Storm Warning 51, NWS Juneau, AK

193 
FZAK52 PAJK 101134
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
234 AM AKST Mon Dec 10 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-110545-
234 AM AKST Mon Dec 10 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A strong front will enter the gulf from the west Monday. The
associated low will deepen in the central gulf as it moves north
to the north-central gulf by Monday afternoon before turning to
the northwest. The low will stall near Prince William Sound
through Tuesday night then weaken.  

$$

PKZ041-110545-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
234 AM AKST Mon Dec 10 2018

...STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15
ft building to 20 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt becoming W late. Seas 20 ft. Showers, slight
chance of thunderstorms late. 
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.TUE NIGHT...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 27 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.WED...SE gale to 45 kt becoming SW. Seas 35 ft. 
.THU...W gale to 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Seas 35 ft
subsiding to 22 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-110545-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
234 AM AKST Mon Dec 10 2018

...STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
16 ft building to 22 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt becoming W late. Seas 20 ft. Showers, 
slight chance of thunderstorms late. 
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Showers and slight chance
of thunderstorms. 
.TUE NIGHT...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 27 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.WED...SE gale to 45 kt becoming W. Seas 26 ft building to
35 ft. 
.THU...W gale to 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Seas 34 ft
subsiding to 21 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt becoming SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-110545-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
234 AM AKST Mon Dec 10 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt becoming SE 45 kt. Seas 15 ft building to
21 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Showers in the evening,
then slight chance of thunderstorms late. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. Showers in the afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.WED...E gale to 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt becoming SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-110545-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
234 AM AKST Mon Dec 10 2018

...GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt becoming SE 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
13 ft building to 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming W 25 kt late. Seas 19 ft. Rain
showers in the evening. 
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.WED...E gale to 45 kt becoming NE 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt becoming SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-110545-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
234 AM AKST Mon Dec 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW late. Seas 16 ft. Rain
showers in the evening. 
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft. 
.WED...E gale to 35 kt becoming N. Seas 18 ft. 
.THU...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

511 
FZAK52 PAJK 110031
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
331 PM AKST Mon Dec 10 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-111845-
331 PM AKST Mon Dec 10 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A storm force front offshore of Southeast Alaska will push into
the Panhandle Mon night and weaken. A gale force front will then 
slide E across the gulf Tue and move into the Panhandle Tue 
evening. Outlook. A strong low will move into the central gulf 
Wed. 

$$

PKZ041-111845-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
331 PM AKST Mon Dec 10 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt becoming W 30 kt late. Seas 19 ft. Rain 
in the evening, then rain showers and slight chance of 
thunderstorms late. 
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. Slight chance of thunderstorms. 
Rain showers in the afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...W gale to 35 kt becoming S 25 kt late. Seas
25 ft. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening. 
.WED...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 32 ft. Showers.
.WED NIGHT...SW gale to 45 kt. Gusts to 60 kt. Seas 43 ft.
Rain showers. 
.THU...W gale to 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Seas 42 ft
subsiding to 22 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SAT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 23 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-111845-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
331 PM AKST Mon Dec 10 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming SW 35 kt in the evening, then
becoming W 20 kt late. Seas 21 ft subsiding to 16 ft late.
Rain showers in the evening, then rain showers and slight chance 
of thunderstorms late. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 ft building to 21 ft in the afternoon. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. Rain showers in the afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...W gale to 35 kt becoming S 25 kt late. Seas
25 ft. W swell late. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the
evening. 
.WED...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...W gale to 45 kt. Seas 41 ft. Rain showers. 
.THU...W gale to 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Seas 41 ft
subsiding to 21 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt becoming SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SAT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-111845-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
331 PM AKST Mon Dec 10 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming SW 35 kt in the evening, then
becoming W 25 kt late. Seas 22 ft subsiding to 17 ft late.
Rain showers in the evening, then slight chance of thunderstorms 
late.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 15 ft building to 19 ft in the afternoon. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming S late. Seas 24 ft. Slight
chance of thunderstorms. 
.WED...E gale to 45 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain and snow showers. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 30 ft. Rain showers. 
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 30 ft subsiding to 20 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt becoming SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-111845-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
331 PM AKST Mon Dec 10 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the evening,
then becoming SW 25 kt late. Seas 19 ft. Rain showers in the
evening, then slight chance of thunderstorms late. 
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. Rain showers in the afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain showers and
slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening. 
.WED...E gale to 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain showers. 
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft subsiding to 17 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt becoming SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-111845-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
331 PM AKST Mon Dec 10 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming SW late. Seas 17 ft. Rain
showers in the evening, then slight chance of thunderstorms late.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. Rain showers in the afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming SE late. Seas 23 ft. 
.WED...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain and snow
showers. 
.THU...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 14 ft building to 19 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
301 PM AKST Sun Dec 9 2018

