Winter Storm Warning 7, NWS Juneau, AK

014 
WWAK47 PAJK 221821
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
921 AM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018


AKZ025-026-230100-
/O.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0007.180223T0000Z-180223T1800Z/
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Inner Channels from Kupreanof Island to Etolin Island-
Including the cities of Juneau, Petersburg, Wrangell, and Kake
921 AM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 9 AM AKST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. From 4 to 8 inches expected.

* WHERE...Central Inner Channels, to include the cities of 
  Juneau, Douglas, Petersburg, and Wrangell. 

* WHEN...Heavy snowfall will begin late Thursday afternoon and 
  continue through Friday morning. Heaviest snowfall expected 
  Thursday evening. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This snow is expected to be very heavy 
  with a high water content. Snow removal will be difficult. 
  Visibilities will likely be reduced during periods of heavy 
  snow. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A warning means that a winter storm is already occurring or
imminent. This storm could pose a threat to life and property.

Driving will be hazardous.

This statement will be updated by 4PM AKST Thursday or sooner if
conditions warrant.

&&

$$

AKZ017-222000-
/O.NEW.PAJK.WW.Y.0016.180222T1821Z-180222T2000Z/
Cape Fairweather to Cape Suckling Coastal Area-
Including the city of Yakutat
921 AM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM AKST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Light freezing rain. Track ice accumulation expected.

* WHERE...Yakutat

* WHEN...Through 11 am.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Surfaces may become slippery.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

An advisory means that a potentially hazardous event is already
occurring or imminent.

This statement will be updated by 11 AM AKST Thursday or sooner 
if conditions warrant.

&&

$$

637 
WWAK47 PAJK 221941
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1041 AM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018
 
AKZ017-222045-
/O.EXP.PAJK.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-180222T2000Z/
Cape Fairweather to Cape Suckling Coastal Area-
Including the city of Yakutat
1041 AM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 11 AM AKST THIS
MORNING...

Freezing rain is changing to a rain and snow late this morning. 
Snow accumulation up to 2 inches is possible through late 
afternoon.

This will be the final statement on this event.

$$

AKZ025-026-230100-
/O.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0007.180223T0000Z-180223T1800Z/
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Inner Channels from Kupreanof Island to Etolin Island-
Including the cities of Juneau, Petersburg, Wrangell, and Kake
1041 AM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 9 AM AKST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. From 4 to 8 inches expected.

* WHERE...Central Inner Channels, to include the cities of 
  Juneau, Douglas, Petersburg, and Wrangell. 

* WHEN...Heavy snowfall will begin late Thursday afternoon and 
  continue through Friday morning. Heaviest snowfall expected 
  Thursday evening. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This snow is expected to be very heavy 
  with a high water content. Snow removal will be difficult. 
  Visibilities will likely be reduced during periods of heavy 
  snow. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A warning means that a winter storm is already occurring or
imminent. This storm could pose a threat to life and property.

Driving will be hazardous.

This statement will be updated by 4 PM AKST Thursday or sooner if
conditions warrant.

&&

$$

051 
WWAK47 PAJK 230020
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
320 PM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018


AKZ025-026-230800-
/O.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-180223T1800Z/
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Inner Channels from Kupreanof Island to Etolin Island-
Including the cities of Juneau, Petersburg, Wrangell, and Kake
320 PM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. From 4 to 8 inches expected.

* WHERE...Central Inner Channels, to include the cities of 
  Juneau, Douglas, Petersburg, and Wrangell. 

* WHEN...Snowfall will continue late Thursday afternoon and become
  heavy at times Thursday evening before tapering off Friday 
  morning. Heaviest snowfall expected Thursday evening. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This snow is expected to be very heavy 
  with a high water content. Snow removal will be difficult. 
  Visibilities will likely be reduced during periods of heavy 
  snow. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A warning means that a winter storm is already occurring or
imminent. This storm could pose a threat to life and property.

Driving will be hazardous.

This statement will be updated by 11 PM AKST Thursday or sooner 
if conditions warrant.

&&

$$

AKZ018-230800-
/O.NEW.PAJK.WW.Y.0017.180223T0100Z-180223T1400Z/
Taiya Inlet and Klondike Highway-
Including the city of Skagway
320 PM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow with accumulations of 2 to 6 inches.

* WHERE...Heaviest snowfall amounts will be near White Pass and
  higher elevations of the Klondike Highway.

* WHEN...Snow will continue late this afternoon and peak in
  intensity this evening before diminishing early Friday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This snow is expected to be very wet with a
  high water content. Snow removal will be difficult. Visibilities
  will likely be reduced during periods of heavier snowfall. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

An advisory means that a potentially hazardous event is already
occurring or imminent.

This statement will be updated by 11 PM AKST Thursday or sooner 
if conditions warrant.

