Winter Storm Warning 9, NWS Juneau, AK

315 
WWAK47 PAJK 280642
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
942 PM AKST Tue Feb 27 2018

AKZ019-281500-
/O.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0009.000000T0000Z-180228T1800Z/
Haines Borough and Lynn Canal-
Including the city of Haines
942 PM AKST Tue Feb 27 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...4 to 9 inches of new snow.

* WHERE...Haines Borough with greatest amounts near Mud Bay.

* WHEN...Snow will develop late this evening and intensify 
  overnight before easing Wednesday morning. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy snow will be difficult to manage. 
  Travel will be hazardous. Visibility will be significantly 
  reduced during periods of heavy snow. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A warning means that a winter storm is already occurring or
imminent. This storm could pose a threat to life and property.

This statement will be updated by 6 AM AKST WEdnesday or sooner 
if conditions warrant.

&&

$$

AKZ022-281500-
/O.CON.PAJK.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-180228T1800Z/
Salisbury Sound to Cape Fairweather Coastal Area-
Including the cities of Elfin Cove and Pelican
942 PM AKST Tue Feb 27 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...2 to 6 inches of snow.

* WHERE...Portions of the eastern gulf coast including Pelican.

* WHEN...Snow shower activity will increase late Tuesday evening 
  and will persist through Wednesday morning with highest rates 
  overnight. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be difficult. Visibility will 
  be reduced during periods of heavy snow showers. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

An advisory means that a potentially hazardous event is already
occurring or imminent.

This statement will be updated by 6 AM AKST Wednesday or sooner 
if conditions warrant.

&&

$$

121 
WWAK47 PAJK 280911
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1211 AM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018

AKZ017-281500-
/O.EXB.PAJK.WS.W.0009.000000T0000Z-180228T1500Z/
Cape Fairweather to Cape Suckling Coastal Area-
Including the city of Yakutat
1211 AM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...An estimated 4 inches has fallen since Tuesday evening.
  An additional 3 to 5 inches is expected overnight with storm
  total snow amounts of 7 to 9 inches.

* WHERE...North Gulf coast including Yakutat.

* WHEN...Moderate to heavy snow will persist overnight before 
  easing Wednesday morning.
 
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy snow will be difficult to manage. 
  Travel will be hazardous. Visibility will be significantly 
  reduced during periods of heavy snow. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A warning means that a winter storm is already occurring or
imminent. This storm could pose a threat to life and property.

This statement will be updated by 6 AM AKST Wednesday or sooner 
if conditions warrant.

&&

$$

AKZ019-281715-
/O.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0009.000000T0000Z-180228T1800Z/
Haines Borough and Lynn Canal-
Including the city of Haines
1211 AM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...4 to 9 inches of new snow.

* WHERE...Haines Borough with greatest amounts near Mud Bay.

* WHEN...Snow will continue to increase in intensity overnight
  before easing Wednesday morning. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy snow will be difficult to manage. 
  Travel will be hazardous. Visibility will be significantly 
  reduced during periods of heavy snow. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A warning means that a winter storm is already occurring or
imminent. This storm could pose a threat to life and property.

This statement will be updated by 6 AM AKST Wednesday or sooner 
if conditions warrant.

&&

$$

AKZ025-281715-
/O.EXA.PAJK.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-180228T1800Z/
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Including the city of Juneau
1211 AM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...3 to 6 inches of snow.

* WHERE...Portions of the inner channels including Juneau.

* WHEN...Snowfall will increase in intensity overnight and persist
  through Wednesday morning with highest rates during the early
  morning hours.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be difficult. Visibility will 
  be reduced during periods of heavy snow showers. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

An advisory means that a potentially hazardous event is already
occurring or imminent.

This statement will be updated by 6 AM AKST Wednesday or sooner
if conditions warrant.

&&

$$

AKZ022-281715-
/O.CON.PAJK.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-180228T1800Z/
Salisbury Sound to Cape Fairweather Coastal Area-
Including the cities of Elfin Cove and Pelican
1211 AM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...3 to 6 inches of snow.

* WHERE...Portions of the eastern gulf coast including Pelican.

* WHEN...Snowfall will increase in intensity overnight and persist
  through Wednesday morning with highest rates during the early
  morning hours.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be difficult. Visibility will 
  be reduced during periods of heavy snow showers. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

An advisory means that a potentially hazardous event is already
occurring or imminent.

This statement will be updated by 6 AM AKST Wednesday or sooner
if conditions warrant.

&&

$$

656 
WWAK47 PAJK 281443
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
543 AM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018


AKZ017-281545-
/O.EXP.PAJK.WS.W.0009.000000T0000Z-180228T1500Z/
Cape Fairweather to Cape Suckling Coastal Area-
Including the city of Yakutat
543 AM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 AM AKST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

Snow will continue to diminish early this morning. Estimated
snowfall amounts of 6 to 8 inches overnight.

$$

AKZ019-281800-
/O.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0009.000000T0000Z-180228T1800Z/
Haines Borough and Lynn Canal-
Including the city of Haines
543 AM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...4 to 9 inches storm total snow.

