwest winds. Temperatures in the 40s most
areas but 30s western and northern areas, falling in the
afternoon.

Cold air spreads across the region Saturday night through Sunday
with some isolated lake effect snow shower activity extending
into the southern Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley. Highs
Sunday in the upper 30s to lower 40s with a few mid 40s southern
areas and upper 20s northern areas. Another weak northern stream
piece of upper energy approaches Sunday night with scattered
snow showers possible across the entire region.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The period starts out on Monday with a short wave trough and
associated cold front moving across the region. This system will
likely pick up some moisture from Lake Ontario, with some light
accumulating snow showers possible mainly outside the Hudson
Valley in the higher terrain. Despite conditional lake induced
instability, the flow will be disrupted by the trough passage
and then northwest flow sets up in its wake. So chances for any
organized/sustained lake effect snow bands is uncertain at this
time. Based on the NW flow trajectory, the western Mohawk Valley
and Schoharie Valley may see some lake effect snow showers.

The ECMWF is a bit slower with the short wave passage Monday
night, so will keep mention of chance pops for snow showers
areas northwest of the Capital District, with any snow
accumulations light. Tuesday (Christmas Day) should be dry with
near normal temperatures, as a surface ridge of high pressure
moves across the region.

Dry conditions should prevail through Tuesday night with the
surface ridge still in place. However, the next chance of snow
showers will return for Wednesday as another short wave trough
moves through in a zonal progressive pattern.

Another area of high pressure will move in Wednesday night, but
sources of model guidance diverge on how strong the high will
be and how quickly it will be displaced by a potentially
stronger storm system emerging from the central Plains states.
Will mention chance pops for now and monitor trends.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A large storm system will continue to bring widespread moderate
to heavy rainfall through much of today, resulting in poor
flying conditions.

Mainly IFR conditions are expected to prevail through much of
the morning into early/mid afternoon hours due to the persistent
rain. There will be some occasional MVFR conditions as well
during this time. Conditions expected to improve to MVFR later
this afternoon (except at KPSF), once the steady rainfall moves
east of the region. However, there will still be plenty of low
level moisture in place, so confidence is low on improvement
later in the 24 hour TAF period.

Surface winds will generally be southeast around 5-10 kt with
some occasionally higher gusts around 20 kt. Winds will become
southerly around 5-10 kt later this afternoon.

Low level wind shear will continue to affect all four
terminals today, as a very strong low level jet moves overhead
with wind speeds of 45-55 kt around 2000 ft AGL. With wind
speeds expected to be much lighter at the surface, this will
result in LLWS continuing through the early to mid afternoon
hours.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHSN.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Christmas Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire forecast area
through 1 AM Saturday.

A storm system will bring a widespread rainfall to the region
for through this evening. Some additional showers will also
occur tonight into Saturday as well. Rainfall amounts will
range between one and three inches, with the highest totals that
could locally exceed three inches expected across the eastern
Catskills, Berkshires and NW CT. The milder temperatures will
also allow for some snow melt. The snow pack is the greatest
across the southern Adirondacks, southern Greens, and northern
Berkshires. Strong southeast winds and rising temps/dewpoints
will allow snow to quickly melt across the higher elevations,
especially the Berkshires and Catskills, where temps will be
warmest.

River forecasts from the NERFC, as well as MMEFS guidance,
suggest that minor flooding can be expected along the Hoosic,
Walloomsac, Esopus and Housatonic Rivers. Moderate flooding
cannot be ruled out either, especially along the Hoosic. These
rivers are expected to crest later today (although some parts
of the Housatonic could take until early Saturday).

In addition, rainfall rates exceeding 0.25 inches per hour
could allow for some minor flooding of urban, low lying and poor
drainage areas today. Any areas that have a frozen ground or
ice cover could see runoff issues as well.

Cooling temperatures and precipitation tapering to just showers
is expected over the weekend into early next week. This should
allow river and stream levels to gradually recede.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch through late tonight for CTZ001-013.
NY...Flood Watch through late tonight for NYZ032-033-038>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     Wind Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for NYZ032-033-054-
     058-061-063.
MA...Flood Watch through late tonight for MAZ001-025.
     Wind Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for MAZ001-025.
VT...Flood Watch through late tonight for VTZ013>015.
     Wind Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for VTZ013.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
459 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018

NYZ038>043-047>053-082>084-VTZ014-015-221100-
Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-
Northern Warren-Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-
Southern Washington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
459 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the western and central Mohawk
Valley, Lake George saratoga Region, Schoharie Valley, Capital
District and Windham County Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NYZ032-033-221100-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-
459 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Herkimer and Hamilton
counties.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

CTZ001-013-NYZ059-060-064>066-221100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Eastern Greene-
Western Columbia-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
459 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut and
the mid Hudson Valley in east central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Isolated non severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

MAZ001-NYZ054-VTZ013-221100-
Northern Berkshire-Eastern Rensselaer-Bennington-
459 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Berkshire, eastern
Rensselaer counties in eastern New York and Bennington county.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

MAZ025-NYZ058-061-063-221100-
Southern Berkshire-Western Greene-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-
459 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Berkshire, western
Greene, eastern Columbia and western Ulster Counties.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

Isolated non severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
336 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018

NYZ042-VTZ015-211100-
Northern Warren-Eastern Windham-
Including the cities of Bolton Landing, Johnsburg, North Creek,
North River, Warrensburg, Hague, Brattleboro, Guilford Center,
West Brattleboro, and Bellows Falls
336 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018

...LOCALIZED ICY CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES EARLY THIS
MORNING...

With air temperatures hovering in the lower to mid 30s and rain
continuing early this morning, localized icing on untreated
sidewalks and roadways is still possible. Exercise caution if
traveling. Temperatures will continue to gradually warm through
the early morning, ending the icing threat.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
550 AM EST FRI DEC 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST BENNINGTON STATE AIRPOR 42.89N  73.25W
12/21/2018  M47 MPH          BENNINGTON         VT   ASOS

0430 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NE COPAKE             42.14N  73.52W
12/21/2018  M40 MPH          COLUMBIA           NY   NYSM

0450 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NE BEACON             41.53N  73.95W
12/21/2018  M42 MPH          DUTCHESS           NY   NYSM

0451 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 6 ESE PLEASANT VALLEY   41.68N  73.72W
12/21/2018  M42 MPH          DUTCHESS           NY   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1801523
EVENT NUMBER ALY1801524
EVENT NUMBER ALY1801525
EVENT NUMBER ALY1801526

JPV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
641 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018

NYZ048>052-211500-
Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-
Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Including the cities of Mariaville, Delanson, Duanesburg,
Schenectady, Rotterdam, Burnt Hills, Ballston Spa, Mechanicville,
Clifton Park, Waterford, Westerlo, Altamont, Berne, Knox,
Preston Hollow, and Albany
641 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018

...Foggy conditions expected through the morning commute...

Rain and locally dense fog is occurring in and around the Capital
District with visibilities locally less than a half mile.
Motorists are advised to reduce speeds, use caution this morning
and allow extra distance between yourself and other cars.