&&

$$

455 
WWAK47 PAJK 230213
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
513 PM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018


AKZ025-026-230800-
/O.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-180223T1800Z/
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Inner Channels from Kupreanof Island to Etolin Island-
Including the cities of Juneau, Petersburg, Wrangell, and Kake
513 PM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. From 4 to 8 inches expected.

* WHERE...Central Inner Channels, to include the cities of 
  Juneau, Douglas, Petersburg, and Wrangell. 

* WHEN...Snowfall will continue late Thursday afternoon and 
  become heavy at times Thursday evening before tapering off 
  Friday morning. Heaviest snowfall expected Thursday evening. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This snow is expected to be very heavy 
  with a high water content. Snow removal will be difficult. 
  Visibilities will likely be reduced during periods of heavy 
  snow. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A warning means that a winter storm is already occurring or
imminent. This storm could pose a threat to life and property.

Driving will be hazardous.

This statement will be updated by 11 PM AKST Thursday or sooner
if conditions warrant.

&&

$$

AKZ017-230800-
/O.EXB.PAJK.WW.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-180223T0800Z/
Cape Fairweather to Cape Suckling Coastal Area-
Including the city of Yakutat
513 PM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow with accumulations of 3 to 5 inches.

* WHERE...Heaviest snow near Yakutat. 

* WHEN...Snow will diminish late tonight and begin to mix with
  rain.
  
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This snow is expected to be very wet with 
  a high water content. Snow removal will be difficult. 
  Visibilities will likely be reduced during periods of heavier 
  snowfall. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

An advisory means that a potentially hazardous event is already
occurring or imminent.

This statement will be updated by 11 PM AKST Thursday or sooner
if conditions warrant.

&&

$$

AKZ018-230800-
/O.CON.PAJK.WW.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-180223T1400Z/
Taiya Inlet and Klondike Highway-
Including the city of Skagway
513 PM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow with accumulations of 2 to 6 inches.

* WHERE...Heaviest snowfall amounts will be near White Pass and 
  higher elevations of the Klondike Highway. 

* WHEN...Snow will continue late this afternoon and peak in 
  intensity this evening before diminishing early Friday 
  morning. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This snow is expected to be very wet with 
  a high water content. Snow removal will be difficult. 
  Visibilities will likely be reduced during periods of heavier 
  snowfall. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

An advisory means that a potentially hazardous event is already
occurring or imminent.

This statement will be updated by 11 PM AKST Thursday or sooner
if conditions warrant.

&&

$$

292 
WWAK47 PAJK 230753
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1053 PM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018


AKZ017-230900-
/O.EXP.PAJK.WW.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-180223T0800Z/
Cape Fairweather to Cape Suckling Coastal Area-
Including the city of Yakutat
1053 PM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

snow will continue to diminish and begin to mix with rain through
the early morning. Reports of up to 7 inches over the last 24 
hours have been reported.

$$

AKZ025-026-231400-
/O.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-180223T1800Z/
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Inner Channels from Kupreanof Island to Etolin Island-
Including the cities of Juneau, Petersburg, Wrangell, and Kake
1053 PM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. From 4 to 8 inches expected.

* WHERE...Central Inner Channels, to include the cities of Juneau,
  Douglas, Petersburg. 

* WHEN...Snowfall will begin to taper off Friday morning. Snow 
  will begin to mix with rain.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This snow is expected to be very heavy 
  with a high water content. Snow removal will be difficult. 
  Visibilities will likely be reduced during periods of heavy 
  snow. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A warning means that a winter storm is already occurring or
imminent. This storm could pose a threat to life and property.

Driving will be hazardous.

This statement will be updated by 5 AM AKST Friday or sooner if 
conditions warrant.

&&

$$

AKZ018-231400-
/O.CON.PAJK.WW.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-180223T1400Z/
Taiya Inlet and Klondike Highway-
Including the city of Skagway
1053 PM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow with accumulations of 2 to 6 inches.

* WHERE...Heaviest snowfall amounts will be near White Pass and 
  higher elevations of the Klondike Highway. 

* WHEN...Snow will peak in intensity this evening before 
  diminishing early Friday morning. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This snow is expected to be very wet with 
  a high water content. Snow removal will be difficult. 
  Visibilities will likely be reduced during periods of heavier 
  snowfall. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

An advisory means that a potentially hazardous event is already
occurring or imminent.

This statement will be updated by 5 AM AKST Friday or sooner if 
conditions warrant.

&&

$$

751 
WWAK47 PAJK 231355
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
455 AM AKST Fri Feb 23 2018

AKZ025-231500-
/O.CAN.PAJK.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-180223T1800Z/
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Including the city of Juneau
455 AM AKST Fri Feb 23 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

WHAT...Heavy snow 

WHERE....Juneau and Douglas 

Warmer than expected temperatures prevented heavy snow from
forming. Precipitation fell as rain, or a mix of rain and snow 
over most of the warning area. Rain and snow showers will continue
through the morning with little to no snow accumulation expected.

