Winter Storm Warning 8, NWS Juneau, AK

047 
WWAK47 PAJK 250040
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
340 PM AKST Sat Feb 24 2018

AKZ020>022-024-250145-
/O.EXP.PAJK.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-180225T0100Z/
Glacier Bay-Eastern Chichagof Island-
Salisbury Sound to Cape Fairweather Coastal Area-
Eastern Baranof Island and Southern Admiralty Island-
Including the cities of Gustavus, Hoonah, Elfin Cove, Pelican, 
and Angoon
340 PM AKST Sat Feb 24 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM AKST THIS
AFTERNOON...

Snow has begun to taper off and should be ending this evening. 
The Winter Weather Advisory will be expiring at 4 pm. 

Pelican has reported 4.5 to 5 inches of snow this afternoon.
Tenakee and Hoonah reports are showing 1.5 to 2 inches of snow.
Hidden Falls Hatchery around 2 pm had a 6 inches of snow, and
Cannery Cove on southern Admiralty Island had reported 7 inches at
2 pm. 

This will be the final statement on this event.  

$$

AKZ026-250300-
/O.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0008.000000T0000Z-180225T0300Z/
Inner Channels from Kupreanof Island to Etolin Island-
Including the cities of Petersburg, Wrangell, and Kake
340 PM AKST Sat Feb 24 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow, with 6 to 8 inches expected. Highest amounts near 
  Petersburg. 

* WHERE...Central Inner Channels, to include Petersburg, 
  Wrangell, and Kake. 

* WHEN...Snow continuing with the heaviest snowfall during the 
  afternoon. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will becoming wet and heavy as water
  content of the snow increases during mid to late afternoon. As
  of 3 PM AKST Saturday 5.5 inches of snowfall has been reported 
  near Petersburg. Travel will be hazardous due to snow covered 
  roads. Visibility may be reduced below 1 mile during heavier 
  snowfall. Snowfall rates could exceed 1 inch per hour during 
  heavier snow. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A warning means that a winter storm is already occurring or 
imminent. This storm could pose a threat to life and property.

This statement will be updated by 6 PM AKST Saturday or sooner if
conditions warrant.

&&

$$

AKZ025-250300-
/O.CON.PAJK.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-180225T0300Z/
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Including the city of Juneau
340 PM AKST Sat Feb 24 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow, with 4 to 6 inches expected.

* WHERE...Central Inner Channels, including Juneau.

* WHEN...Snow continuing with the heaviest snowfall during the 
  afternoon. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be hazardous due to snow
  covered roads. Visibility may be reduced below 1 mile during
  heavier snowfall. Snowfall rates could exceed 1 inch per hour
  during heavier snow. Snow totals around Juneau are ranging from
  1 to 3 inches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

An advisory means that a potentially hazardous event is already
occurring or imminent.

This statement will be updated by 6 PM AKST Saturday or sooner if
conditions warrant.

&&

$$

699 
WWAK47 PAJK 250243
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
543 PM AKST Sat Feb 24 2018


AKZ026-250345-
/O.EXP.PAJK.WS.W.0008.000000T0000Z-180225T0300Z/
Inner Channels from Kupreanof Island to Etolin Island-
Including the cities of Petersburg, Wrangell, and Kake
543 PM AKST Sat Feb 24 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING...

The snow will be tapering off and ending through early Saturday 
evening. Temperatures are also warming and the wet snow is 
compacting what has already fallen. The Winter Storm Warning will 
be allowed to expire at 6 pm. 

A report from just south of Wrangell was 2.5 inches of wet snow
today. Reports in Petersburg through this afternoon was 4 inches
on the north side of town to 10 inches 9 miles south of
Petersburg.

This will be the final statement on this event.

$$

AKZ025-250345-
/O.EXP.PAJK.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-180225T0300Z/
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Including the city of Juneau
543 PM AKST Sat Feb 24 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

The snow will be tapering off and ending through early Saturday 
evening. The Winter Weather Advisory will be allowed to expire at
6 pm. 

