Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Wakefield, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
141 PM EDT Wed Apr 4 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region this afternoon. High
pressure will build in from the west tonight and Thursday. The
high slides off the coast Friday, with a cold front moving into
the region Friday night and low pressure affecting the region by
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The latest wv imagery shows a potent trough pushing into the
Great Lakes while a ridge remains situated over the wrn
Atlantic, and a moist frontal band placed between these features
extending from the Deep South through the Ohio Valley into the
Ern Great Lakes. At the surface, 992mb low pressure is located
over SW ON with a cold front extending to the SSW over the wrn
slopes of the Appalachians. Much of the local area is in the
warm sector early this morning with temperatures ranging through
the 60s along with an 8-12mph SSW wind occasionally gusting to
~20 mph. Localized stratus and temperatures in the 50s are over
the Atlantic coast of the Ern Shore.

The cold front will approach from the W this morning moving
into the Piedmont by 15z and into the Coastal Plain by 18z and
generally pushing offshore by 21z (with the exception of coastal
NE NC). Showers are expected to diminish in coverage from the
Piedmont to the I-95 corridor this morning through midday, with
PoPs mainly 30- 50% and then becoming partly to mostly sunny by
aftn. Farther E, showers and embedded tstms are expected to
reorganize around 16-18z. and then push toward the coast by 21z.
The main threat in any tstms is strong to potentially damaging
wind gusts given 850mb flow of 40- 45kt and dry air entraining
into the overall frontal system. Becoming breezy to windy behind
the front with a WNW wind of 15-25 mph gusting to 30-35 mph,
and to around 40 mph over the Ern Shore. High temperatures today
range from the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry and becoming mostly clear tonight and mostly sunny and
cooler for Thursday. Lows in the 30s for most areas tonight
(potentially upper 20s NW). Highs Thursday in the low 50s NE to
the mid/upper 50s elsewhere. Partly cloudy to occasionally
mostly cloudy N with lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s Thursday
night. Increasing SW flow ahead of the next front on Friday will
allow for warming temperatures. Partly to mostly sunny early
then increasing high cloudy with highs mainly in the upper 60s
to low 70s (low/mid 60s immediate Atlantic coast).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Rain overspreads the entire CWA late Friday night into Saturday
morning as surface low pressure approaches western NC. At the same
time, a frontal boundary will be situated across the VA/NC border.
Temperatures will likely be in the low-mid 50s Saturday morning
south of the boundary in NE NC, while we will see 30s in our
northwestern counties/low-mid 40s in the Richmond metro to the
Eastern Shore. The frontal boundary will slowly push southward
through NC while precipitation is falling over the entire CWA during
the day on Saturday. Therefore, we will likely have steady or slowly
falling temperatures. By Saturday evening, the boundary will be well
south of the CWA as low pressure pulls offshore. If/when we will see
a changeover to snow in parts of our CWA is still our main forecast
question.

Continued to lean toward a GFS solution for this event. Latest
03/12z GFS has the changeover occurring from an LKU-EZF-Dover line
by noon Saturday with a rain/snow mix possible from RIC-SBY
northward by evening as the precipitation starts to wind down from
northwest to southeast. Latest 03/12z CMC is similar to the GFS,
while the 03/12z ECMWF is slightly farther south with the track of
the low pressure system. At this time, it looks like there is the
possibility of a light accumulation on grassy surfaces in our far
northwestern counties.

Lows Sunday morning will be at or below freezing inland/around 35-
40F near the coast in the wake of the low pressure system. Expect a
cool but dry day Sunday with highs in the 50s. More rain is possible
on Monday as another storm system approaches the area. Temperatures
will remain below average on Monday-Tuesday with highs in the 50s
and lows in the 30s-low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front is currently crossing the region. Although most
areas are expected to remain dry, did include VCSH especially
near the coast where rain chances are highest. Thunder psbl as
well. Otws, VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period with
gusty winds both ahead of and behind the front...up to 30-40 kt.
Dry and clear tonight with winds decreasing yet still gusty.

High pressure passes over the area Thursday, with dry
conditions. High pressure moves offshore Thursday night and
Friday as another cold front approaches from the NW. The cold
front drops through the region Friday night with low pressure
tracking across the Carolinas Saturday. Expect deteriorating
conditions with flight restrictions possible Saturday. High
pressure returns Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Increased SSW winds to 15-25 kt ahead of an approaching cold
front from the W through the morning hours. The front pushes
offshore this afternoon, w/ CAA winds shifting to WNW into
tonight (to 20-30 kt over nrn ocean waters...remaining 15-25 kt
most of the remaining local waters). Have adjusted most/lengthened
most SCA headlines into/through tonight. Benign marine conditions
then for Thu as high pressure builds into the region. Next
hi prob chance for SCA conditions (w/ winds becoming S) arrives
late Thu-Fri as low pressure passes off to the north.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632-
     634-650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656-
     658.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...ERI
AVIATION...AJZ/MAS
MARINE...ALB/MAS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
100 PM EDT WED APR 4 2018

VAZ100-041730-
Northampton-
100 PM EDT WED APR 4 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHAMPTON COUNTY...

At 100 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles south of
Cape Charles, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cape Charles, Cheriton, Bay View, Eastville, Capeville, Kiptopeke
State Park, Machipongo, Simpkins, Townsend, Oyster, Cheapside,
Kiptopeke, Plantation, Dalbys and Smith Beach.