This will be the final statement on this event.


$$

AKZ018-231500-
/O.EXP.PAJK.WW.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-180223T1400Z/
Taiya Inlet and Klondike Highway-
Including the city of Skagway
455 AM AKST Fri Feb 23 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 5 AM AKST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

Snow showers will diminish through the morning. Additional snow
accumulation of around 1 inch is expected. 

$$

AKZ026-231800-
/O.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-180223T1800Z/
Inner Channels from Kupreanof Island to Etolin Island-
Including the cities of Petersburg, Wrangell, and Kake
455 AM AKST Fri Feb 23 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. From 4 to 8 inches total snowfall expected.

* WHERE...Central Inner Channels, to include the cities of 
  Juneau, Douglas, Petersburg. 

* WHEN...Snow will begin to mix with rain and diminish through
  Friday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This snow is expected to be very heavy 
  with a high water content. Snow removal will be difficult. 
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A warning means that a winter storm is already occurring or
imminent. This storm could pose a threat to life and property.

Driving will be hazardous.

This statement will be updated by 9 AM AKST Friday or sooner if 
conditions warrant.

&&

$$

391 
WWAK47 PAJK 231507
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
607 AM AKST Fri Feb 23 2018

AKZ026-231615-
/O.CAN.PAJK.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-180223T1800Z/
Inner Channels from Kupreanof Island to Etolin Island-
Including the cities of Petersburg, Wrangell, and Kake
607 AM AKST Fri Feb 23 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

WHAT...Heavy snow. 

WHERE....Petersburg

Snow has transitioned to rain showers. A total of 5.1 inches storm
total was reported in the Petersburg area. Little to no additional
accumulation is expected.

This will be the final statement on this event.



$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
239 PM AKST Wed Feb 21 2018

.SHORT TERM.../ Wednesday night to Friday night / Incoming system
on Thursday and Thursday night has been main focus of the forecast
package. Generally minor changes to the strength of the PoPs
tonight into Thursday with the low moving through the area. With
the Winter Storm Watch in place were careful to not overall
disrupt the plans.

A rain snow change over line lies along from north of Sitka to
near Ketchikan, with rain generally southwest of there, while a
snow to wet snow on the north sides. Right now the forecast for
Juneau and Petersburg Wrangell areas are looking like 5 to 9
inches in roughly 12 hours. Will be leaving the watch in effect
for this afternoon rather than making an upgrade as situation is
seeming borderline. Believe one more model will tip the decision
making one way or another.

For Friday and into Saturday after conferring with Anchorage we
adjust winds to handle to a transition into the later periods and
adjust for missing data runs to keep a more fluent weather track.
Most of the editing for this area was in the Saturday time block.

Forecast confidence is average.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday...As of 9pm Tuesday, we
appear to be heading into a slightly more active and progressive
pattern for the long term. The upper level ridge that will have
been a constant feature up until this point will retreat further
into western Canada and weaken as an upper level trough
strengthens over the panhandle on Friday and takes its place.
According to potential temperature analysis, a weak surface low
will develop along the northeast gulf coast using energy from
this upper level feature and slowly move southeast along the SE
Alaska coastline. This should keep some lingering convective
precipitation going across the panhandle, as forecast soundings
indicate steep lapse rates and plenty of cold air advection as the
low pushes through. An upper level ridge will then fill in behind
this feature Friday night before another shortwave develops out of
mainland Alaska on Saturday and impacts the panhandle Saturday
night into Sunday. Deterministic models have come into better
agreement regarding this developing shortwave, but we were
cautious about really going that route with the forecast, as there
is still plenty of uncertainty regarding the position, strength,
and timing of this low. This will be something that bears
watching as we receive more data.

Generally, we opted not to make very many substantial changes to
the long term forecast due to the uncertainty regarding
deterministic model solutions. We predominantly worked with the
12Z Friday to 12Z Saturday period using a combination of the GFS
and NAM. We also added in NBM for changes to PoP and to decrease
temperatures in the later periods to be in line with model
spreads, and we used GEM for snow ratios and subsequent snow
amounts.

&&

.AVIATION...Flight conditions for Wednesday evening will be VFR
across Southeast Alaska. Conditions will deteriorate overnight
from the northwest. Am expecting Northern panhandle ceilings to
fall into the Marginal Flight rules and Visibilities lowering in
the snow. Will also see this shift southward during the day before
the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...No Marine hazards through tonight with small craft
advisories starting to arrive for the southern outside waters.
Winds will be increasing during the day Thursday, so northcentral
inner channels increasing to 25 kt with Lynn Canal climbing to 35
kt by late afternoon.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday
     night for AKZ025-026.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-031-032-034-041-043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ042.

&&

Bezenek/Voveris

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