Snowfall reports from around Juneau this afternoon and evening
varied from nearly 2 inches at the Juneau Airport, 3 inches on 
Douglas Island, the Juneau Forecast Office in the Mendenhall 
Valley had 3.5 inches as 515 pm, while Tee Harbor had 4 inches 
around 4 pm. 

This will be the final statement on this event.

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
700 AM AKST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...A storm force low is on track to cross the northern
Gulf today and move into the southern panhandle by tonight.
Another gale force low will begin tracking across the northern
Gulf late Sunday night into Monday, which is a significant change
from previous model runs. Out of this secondary system, the main
concern will be outflow.

Changes to pressure were made by nudging to the NAM. Models were
somewhat inconsistent with the placement of today's low, even with
the GFS tracking further south. Winds were increased in western
Gulf to storm force and extensive edits to winds based on local
effects. There'll be a quick shot of northerly outflow in Northern
Lynn and gusty winds near Ketchikan, Craig, and Hydaburg, as the
low slides southward.

POP's were increased to categorical by this afternoon and a
decreasing trend by late afternoon. QPF was adjusted using a
NAM/GFS blend. This blend increased QPF amounts slightly, but did
not alter current snow amounts significantly. Winter Weather
Advisories are out for Hoonah, Elfin Cove, Pelican, Angoon,
Petersburg, Wrangell, and Kake with 3-6 inches expected through
this evening. Otherwise, snow accumulations will range from 1
inch upwards of 4 inches across the central panhandle. Most
locations will start out as snow, while the outer coast will
transition to a mix by this afternoon.

Few changes to maximum temperatures were necessary. With the
clearing pattern, Sunday's maximum temperatures should be warmer
and even some sunny skies by the afternoon. However, minimum
temperatures were decreased for the tonight period based on model
spectrum spreads and MOS Guidance, following a quick shot of cold
air. Minimum temperatures were increased over the southern
panhandle for the Sunday night into Monday timeframe, after the
low exits.

Confidence is about average with today's quick moving system,
although actual snow ranges and transition times will vary.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Saturday/ Active weather pattern
through the long range with some significant model changes in the
mid range. At mid levels starting Monday 500 mb high pressure
moves over the panhandle into western Canada with a trough digging
down from the AK interior and Yukon into the NE Gulf. The main
circulation over the arctic will rotate in more waves to the
south keeping a source of cold air over the region through mid
week. Between meridional pattern of the first wave on Monday and a
second deeper wave on Tuesday night into Wednesday there will be
a short period of zonal flow. Sharp ridging rebuilds over the gulf
late week setting up for an outflow wind event.

At the surface a deep closed low develops over the NE gulf Monday
with associated frontal boundary moving over the panhandle
through the day. Due to the remaining cold air expect another
snow event with potential of 1 to 3 inches for some locations. As
the front is showing a fast track expect this would keep lower
QPF totals and thus be a limiting factor for snowfall. After the
main front tracks east post frontal showers with onshore flow
will continue. Still uncertainty on the next system developing
over the eastern gulf Thursday but at this time looks like it
will track to the south and main impact will be increasing
pressure gradient and outflow winds. For the Monday system, models
now in better agreement of a stronger frontal boundary over the
gulf and thus have increased westerly winds to gale force, with
potential for localized storm force. Stronger winds expected at
higher elevations but at least picking up 20 to 25 kt southerly
winds over the inner channels. winds diminish by Tuesday as the
front moves inland and by Thursday, gradient flips to northerly
with increasing winds speeds.

Fair agreement between NAM and GFS for Monday, which were changed
from previous runs and inherited forecast. Used a blend of GFS/NAM
Monday to Tuesday then use of NBM/WPC for the rest of the long
range. Improved confidence on the higher winds for Monday with
the newly analyzed low but still some question on snow totals.
Lower confidence by mid week in the final track of surface
features but upper pattern meridional flow is likely.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM AKST this
     evening for AKZ026.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM AKST this afternoon for
     AKZ021-022-024.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-033-041>043.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-021-022-031-032-034>036-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053.

&&

SS/Voveris

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