Strong wind gusts are possible with this storm. These wind gusts are
capable of knocking down tree limbs...small or weakened trees...and
blowing around trash cans...potted plants...lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

LAT...LON 3742 7566 3712 7583 3709 7587 3708 7591
      3706 7592 3705 7598 3706 7600 3709 7602
      3713 7601 3720 7606 3723 7606 3725 7607
      3734 7606 3738 7603 3741 7599
TIME...MOT...LOC 1700Z 235DEG 41KT 3717 7604

BUTNER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
233 PM EDT WED APR 4 2018

NCZ013-014-030>032-041915-
Hertford-Bertie-Gates-Perquimans-Chowan-
233 PM EDT WED APR 4 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN PERQUIMANS...
NORTHERN BERTIE...SOUTHEASTERN HERTFORD...SOUTH CENTRAL GATES AND
CHOWAN COUNTIES...

At 233 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Lewiston
Woodville, or 9 miles south of Aulander, moving east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hertford, Winfall, Ryland, Lewiston Woodville, Powellsville,
Colerain, Harrellsville, Rockyhock, Tyner, Hobbsville, Valhalla,
Belvidere, Askewville, Goose Pond, Whites Crossroads, Gliden, Newsome
Store, Arrowhead Beach, Republican and Mount Gould.

Strong wind gusts are possible with this storm. These wind gusts are
capable of knocking down tree limbs...small or weakened trees...and
blowing around trash cans...potted plants...lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

LAT...LON 3610 7724 3611 7724 3641 7662 3619 7645
      3619 7647 3615 7642 3600 7718
TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 249DEG 38KT 3609 7712

BUTNER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
243 PM EDT WED APR 4 2018

NCZ012>014-VAZ092-093-096-041930-
Hertford-Northampton-Gates-Isle of Wight-Southampton-Suffolk-
243 PM EDT WED APR 4 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN NORTHAMPTON...
NORTHWESTERN HERTFORD...NORTHWESTERN GATES...SOUTHERN ISLE OF
WIGHT...AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTHAMPTON COUNTIES...THE CITY OF FRANKLIN
AND THE CITY OF SUFFOLK...

At 243 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Como, or near
Murfreesboro, moving east at 50 mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Franklin, Murfreesboro, Boykins, Downtown Suffolk, Holland, Chowan
University, Suffolk, Gates, Conway, Newsoms, Como, Driver,
Carrsville, Whaleyville, Corapeake, Kings Fork, Severn, Branchville,
Topsy and Suffolk Airport.

Strong wind gusts are possible with this storm. These wind gusts are
capable of knocking down tree limbs...small or weakened trees...and
blowing around trash cans...potted plants...lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

LAT...LON 3640 7727 3658 7727 3687 7646 3655 7649
      3655 7654 3654 7653
TIME...MOT...LOC 1843Z 248DEG 43KT 3652 7711

BUTNER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
320 PM EDT WED APR 4 2018

VAZ095>098-042000-
Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-
320 PM EDT WED APR 4 2018

...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ...THE
SOUTHEASTERN CITY OF NORFOLK...THE CITY OF CHESAPEAKE...THE SOUTHERN
CITY OF PORTSMOUTH...THE SOUTHEASTERN CITY OF SUFFOLK AND THE CITY
OF VIRGINIA BEACH...

At 319 PM EDT, fast moving showers and thunderstorms were clustered
near Downtown Suffolk, moving east at 55 mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Virginia Beach, Downtown Norfolk, Regent University, Great Bridge,
Kempsville, Downtown Suffolk, Deep Creek, Downtown Portsmouth,
Virginia Wesleyan College, Norfolk State University, Norfolk,
Chesapeake, Portsmouth, Suffolk, Back Bay, Fentress, Bowers Hill,
Northwest, Cradock and Princess Anne.

Strong wind gusts are possible with this storm. These wind gusts are
capable of knocking down tree limbs...small or weakened trees...and
blowing around trash cans...potted plants...lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

LAT...LON 3658 7584 3655 7634 3655 7662 3671 7666
      3682 7647 3685 7630 3684 7630 3686 7628
      3691 7597
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 254DEG 47KT 3664 7654

BUTNER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
325 PM EDT WED APR 4 2018

NCZ013>015-030>032-042015-
Pasquotank-Hertford-Bertie-Gates-Perquimans-Chowan-
325 PM EDT WED APR 4 2018

...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN
PASQUOTANK... PERQUIMANS...BERTIE...SOUTHERN HERTFORD...SOUTHERN
GATES AND CHOWAN COUNTIES...

At 324 PM EDT, showers and thunderstorms were clustered near
Lewiston Woodville, or 8 miles south of Aulander, moving east at 60
mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Elizabeth City, Ahoskie, Windsor, Hertford, Aulander, Winfall,
Gatesville, Ryland, Winton, Lewiston Woodville, Cofield,
Powellsville, Roxobel, Colerain, Harrellsville, Chapanoke, Tyner,
Nixonton, Hobbsville and Belvidere.

Strong wind gusts are possible with this storm. These wind gusts are
capable of knocking down tree limbs...small or weakened trees...and
blowing around trash cans...potted plants...lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

LAT...LON 3599 7719 3599 7721 3601 7721 3601 7722
      3606 7733 3609 7731 3611 7723 3611 7724
      3612 7724 3613 7725 3616 7726 3617 7730
      3621 7730 3621 7723 3629 7719 3638 7699
      3646 7642 3643 7635 3613 7620 3597 7720
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 255DEG 50KT 3611 7710

BUTNER