Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Wakefield, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
402 PM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area this evening into early Monday
morning. High pressure will build from the Great Lakes Monday,
toward the Southern New England coast Tuesday, and offshore by
Wednesday. Meanwhile, low pressure tracks across the Carolinas
Monday night into Tuesday and then off the Outer Banks by
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 400 PM EDT Sunday...

Current GOES water vapor imagery depicts a subtle shortwave
trough tracking across the region. At the surface, a lee- side
trough has developed, and the main cold front is still well to
the NW over the Ohio Valley. MLCAPE values average 1500-2000J/kg
with Effective Shear of 40-45kt across the far nrn tier of the
area, and 30-40kt for central portions. Showers/tstms developed
over the higher terrain and are becoming more organized along
the lee-trough, with some isolated cells ahead of the main
cluster. Isolated damaging wind gusts and some large hail are
possible through this evening. PoPs are mainly isolated to
scattered (20-40%) from central VA late this aftn toward the
coast by this evening. PoPs gradually taper off overnight as
drier air arrives from the NW along with decreasing clouds. Hot
and humid this aftn with temperatures in the upper 80s to low
90s. Still warm tonight with lows ranging from the upper 60s NW
to the mid 70s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Sunday...

24/12z ECMWF/NAM/CMC have taken a more pessimistic turn from
Monday night through Wednesday for srn VA/NE NC, while the
24/12Z GFS still brings drier air trough the region Monday night
into Tuesday. High pressure is progged to build from the Great
Lakes Monday toward the Srn New England coast Tuesday, then
offshore Wednesday. Meanwhile, and upper low is progged to
trundle across the Carolinas Monday night and Tuesday and off
the Outer Banks Wednesday. This could result is some bands of
showers and embedded tstms in low-level easterly flow. 20-30%
PoPs have been introduced for the far srn tier of the area along
with increased cloud cover. Farther N, drier and partly cloudy
to mostly clear conditions are expected to prevail. Highs Monday
through Wednesday will mainly be in the 80s, with lows
primarily in the 60s, with low 70s across the SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Sunday...

An approaching mid and upper-level trough with an attendant
shortwave will result in a chance for showers and thunderstorms
Thursday morning through the early afternoon. Showers may linger
across the south into Friday morning, but there is enough model
disagreement on this that chance PoPs could be removed in later
updates.

High pressure builds in later on Friday and through the remainder of
the weekend, per the 12z global models, keeping much of the area
rain-free. However, would like to see better run-to-run consistency
before completely pulling slight chance PoPs out of the forecast.
Considering that it is summertime and dew points are expected to be
in the 70s with southerly flow, would hesitate to completely rule
out an isolated shower/storm across the area Fri, Sat, and Sun
afternoon.

Expect high temperatures in the low to mid 90s Thu-Sun with lows in
the low to mid 70s. Glancing at the beginning of July, GFS and EURO
ensembles both suggest that warmer temperatures will sign up for an
extended stay over the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Sunday...

Isolated to scattered (20-40% chc) showers/tstms are expected to
pass across the region later this aftn into this evening.
Confidence is not high at this time for a direct impact at a
given terminal, so only VCTS has been included in the 18z TAFs.
Sct cu early this aftn with bases ~4-6kft becoming bkn later
this aftn and evening. A SW wind will average 8-12kt through the
aftn. A cold front crosses the area later tonight with the wind
shifting to N and drier air will move into the region. Partly
sunny Monday with passing high clouds and sct aftn cu and a NNE
wind of 6-12kt. There is a 20-30% chc of aftn showers/tstms near
ECG given lingering low-level moisture and surface convergence.

High pressure builds N of the region Monday night and Tuesday as
low pressure trundles across the Carolinas. Mostly clear/sunny N
to partly to occasionally mostly cloudy S. A low chc of showers
will continue for NE NC. Low pressure lingers off the Outer
Banks into Wednesday as another area of low pressure moves into
the Great Lakes. A weak front crosses the area Thursday and high
pressure potentially returns Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 PM EDT Sunday...

No headlines necessary with this forecast package. A cold front
currently over northern VA/MD drops through the waters tonight, with
10-15 kt SW winds becoming N/NW behind the front into Mon. Sfc high
pressure then builds along the NE/Mid Atlantic coast Mon night and
Tue, pushing offshore through mid week. Next chance of marginal SCA
conditions arrives Wed night/Thu due to increasing southerly flow
ahead of an approaching frontal boundary.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued a flood warning for the Mattaponi River at Bowling Green
based off the latest gauge readings this morning.

A flood warning remains is in effect for the North Anna and upper
Pamunkey Rivers due to the combination of the heavy rainfall and
increased dam releases at Lake Anna. The increased dam releases
have been terminated, but it will still take some time for the
water to flow through the basin.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ015>017-031-
     032-102.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/TMG
LONG TERM...BMS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MAS
HYDROLOGY...AKQ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1024 AM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

NCZ015>017-031-032-102-251430-
Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-Chowan-Perquimans-
Eastern Currituck-
1024 AM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Additionally, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected late
this afternoon and early this evening. Some of the storms may
produce strong wind gusts, small hail, and brief heavy downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ013-014-030-VAZ093-095>098-523>525-251430-
Hertford-Gates-Bertie-Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-
Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-York-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson-
1024 AM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Heat indices are expected to reach 100 to 104 degrees this
afternoon.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon
and early this evening. Some of the storms may produce strong wind
gusts, small hail, and brief heavy downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ021>025-NCZ012-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-099-100-509>522-
251430-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
Northampton-Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-
Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-
Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George-
Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-Greensville-
Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-Accomack-Western Louisa-
Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
1024 AM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern
Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
early this evening. Some of the storms may produce strong wind gusts,
small hail, and brief heavy downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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