Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
407 PM EDT Sun Aug 12 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will remain west of the area through
Monday...bringing a period of unsettled weather to the region.
The trough moves east of the region on Tuesday and mainly dry
weather is expected on Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 400 PM EDT Sunday...

Latest WV satellite clearly shows the upper-level low spinning
over the Ohio River Valley. Thunderstorms have developed
throughout Virginia and the Carolinas as a large part of the
eastern CONUS continues to be under moist SW flow aloft. Closer
to our area, isolated to scattered showers and t-storms have
developed over far SE VA/NE NC. However, the main (broken) line
of t-storms has formed along and ahead of a frontal boundary
over the Piedmont. This line of storms will steadily move
eastward through the evening hours. While the t-storms over SE
VA/NE NC will dissipate by (or shortly after) sunset, the
western area of t-storms will only gradually weaken through the
night (should finally give way to scattered showers over SE
VA/NE NC after 2 AM). Anticipate that the line of t-storms will
impact the Richmond area between now and 9 PM. Main threats
again will be gusty winds and heavy rain possibly leading to
localized flooding. Anticipate that the highest flood threat
will be in urban areas in addition to spots that saw heavy
rainfall yesterday. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 60s
NW to the low-mid 70s in SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Sunday...

While isolated to scattered showers may persist over the eastern
part of the CWA Monday morning, expect additional t-storms to
develop Monday afternoon (most numerous northeast of a Farmville to
Williamsburg line) as the aforementioned upper-level low will still
be located to our northwest. Currently have PoPs between 35-60%
Monday afternoon (highest NE, lowest SW). While Monday will not be a
complete wash out, periods of locally heavy rain will again be
possible with any showers/t-storms that form, and will continue to
note this potential in the HWO. All of the latest 12/12z guidance is
in agreement that the upper low will be located well northeast of
the region by Tuesday afternoon. This will allow the best moisture
to be pushed to the east of the CWA. Despite this, isolated to
scattered showers/t-storms are possible across the region from
Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday evening. Have PoPs no higher
than 30% on Tuesday, and continue to anticipate that most areas will
stay dry. Wednesday will be dry across the entire CWA as sfc high
pressure settles into the Appalachians and the trough of low
continues to move away from the region.

Expect highs in the mid to upper 80s on Monday and Tuesday, warming
to around 90 on Wednesday (as we will have partly to mostly sunny
skies and dry conditions). Overnight lows will be in the mid to
upper 60s inland with low 70s expected in coastal areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Sunday...

Latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF/GEM continue in good agreement for the
beginning of the medium range Wed night through early Fri, then
diverge quite a bit going into next weekend. Wed night/Thu/Thu night
look dry under the influence of ridging aloft and a developing
trough into the upper midwest/western Great Lakes. Thu looks mostly
sunny and will likely be the hottest day of the week with highs into
the lower to mid 90s inland and upper 80s/lower 90s near the coast.
Dew pts should mix out to the mid/upper 60s to lower 70s so heat
indices are not expected to become headline worthy. The ridge breaks
down Fri into the weekend, the GFS and GEM being faster at doing
this than the ECMWF and WPC progs. Will have mainly diurnal/aftn-
evening tstms Fri with PoPs to 30-40% (would be higher if GFS
verifies and lower if ECWMF is correct). Highs Fri into the lower
90s most areas. The GFS/GEM are then drier by the weekend, while the
ECMWF slows the front down and stalls it in the vicinity of the
region. The latter solution seems more plausible given the time of
year and is generally more supported by WPC and superblend. Will
therefore maintain chc PoPs both Sat/Sun. Temperatures will cool off
a few degrees for highs (mainly 85-90 F) given more clouds and
moisture. Lows will be mainly in the upper 60s to lower-mid 70s
through the entire period.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Sunday...

Variable cloudiness this aftn with mainly VFR conditions now
that cigs have risen above 3,000 ft most places. Spotty showers
are starting to develop, with an increase in coverage of
showers/tstms expected over the next few hrs. Appears the best
chance for tstms to affect main terminals will be from about 20Z
through 00Z inland and 22Z-03Z near the coast. Have terminal-
specific TEMPO groups in all the TAF sites for 2-3 hrs somewhere
within that timeframe. Brief IFR/LIFR vsbys are likely in heavier
downpours with cigs mainly MVFR. Marginal risk for severe storms,
so locally gusty/strong winds will be possible, though minimal
in overall coverage. At least some scattered showers are
expected to persist through much of the night. Patchy fog/areas
of low stratus are most probable over the Piedmont (west of main
terminals) but will be possible at any location depending on how
much rainfall occurs.

OUTLOOK...Another day with mainly diurnal convection expected
Monday/coverage of showers/tstms will tend to be a little lower
than today. Improving conditions and decreased chances for
precipitation are expected Tue-Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EDT Sunday...

Benign marine conditions this afternoon with winds averaging less
than 15 knots over the waters. A frontal boundary remains near the
waters allowing for variable wind directions this afternoon. Biggest
hazard to boaters the afternoon through tonight will be the
potential for showers and thunderstorms. A few thunderstorms may
produce gusts in excess of 30 knots through the first half of
tonight. Variable winds become WSW by Tuesday as the front moves
offshore and high pressure builds back into the region. Winds are
expected to remain at or below 15 knots through the forecast period
outside of any showers or thunderstorms. Waves remain around 1 foot
and seas around 2 feet except near 3 feet at times out 20 nm.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...AJB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
358 PM EDT Sun Aug 12 2018

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-
093-095>100-509>525-132000-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Fluvanna-Prince Edward-
Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-
Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-
Dinwiddie-Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-
Mathews-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-
Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-
Accomack-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-
Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
358 PM EDT Sun Aug 12 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern
Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected through
the overnight hours. Heavy downpours and gusty winds will be
possible in any thunderstorm, with localized flooding possible,
especially in urban or low-lying areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are also expected
Monday afternoon and evening. Heavy downpours and gusty winds will
be possible in any thunderstorm, with minor flooding possible,
especially in urban or low-lying areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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