Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Wakefield, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
220 PM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north of the area this morning. A cold
front will approach from the northwest late Sunday, then drop
across the area Sunday evening into Monday morning. High
pressure will build in from the north Monday afternoon into
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1020 AM EDT Saturday...

A warm front is located from the central VA Piedmont to the MD
Ern Shore as of 10 am. Some light showers are quickly tracking
NE toward the MD Ern Shore, but otherwise most of the area is
rain-free. Mostly cloudy to overcast conditions are occurring
across the nrn half of the area, with mostly sunny conditions S.
Temperatures range from the upper 60s/low 70s N of the front to
the mid 80s S of the boundary.

The warm front lifts north of the region and winds become SSW
and increase a bit over the entire area by midday. A lee side
trough developing, combined with the approach of shortwave
energy and moderate instability, will then result in more
showers and tstms forming this aftn into this evening. This
activity will move ewrd and offshore late this evening into the
overnight hrs. SPC has portions of cntrl and ern VA, and the
Lower MD ern shore in a slight risk for severe tstms this aftn
into this evening. The main threats will be damaging winds and
large hail.

The sky will become partly to mostly sunny today with highs
ranging fm the mid 80s to lower 90s. Heat indices likely reach
around 100F over far SE VA and NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 430 AM EDT Saturday...

Very warm and still rather humid on Sun, as winds will be more
WSW in advance of an actual cold front approaching fm the NW.
Partly to mostly sunny with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Isolated to sctd showers and tstms (20-40% Pops) will be
possible fm late Sun aftn into Mon morning, as the front pushes
into and acrs the region. Lows Sun night will range fm the upper
60s to mid 70s. Mon will be dry and slightly less humid, as high
pressure starts to build in fm the north. Highs will mainly be
in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 340 PM EDT Friday...

A ridge of high pressure builds in from the north on Tuesday as
a cold front and rain exit well to the south. This will provide
drier and cooler weather with afternoon highs in the low to
middle 80s. Dewpoints in the lower 60s will aid in making
Tuesday even more pleasant...much different than the upper
70/near 80 degree dewpoints we have been experiencing.

Mid-level troughing arrives as high pressure moves offshore
Wednesday, and the GFS tries to spark showers and thunderstorms over
the northwest corner of our CWA in the afternoon. The EURO keeps wet
weather slightly further west. Like most rain events this time of
year, these appear to be diurnally driven, dissipating by late
evening. Highs Wednesday will return to the upper 80s. Models
diverge in solutions regarding timing/placement of rain Thursday and
Friday, but expect better chances mid-morning Thursday and again
Friday afternoon.

Temperatures by Thursday will warm into the lower 90s and push the
mid 90s by Friday. With southerly winds in play, expect muggy
conditions and nighttime temperatures in the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Saturday...

Sct showers/tstms are developing as of 18z in vicinity of a
trough over the Piedmont. Otherwise, sct-bkn cu with bases
~3-5kft and a SW wind of 8-12kt. Any showers/tstms will be
capable of producing brief IFR conditions in heavy rain along
with strong wind gusts. Showers/tstms should dissipate this
evening, with a slight chc of showers lingering overnight. WSW
flow prevails Sunday, with sct cu and a 20-30% chc of
aftn/evening tstms.

A cold front finally drops through the region Monday. Mainly dry
with a northerly wind. However, there is a slight chc of aftn
sea-breeze showers/tstms at ECG. High pressure and drier air
prevail Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure moves offshore
by Wednesday and Thursday with a chc of aftn/evening
showers/tstms by Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

Marie fog developing along the eastern shore beaches as the flow
remain onshore ahead of the warm frontal passage. Thus, went
ahead and hoisted a marine dense fog advisory thru 12Z for now.

Latest MSAS has a frontal boundary nearly stationary across the
James River and southern Ches Bay. Winds have been just about every
direction possible over the past several hours due to the numerous
rounds of shwrs/tstms. The boundary is progged to lift north as a
warm front today allowing winds to become SSE most areas as the day
progresses. Speeds remain blo 20 kts, so no SCA for winds expected.
However, seas across the northern coastal waters will avg 4 to 6 ft
(highest out near 20 nm) through tonight so went ahead and extended
the SCA there mainly for seas thru 10Z Sun.  Despite the southerly
wind direction, WNA has backed off a bit on seas so held off on
any SCA's there due to the lower confidence.

A cold front will move across the waters Sun night, shifting winds
to the north by Mon, NE Mon nite then ESE Tue.  No real big push of
cold air seen attm so kept winds/seas blo SCA levels for now.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The river flood warning for the Rivanna at Palmyra has been
cancelled as the water level has dropped below flood stage. A
flood warning is also in effect for the North Anna and upper
Pamunkey Rivers due to the combination of heavy rainfall and
increased dam releases at Lake Anna. The increased dam releases
have been terminated, but it will still take some time for the
water to flow through the basin. Therefore, the warning has been
extended at least through this evening.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Bishops Head and Lewisetta peaked with levels just above minor
flooding overnight with several other points reaching action stage.

