Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
357 PM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach the area from the north late
tonight. The front pushes south through the area on Thursday,
then stalls over North Carolina Thursday night into Friday. This
front lifts back north as a warm front Friday night into
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 400 PM EDT Wednesday...

A quasi-stationary frontal boundary is draped along the coast
from about VA Beach northward up to the Peninsulas. Meanwhile, a
cold front extends across the Ohio Valley. A lee-side trough has
begun to pop tstms across our Piedmont counties which will
propagate eastward into this evening. Additional pulse storms
are found over SE VA and NE NC. Consensus of the CAMS brings
the activity over the Piedmont eastward to the coast as a
broken line thru 00z or so. Additional development (possible
second line of shwrs/tstms) is then shown to cross the region
from late evening to around 2 am Thu. Have trended PoPs through
the evening hours to show possibility of both bouts of
convection, with likely Pops this afternoon/evening to account
for the ongoing activity. Despite SPC slight risk outlook this
afternoon/evening, am not expecting much in the way of severe
storms with effective shear <25 kt and weak lapse rates. Yes,
there can still be an isolated downburst with the strongest
storms, but the majority will just feature heavy rain due to
PW'S ~2.0". Warm and muggy overnight with lows in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Wednesday...

A cold front sags south through the area on Thursday, settling
near the VA/NC border late. Best chc of showers/tstms will shift
into central/srn VA/NE NC (50-60% PoPs), with 30-40% PoPs NE.
Highs Thursday will be in the mid/upper 80s to low 90s (around
80F for the immediate Atlantic MD coast). By Friday, high
pressure builds over coastal New England resulting in onshore
flow, with the aforementioned frontal boundary remaining
stationary across north-central or NE NC. Will generally have
highest PoPs (50-70%) across central/southern VA into NE NC
Thursday night, perhaps lifting a bit further north overnight.
By Friday, highest PoPs will be inland (50-70%) where some
embedded tstms will be possible, to 30-40% along the coast.
Guidance is starting to settle toward a consensus on high
temperatures Friday, from the mid 70s far NW to the low 80s RIC
metro to the mid/upr 80s SE VA/NE NC. Our meandering frontal
boundary lifts back north as a warm front Friday night into
Saturday morning. Highest PoPs will shift north with the front
during this time. By Saturday, expecting temps to warm up again.
Will also have to watch a shortwave progged to cross the region
in the afternoon that could touch of a line of tstms. Highs in
the 80s to low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Wednesday...

Shower/thunderstorm chances continue Saturday night-Sunday morning
for the eastern third of the CWA as a surface trough continues to
linger across the region. A potent shortwave dives southeastward
from Canada to the northeastern US on Monday. The associated surface
low pressure system will drag a cold front southward across the
region late Sunday into Monday bringing another chance for showers
and thunderstorms. The frontal boundary pushes south during the day
on Monday with a few lingering showers/t-storms possible across
mainly southern portions of the CWA. The latest 20/12z ECMWF has
only isolated-scattered showers/t-storms Sunday night-Monday while
the GFS has more widespread t-storms. Thus, opted to maintain no
higher than 50% PoPs Sunday night-Monday. Behind the cold front,
high pressure builds in north of the area bringing drier and cooler
conditions to the region from Tuesday through the middle of next
week.

Sunday will likely be the warmest day of the extended period with
with highs in the lower 90s for most areas. Highs will cool to the
mid-upper 80s on Monday with low-mid 80s expected on Tuesday.
Warming up slightly on Wednesday with highs between 83-87. Expect
morning lows between 70-75 on Sunday and Monday cooling into the 60s
for Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Wednesday...

Showers/tstms will be possible over central/SE VA into the
evening. VFR conditions will prevail through this evening with
sct-bkn CU of 4-6kft, but with brief MVFR/IFR conditions and
locally strong wind gusts possible in any tstms.

The cold front shifts farther S by Thursday settling near the
VA/NC border, with the best potential for aftn/evening
showers/tstms mainly over central/srn/SE VA and NE NC. High
pressure settles over New England Friday resulting in onshore
flow. Remaining unsettled as an upper level trough approaches
from the SW with a 20-40% chc of showers along the coast, and
40-60% farther inland. The potential for aftn/evening
showers/tstms will continue Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday...

No headlines anticipated in the short term this evening into Friday.
Current observations show generally light and variable winds over
the waters. Seas range from 1 to 2 feet and waves 1 foot. A weak
frontal boundary drops into the region later this evening which will
bring increasing winds and the chance for showers or thunderstorms.
Winds become southeast 10 knots or less this evening and then
southerly overnight. Winds shift to the N/NW on Thursday as the
boundary moves south of the region. The gradient strengthens Friday
into Friday night, bringing onshore winds of 10 to 15 knots and the
potential for 5 foot seas across the northern zones. The flow
becomes more southeasterly Saturday morning and then southerly as a
warm front lifts over the waters. Breezy conditions are expected
Saturday and Small Craft Advisories may be needed for both winds and
seas into Sunday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...AJB/ERI
AVIATION...AJZ/JDM
MARINE...AJB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
401 PM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-
095>100-509>525-212015-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Fluvanna-Prince Edward-
Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-
Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-
Dinwiddie-Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-
Mathews-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-
Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-
Accomack-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-
Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
401 PM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina,
central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north
central Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening.
Storms will be capable of heavy rain and localized strong wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ021>025-212015-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
401 PM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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