* WHERE...Haines Borough with greatest amounts near Mud Bay.

* WHEN...Snow will continue this early this morning and diminish
  by this afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy snow will be difficult to manage. 
  Travel will be hazardous. Visibility will be significantly 
  reduced during periods of heavy snow. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A warning means that a winter storm is already occurring or
imminent. This storm could pose a threat to life and property.

This statement will be updated by 9 AM AKST Wednesday or sooner
if conditions warrant.

&&

$$

AKZ022-025-281800-
/O.CON.PAJK.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-180228T1800Z/
Salisbury Sound to Cape Fairweather Coastal Area-
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Including the cities of Elfin Cove, Pelican, and Juneau
543 AM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...3 to 6 inches storm total snow.

* WHERE...Portions of the inner channels including Juneau.

* WHEN...Snowfall will persist through Wednesday morning and
  diminsh by this afternoon.  

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be difficult. Visibility will 
  be reduced during periods of heavy snow showers. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

An advisory means that a potentially hazardous event is already
occurring or imminent.

This statement will be updated by 9 AM AKST Wednesday or sooner
if conditions warrant.

&&

$$

758 
WWAK47 PAJK 281749
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
849 AM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018

AKZ019-281900-
/O.EXP.PAJK.WS.W.0009.000000T0000Z-180228T1800Z/
Haines Borough and Lynn Canal-
Including the city of Haines
849 AM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING...

Storm total snowfall ranged from 2 to 4 inches based on spotter
and COOP information. 

This will be the final statement on this event.

$$

AKZ022-025-281900-
/O.EXP.PAJK.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-180228T1800Z/
Salisbury Sound to Cape Fairweather Coastal Area-
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Including the cities of Elfin Cove, Pelican, and Juneau
849 AM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM AKST THIS
MORNING...

Storm total snowfall ranged from around 1 inch at the Juneau airport,
1.8 inches at the forecast office, 4.5 inches in Pelican, and 5 
inches in West Juneau.


This will be the final statement on this event.

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
626 AM AKST Tue Feb 27 2018

.SHORT TERM...Surface analysis and satellite imagery indicate
storm force low moving into the NW gulf early this morning. This
low will gradually weaken as it tracks across the N gulf today
then SE along the outer coast tonight. Model solutions remain in
good agreement with the synoptic pattern through the period.
Southerly winds have risen to small craft over the N inner
channels with W gales across Cross Sound. Also will see strong
winds for AKZ018 this morning into early this evening. Precip
chances will persist through the day then decrease from N to S
overnight into Wed. Majority of precip will fall as snow, but lots
of rain mixing in through the day should keep accumulations below
advisory amounts. The lowest confidence in accumulations will be
along the Icy Strait corridor and Haines near Mud Bay where
convergence from NW drainage flow and Sly winds in the canal may
enhance precip rates resulting in higher amounts. Will continue
monitoring this potential through the day. Stability indices hint
at potential for lightning as the low and cold pool slide SE along
the outer coast tonight. Given the fairly active lightning with
the last system, decided to include mention of SChc TSMS for
marine areas coincidental with the low and cold pool aloft.
Precip chances diminish through the day Wed as N outflow begins
establishing itself. Main changes to increase winds using NAM and
NamNest as guidance. Overall forecast confidence remains above
average in pattern progression, with a little below average
confidence in snow amounts.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday/ As of 10 pm Monday. Dry,
cold, windy weather pattern for the start of the long range
forecast. Strong northerly pressure gradient between low pressure
over Haida Gwaii and high pressure over the Yukon will produce
outflow and northerly winds in the 35 to 40 kt range over the
inner channels. Due to orientation of the gradient not expecting a
Taku wind event for Juneau. Cold arctic airmass with 850 mb temps
in the -15C range will also move over the panhandle due to the
offshore flow. This along with clear skies and radiational cooling
will produce overnight lows in the teens to possible single
digits for the central and northern regions with lows in the 20s
for coastal and southern areas. As the low and Yukon high weaken
and drift to the southeast winds will diminish and temps will
begin to warm slightly. The 500 mb blocking ridge extending from
the N Pacific into the Arctic will last through Saturday keeping
the panhandle dry. Timing of the ridge breaking down is still
uncertain. GFS/Canadian are starting to fall more in line with
allowing a fast moving short wave to over ride a flattening ridge
and bring in next chance of precip Saturday night into Sunday.
Better agreement the ridge will fully break down to more zonal
flow Monday into Tuesday with a return to more moderate
temperatures and wet weather.

With models remaining in good alignment for the early part of the
forecast used only some NAM to nudge up wind speeds. Due to
uncertainty later in the forecast only made minor adjustments
using GFS to increase PoP to slight chance and began to warm
temperatures. If GFS/Canadian/ECMWF start to fall in line as
indicated by newer runs, later forecast will likely need to increase
PoPs Sunday. Forecast confidence is average early on then drops
by the weekend as the ridge breaks down.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 9 AM AKST this morning through this afternoon
     for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-035-053.

&&

BC/PRB

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