.SHORT TERM...Very active weather continues for SE. We have one
system pushing through this afternoon with moderate to heavy
showers and gusty winds occurring. Late tonight another front will
cross the gulf with winds increasing to 40-50kt over the outside
waters and heavy rain. A wave developing along the front will
work to enhance it as it moves onshore Monday morning. Have
widespread strong winds (40-50mph gusts) expected for majority of
the panhandle as the front passes through the day. This front
again looks warm, so near sea level will see all rain. However,
White Pass should remain just cold enough for another round of
heavy snow. Have 12-20 inches over a 24hr period for there,
encompassing Monday.

Once this front passes, winds will shift to the SW with cold air
advection behind it. Expect a transition back to showers with the
CAA and even some snow showers. Ocean effect rain and snow
showers will continue through Tuesday night with some minor
accumulations possible.

Adjusted wind speeds up using primarily the NAMnest. Some
uncertainty remains with timing and strength of waves along the
front, any adjustment to these would mainly impact placement of
strongest winds. Confidence in categorical rain or showers is
above average, going to be a wet couple of days with negligible
breaks.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday night/...Very active long
range forecast period. Extended range forecast begins with a
large and fairly broad negatively tilted upper trough oriented
northwest to southeast across the Gulf of Alaska. Models in very
good agreement on this and all significant jet energy begins this
period well to the south. A progressive upper ridge will displace
the trough to the east and come to lie over the eastern gulf by
Wednesday morning. This feature is then also displaced to the east
as an upper short wave moves into the gulf on Wednesday night. A
short lived upper low will form, but this will get ejected to the
north or become absorbed by another, more sharply defined upper
trough Thursday afternoon and continues to the east into Canada by
Friday afternoon. Once more upper ridge moves over on Saturday and
by Sunday, it looks as if a large upper low will set up over the
gulf and remain in place into next week.

At the surface, model agreement not nearly as good. All agree at
the start that there will be a large, complex area of low pressure
than spans from the western interior, east into the Yukon, and to
the southern Gulf of Alaska. The difficulty is that numerous
surface circulations are embedded within the larger complex and no
two models are in agreement on precisely where those surface
circulations are at the start or where they will go/how they
evolve over the course of the upcoming week. This is no trivial
problem either, as the various model solutions have yet another
storm force low crossing the southeastern gulf on Tuesday. Beyond
that, at least three more high end gale force fronts on Wednesday
evening, Saturday, and Sunday will affect the eastern gulf and
Southeast Alaska.

Very gradual cooling of the low levels is also forecast for the
upcoming week with overnight lows getting down to freezing or
below for nearly all populated locations by Thursday night. Thus,
there is the possibility of some snow at the lower elevations.
This is not a certainty, since the pattern, with fronts coming in
from the west, is not a reliable snow scenario. Time will tell.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ026.
     Strong Wind from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for
     AKZ021-023-025>027.
     Strong Wind from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for
     AKZ017-024-028.
     Strong Wind from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for
     AKZ022.
     Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM Monday to 5 AM AKST Tuesday for
     AKZ018.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ041-042.
     Gale Warning for PKZ021-022-031>036-043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-053.

&&

Ferrin/Fritsch

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
925 AM AKST SUN DEC 9 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0724 AM     SNOW             WHITE PASS              59.62N 135.14W
12/09/2018  U22.0 INCH                          AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            AT WHITE PASS, AKDOT REPORTS 22 INCHES OF SNOW. BETWEEN
            MILE 8 AND MILE 14 OF SOUTH KLONDIKE, 14-22 INCHES FELL.
            BETWEEN SKAGWAY AND MILE 8, UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW FELL.

0845 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SE CRAIG                55.48N 133.12W
12/09/2018                                      AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            12-INCH DIAMETER HEMLOCK TREE FELL ACROSS PORT ST. NICK
            ROAD SOUTHEAST OF CRAIG AND BLOCKED ROAD BEFORE IT WAS
            CLEARED. WIND SPEEDS UNKNOWN. TIME OF INCIDENT UNKNOWN.

&&

JWA