No issues expected with the early high tide cycle today as it will
be the lower of the two, but Bishops Head may reach minor flooding
once again with tonights high tide around 03Z with several other
points reaching action stage. Levels are progged between 1 to 1.5 ft
above normal.

A moderate rip current risk today along the eastern shore beaches
with low risk at VA Beach and the northern OB.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RIC ended up with 7.61 inches of rain Friday. See RERRIC for details.
This is the second all time daily rainfall record at RIC. The all-
time daily rainfall record at RIC is 8.79 inches set on August 12,
1955 associated with Hurricane Connie.

In addition, ORF set a new daily rainfall record of 2.28 inches Friday.
See RERORF for details.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...AJZ/TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG/JAO
LONG TERM...BMS/ERI
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MPR
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
206 PM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018

VAZ062-064-068-069-075-510>513-515-516-241815-
Goochland-Caroline-Amelia-Powhatan-Westmoreland-Eastern Louisa-
Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
206 PM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, east
central Virginia and north central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon into
this evening. The main threats will be damaging winds and large
hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ076>078-080>086-088>090-092-093-514-517>525-241815-
Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Dinwiddie-Prince George-
Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-Sussex-Surry-
James City-Southampton-Isle of Wight-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-Western King William-
Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-Eastern King and Queen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson-
206 PM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 205 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, east
central Virginia, eastern Virginia, south central Virginia and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ095>098-241815-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Norfolk/Portsmouth-
Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-
206 PM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 205 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ099-100-241815-
Accomack-Northampton-
206 PM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 205 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Virginia and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ021>023-241815-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-
206 PM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM
EDT SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon into
this evening. The main threats will be damaging winds and large
hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ024-025-241815-
Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
206 PM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon into
this evening. The main threats will be damaging winds and large
hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ048-060-061-065>067-509-241815-
Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-
Western Louisa-
206 PM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia and south
central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into
this evening. The strongest storms will contain gusty winds and
heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ079-087-241815-
Brunswick-Greensville-
206 PM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 205 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Virginia and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
228 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2018

VAZ081>083-090-231915-
Charles City-New Kent-Prince George-James City-
228 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PRINCE GEORGE...
CHARLES CITY...CENTRAL NEW KENT AND NORTHWESTERN JAMES CITY
COUNTIES...

At 228 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Garysville, or
near Hopewell, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
New Kent, Charles City, Talleysville, Roxbury, Adkins Store,
Ruthville, Burrowsville, Garysville, Providence Forge, Holdcroft,
Barhamsville, Jordans Point, Taylors Corner, Chickahominy Shore,
Wayside, Mountcastle, Lanexa, Colonial Downs, Barnetts and New Hope.

If you see lightning or hear thunder...you are at risk. Take shelter
indoors immediately. If you cannot find shelter in a building a
vehicle provides safety from lightning.

LAT...LON 3715 7712 3722 7728 3759 7708 3744 7676
TIME...MOT...LOC 1828Z 207DEG 27KT 3727 7718

BMS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
245 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2018

VAZ077-078-231930-
Northumberland-Lancaster-
245 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2018

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN
NORTHUMBERLAND AND CENTRAL LANCASTER COUNTIES...

At 243 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered over Kilmarnock,
moving northeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with
this storm. In addition...Rainfall amounts of up to 1 inch are
possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Kilmarnock, Urbanna, Fair Port, Lancaster, Tangier, White Stone,
Wicomico Church, Byrdton, Browns Store, Weems, Regina, Senora,
Slabtown, Brook Vale, Bertrand, Reedville, Lilian, Millenbeck,
Edwardsville and Foxwells.

Strong wind gusts are possible with these storms. These wind gusts
are capable of knocking down tree limbs...small or weakened
trees...and blowing around trash cans...potted plants...lawn
furniture and other light outdoor objects.

Motorists should use extra caution in the vicinity of these storms.
Be prepared for rapid changes in weather and road conditions. Heavy
rain could cause ponding of water on roads...and possible minor
flooding of ditches and poor drainage areas.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike more than 10 miles away from a thunderstorm.
Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3780 7604 3784 7605 3787 7620 3780 7623
      3777 7623 3775 7627 3769 7626 3766 7627
      3765 7626 3758 7637 3760 7643 3761 7643
      3761 7646 3764 7657 3795 7635 3789 7624
      3789 7619 3788 7619 3787 7605 3783 7599
TIME...MOT...LOC 1843Z 224DEG 19KT 3769 7641

jfoster

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