Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Wakefield, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
342 PM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary located just north of the Virginia North
Carolina border early this morning, will gradually lift back
north as a warm front later today into Saturday morning. A cold
front will drop across the area Sunday night into Monday
morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 345 PM EDT Friday...

Flash Flood Watch continues for much of Central VA, Tidewater
including Hampton Roads and the Peninsulas through this evening.
A sharp boundary persist across the region from the lower
Chesapeake Bay to Richmond and Farmville. Showers and storms
were already developing by mid afternoon along and south of the
boundary. Increased upper support for thunderstorm activity
will approach form the west through late afternoon and into
this evening as an upper shortwave moves across. This should
result in increasing coverage of showers and storms from now
through 8 pm. As coverage increases and storms lift NE some
training may set up resulting in rapid heavy accumulations of
rainfall and possible flooding. In addition due to the
combination of a low level boundary, increased shear and
instability there is a threat of severe storms. Damaging wind
and isolated tornadoes are the primary threats. The sunshine
today south of the boundary has aided in destabilization.

Showers and storms will gradually end from SW to NW later
tonight. The heavy rainfall threat persist until around midnight
tonight. Some heavy rain may linger over MD through around 3 am.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Friday...

The frontal boundary will lift north of the area by Sat
morning. The highest Pops will shift to the northern counties
late tonight into Sat morning. SSW winds will pick up across the
the region Sat aftn. This along with a mix of sun and clouds
will push temps back into the upper 80s to lower 90s over most
areas. The heat index across southeast VA and northeast NC will
run around 100-102 degrees with mid to upper 90 heat indices
elsewhere. A shortwave trough is progged to cross the region in
the aftn/evening that could touch off a line of mainly diurnally
driven tstms. A sfc trough/weak cold front will move acrs the
area late Sat night thru Sun morning, with an actual cold front
then dropping acrs the region Sun night into Mon morning. Have
maintained chance PoPs with the trough overhead possibly kicking
off scattered showers/tstms. Highs on Sun in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Monday will be dry and cooler behind the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 340 PM EDT Friday...

A ridge of high pressure builds in from the north on Tuesday as
a cold front and rain exit well to the south. This will provide
drier and cooler weather with afternoon highs in the low to
middle 80s. Dewpoints in the lower 60s will aid in making
Tuesday even more pleasant...much different than the upper
70/near 80 degree dewpoints we have been experiencing.

Mid-level troughing arrives as high pressure moves offshore
Wednesday, and the GFS tries to spark showers and thunderstorms over
the northwest corner of our CWA in the afternoon. The EURO keeps wet
weather slightly further west. Like most rain events this time of
year, these appear to be diurnally driven, dissipating by late
evening. Highs Wednesday will return to the upper 80s. Models
diverge in solutions regarding timing/placement of rain Thursday and
Friday, but expect better chances mid-morning Thursday and again
Friday afternoon.

Temperatures by Thursday will warm into the lower 90s and push the
mid 90s by Friday. With southerly winds in play, expect muggy
conditions and nighttime temperatures in the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 155 AM EDT Friday...

Early this morning, a frontal boundary was laying west to east
near the VA/NC border. This boundary will gradually lift nwrd
acrs the area today into Sat morning, then lifts well north of
the region Sat aftn, as low pressure moves fm the OH valley NE
into the Great Lakes. As a result, there will continue to be at
least chc to likely Pops for showers or tstms into late tonight.
So, expect mainly MVFR CIGS at RIC/SBY/PHF during this time
period with IFR CIGS possible thru this morning at RIC and PHF,
and into Sat morning at SBY. Expect mainly MVFR or VFR CIGS at
ORF/ECG.

Just sctd aftn/evening showers/tstms will be possible Sat and
Sun. Drier conditions potentially arrive early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Friday...

Went ahead and extended the SCA's for the rest of the Ches Bay
(except mouth) based on latest wind gusts aoa 20 kts on back
side of the frontal boundary located along the James River to
ORF/VA beach. This boundary progged to meander across the waters
today before lifting back north as a warm front late tonight and
Sat morning. Expect diminishing winds once the onshore E-SE winds
shift back to the south. This could be as early as this afternoon
across the southern Ches Bay but kept the headline up through 20Z
due to the uncertainty. Seas slow to respond to the onshore
winds, bust expect them to reach arnd 5 ft across the northern
coastal waters. Kept the SCA ending time over the coastal waters
as late tonight as I expect a several hr period of seas blo 5
ft Sat morn before bumping up again later in the day.

The southerly flow returns Saturday as the warm front lifts
north of the waters. A Small Craft Advisory may once again be
needed Sat night due to a strong SSW push and seas arnd 5 ft.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RIC received 7.34 inches of rain since midnight. This is the
second all time daily rainfall record at RIC. More rain is
expected later today which will likely increase the current
daily total. The all time daily rainfall record at RIC is 8.79
inches set on August 12, 1955 associated with hurricane Connie.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ048-
     060>062-064-067>069-080>086-088>090-092-093-095>098-
     509>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ636-
     638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ631-
     632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG/JAO
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG/JAO
LONG TERM...BMS/ERI
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJB/MPR
CLIMATE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
807 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

VAZ048-060>062-064-067>069-080>086-088>090-092-093-095>098-509>525-
231215-
Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Nottoway-Amelia-
Powhatan-Dinwiddie-Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-
Middlesex-Mathews-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-Isle of Wight-
Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-Western Louisa-
Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
807 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, east
central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north central Virginia, south
central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Periods of showers and embedded thunderstorms will be possible later
this afternoon into tonight, which could contain heavy rainfall.
Flash flooding is possible across Central Virginia and Tidewater.
Some storms could also be severe producing damaging winds, hail and
isolated tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ065-066-079-087-231215-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-
Brunswick-Greensville-
807 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina,
south central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop across the area later this
afternoon into this evening. There is a slight risk for severe
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours across portions
of central and southeast Virginia. The main threat will be damaging
winds and isolated tornadoes. Otherwise, stronger storms could
contain heavy rainfall, with localized flooding possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ025-VAZ099-100-231215-
Maryland Beaches-Accomack-Northampton-
807 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, eastern
Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

Showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy rain, are possible later
this evening and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ021>024-VAZ075>078-231215-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Westmoreland-Richmond-
Northumberland-Lancaster-
807 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, east
central Virginia and eastern Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy rain, are possible later
this evening and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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