Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Wakefield, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1147 AM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A moist southerly flow, coupled with a low pressure trough
aloft over the Tennessee Valley and southeast U.S., will result
in an unsettled pattern through at least the middle of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1145 AM EDT Sunday...
Issued a Flash Flood Watch for the Northern Neck and Middle
Peninsula west to Caroline County until Midnight. In the near
term, scattered showers are moving through the northern part of
the forecast area in response to an upper vort max moving
through the region in the southern flow aloft. Meanwhile,
additional storms will develop this afternoon along the warm
frontal boundary which is currently near the VA/NC border. These
storms will move northward this afternoon/evening along with the
front. Latest CAMS guidance suggests that some training of echos
will develop in the deep southerly flow, focusing on an area
from South Hill through the Northern Neck. This is where the
HRRR and NAM suggest the best low level moisture convergence
will be as well. With the potential for additional heavy rain
today, combined with the heavy rain that occurred much of the
area north of I-64 yesterday, have opted to go with a Flash
Flood Watch for the northern neck and middle Peninsula, west to
Caroline County. Three hour Flash Flood Guidance around 2 to 2.5
inches in these areas, and we could easily see this in an hour
in the heaviest of downpours.

As of 415 AM EDT Sunday...

Early this morning, sfc low pressure that brought rain to much
of the region during Sat, was moving thru SE PA. Also, upper low
and sfc low pressure was spinning over the OH valley, while a
weak sfc low was over wrn NC/SC. Latest radar showed a few
showers associated with that weak low were moving thru portions
of scntrl and SE VA and NE NC. This activity will weaken and end
over the next couple of hours.

But, late this morning into this aftn, more shower/tstm activity
will develop, esply over cntrl and wrn counties, as moist SSE
sfc flow interacts with more energy lifting ENE in advance of
the upper low pressure area to the west. Highs today will range
fm the upper 70s/near 80 extrm NW, to the mid to upper 80s ESE.

This activity will shift twd the coast tonight into early Mon
morning, while weakening. Lows tonight in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 415 AM EDT Sunday...

Aforementioned upper low will meander over the southeast U.S.
tonight into Tue night, resulting in continued deep southerly
flow, and continued good chances for showers/tstms across the
region. High chc to likely Pops expected over the entire region
on Mon. Mon night/Tue, Atlc upper ridge begins to build westward,
allowing main axis of heaviest rainfall to shift into the
central and western parts of the area. Another 1-3 inches of
rain will be possible across the region into Tue night.

With deep moisture in place, the sky will continue to be mostly
cloudy, with day time max temps still a few degrees below normal
both Mon and Tue. Highs both days mainly in the lower to mid
80s. Low temps will mostly be between 70-75.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Saturday...

Decent model agreement continues through much of the extended period
as two well-established high pressure systems over the Plains and
the Atlantic keep rain chances sandwiched in between over our CWA.
Expect high-end chance to likely PoPs areawide through at least the
beginning of next weekend. Wednesday, likely PoPs stretch as far
east as the Delmarva, especially during the afternoon/evening.
Thursday morning, kept the best moisture and likely PoPs across the
northern half of the area...before likely PoPs return for much of
our area Thursday afternoon/evening. Friday and Saturday mornings
may be the "driest" portions of the extended, especially across the
western third of the CWA, but do expect daytime heating to spark
additional showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.

The EURO and GFS begin to diverge on late Saturday and Sunday, with
the EURO trying to weaken the Atlantic ridge and thereby decreasing
the opportunity for rainfall. Not only does the 12z GFS disagree
with a weakening Atlantic ridge, but it also brings another low
pressure system through the Ohio Valley...sending additional energy
our way and increasing rain chances Sunday into the start of the
following week. While "all day" rain does not look to be the case,
each day this week will feature shower/tstm chances to some degree.
Keeping an umbrella and some golashes handy would not be such a bad
idea.

Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s Wed-Sat, with the
warmest day being Friday. Spots that receive rainfall will be an
average of 5-8+ degF cooler. Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s
will carry us through Sunday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Sunday...

Low pressure that brought rain to much of the region during Sat
was north of the CWA, and will lift into PA during this morning.
However, digging upper trough to our west resulting in weak sfc
low pressure over wrn NC/SC was pushing sctd showers and
isolated tstms in our SW counties early this morning. Expecting
MVFR or VFR conditions thru 12-13Z this morning at all TAF sites
except SBY, where IFR cigs will likely linger. Mainly VFR
conditions should then prevail at all TAF sites by 14-15Z with
SSE winds picking up and lasting into this evening. Today into
Wed will see unsettled wx conditions at all terminals, with
periodic showers/tstms, with most tstms in the diurnal 16Z to
04Z time frame. Overall flying conditions should be MVFR/VFR,
with periodic IFR in pcpn, and possibly low stratus during the
overnight into early morning hours.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 415 AM EDT Sunday...

1002mb low pressure is located over SE PA early this morning, with
a broader area of low pressure situated over the Ohio Valley. The
wind has become SW aob 15kt for most of the marine area early this
morning, but remains SSW 20-25kt, with gusts near 30kt N of
Parramore Is. This should continue through about 7 am, with the
wind diminishing later this morning. Seas remain 6-10ft N, but
have subsided to 3-4ft S. SCA flags continue for the ocean N of
Cape Charles, and have ended elsewhere.

The wind becomes SSE 10-15kt for most of the area later this morning
through midday, and then increases to 15-20kt for the lower Bay and
ocean by this aftn. A strong LLJ around 950mb develops tonight into
Monday, with wind expected to be 15-25kt for the Bay and ocean. Seas
build to 4-6ft S tonight, then 5-7ft by Monday. Seas across the N
initially subside to 5-7ft today, and then potentially build to 6-8ft
tonight into Monday. SCA flags N of Cape Charles have been extended
through Monday, with SCAs for the lower Bay later this aftn through
Monday, the upper Bay tonight into Monday, and the srn ocean tonight
into Monday. SCAs may eventually be needed for the Sound/Lower James
later tonight into Monday.

The pattern persists through midweek with a SSE wind of at least 10-
20kt continuing along with seas remaining aob 5ft. SCAs conditions
are likely to continue into midweek for portions of the marine
area.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 520 AM EDT Sunday...

Low pressure has lifted N of the region early this morning. The
wind has shifted to SW and tidal departures have slightly
diminished, and no flooding is expected with the next high tide,
which is the lower astronomical tide. The wind is expected to
become SSE today and increase tonight, and this could help to
produce minor flooding during the higher astronomical tide
tonight, primarily along the Bay-side of the MD Ern Shore, and
the tidal Potomac and Bay adjacent to the Nrn Neck.

A High Risk of rip currents will continue today for the nrn beaches,
with a moderate risk for the srn beaches. Dangerous shorebreak will
continue from Chincoteague to Ocean City.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
As of 320 PM EDT Saturday...

KDOX radar is inoperable due to a failure of the motor. All
parts will not arrive until Tuesday July 24. Return to service
is unknown at this time.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ064-075>078-
     084>086-517>522.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT
     Monday for ANZ656-658.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG/MRD
SHORT TERM...TMG/WRS
LONG TERM...BMS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1152 AM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

VAZ064-075>078-084>086-517>522-231600-
Caroline-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Gloucester-
Middlesex-Mathews-Western King William-Eastern King William-
Western King and Queen-Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-
1152 AM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Virginia,
eastern Virginia and north central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Unsettled weather will continue today and tonight. Showers and
thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rainfall and possible flash
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Unsettled weather will continue Monday through Wednesday. Showers
and thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ021>024-NCZ012>017-030>032-VAZ048-060>062-065>069-079>083-087>090-
092-093-095>097-509>516-523>525-231600-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Northampton-Hertford-
Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-
Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-
Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George-
Charles City-New Kent-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-
Southampton-Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-
Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-
Western Chesterfield-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
York-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson-
1152 AM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, south
central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Unsettled weather will continue today and tonight. Showers and
thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rainfall. Some minor flooding
of streams and roadways is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Unsettled weather will continue Monday through Wednesday. Showers
and thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ102-VAZ098-231600-
Eastern Currituck-Virginia Beach-
1152 AM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

Unsettled weather will continue today and tonight. Showers and
thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Unsettled weather will continue Monday through Wednesday. Showers
and thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ025-VAZ099-100-231600-
Maryland Beaches-Accomack-Northampton-
1152 AM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, eastern
Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

Unsettled weather will continue today and tonight. Showers and
thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Unsettled weather will continue Monday through Wednesday. Showers
and thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MRD

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
124 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

VAZ075-076-221830-
Richmond-Westmoreland-
124 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN RICHMOND AND
CENTRAL WESTMORELAND COUNTIES...

At 123 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Hague, or near
Warsaw, moving north at 20 mph. An additional strong storm was
located near Newland, moving north at 20 mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms. In
addition, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches in one hour are possible
with this storms.

Locations impacted include...
Warsaw, Montross, Haynesville, Newland, Coles Point, Hague, Lerty,
Ethel, Currioman Landing, Threeway, Mount Holly, Oldhams, Stratford
Hall, Lyells, Erica, Piney Grove, Kremlin, Westmoreland State and
Templeman.

If you see lightning or hear thunder...you are at risk. Take shelter
indoors immediately. If you cannot find shelter in a building a
vehicle provides safety from lightning.

Strong wind gusts are possible with this storm. These wind gusts are
capable of knocking down tree limbs...small or weakened trees...and
blowing around trash cans...potted plants...lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

LAT...LON 3816 7684 3817 7676 3815 7661 3811 7660
      3810 7658 3800 7661 3797 7663 3796 7663
      3792 7664 3802 7689 3819 7690
TIME...MOT...LOC 1723Z 181DEG 16KT 3801 7670

MRD