Storm Warning 50, NWS Juneau, AK

077 
FZAK51 PAJK 091239
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast FOR Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
339 AM AKST Sun Dec 9 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 nm

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-100345-
339 AM AKST Sun Dec 9 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A strong weather front over the eastern gulf and  panhandle will
weaken early Sunday morning. Meanwhile a low  pressure system
will develop and track inland north Cape Decision. Another
strong front will enter the gulf from the west Monday.  

$$

PKZ011-100345-
Glacier Bay-
339 AM AKST Sun Dec 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING AND LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts
to 40 kt early in the morning. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 25 kt late. Gusts to 40 kt late.
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain
showers. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-100345-
Northern Lynn Canal-
339 AM AKST Sun Dec 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Gusts to 45 kt early in the morning. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 30 kt late. Seas 6 ft. Rain 
showers in the evening, then rain late. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain
showers. 
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-100345-
Southern Lynn Canal-
339 AM AKST Sun Dec 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft subsiding to 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 30 kt late. Seas 6 ft. Rain 
showers in the evening, then rain late. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain
showers. 
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-100345-
Icy Strait-
339 AM AKST Sun Dec 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming SE late. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-100345-
Cross Sound-
339 AM AKST Sun Dec 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt diminishing this morning, then becoming SW
25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming SE late. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Showers.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 17 ft. 
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-100345-
Stephens Passage-
339 AM AKST Sun Dec 9 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the morning. Gusts
to 40 kt out of interior passes. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 5 ft. 
Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt late. Seas 5 ft. Rain
showers in the evening, then rain late. 
.MON...SE gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of interior
passes. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 55 kt, except 45 kt
out of interior passes. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...SE gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-100345-
Northern Chatham Strait-
339 AM AKST Sun Dec 9 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the morning. Seas 
7 ft subsiding to 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt late. Gusts to 45 kt
late. Seas building to 6 ft. Rain late. 
.MON...SE gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain
showers. 
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-100345-
Southern Chatham Strait-
339 AM AKST Sun Dec 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING AND LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Higher gust near ocean entrances in the morning. Seas 6 ft 
subsiding to 4 ft, except 16 ft near ocean entrances. Rain early 
in the morning, then showers in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt late. Gusts to 45 kt
late. Seas 3 ft building to 6 ft late. Near ocean entrances, seas
10 ft. Rain late. 
.MON...S gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 55 kt. Seas 8 ft, except
16 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 6 ft, except
16 ft near ocean entrances. Rain showers. 
.TUE...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-100345-
Frederick Sound-
339 AM AKST Sun Dec 9 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out
of interior passes. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE 25 kt late. Gusts to 40 kt 
late. Seas 5 ft. Rain late. 
.MON...SE gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 55 kt, except 45 kt
out of interior passes. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...SE gale to 35 kt becoming SW. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-100345-
Sumner Strait-
339 AM AKST Sun Dec 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND LATE 
TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 in the afternoon. Gusts to 
45 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 11 ft near ocean entrances. Out of 
interior passes, gusts to 35 kt. Rain early in the morning, then 
rain showers in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE 25 kt late. Seas 5 ft, 
except 7 ft near ocean entrances. Rain late. 
.MON...E gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft, except
10 ft near ocean entrances. Out of interior passes, gusts to
35 kt in the morning. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt, except 40 kt
out of interior passes. Seas 7 ft, except 10 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers. 
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-100345-
Clarence Strait-
339 AM AKST Sun Dec 9 2018

...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 40 kt in the morning, then 
diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft. Rain early in 
the morning, then showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in 
the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt late. Seas 6 ft. Rain
showers in the evening. 
.MON...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 13 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 16 ft.
Showers.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft subsiding to 5 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
312 PM AKST Sat Dec 8 2018

.SHORT TERM...The active weather pattern continues through the
short term with Winter Storm Warnings and High Wind Watches all in
effect over the next 24 hours.

Current satellite imagery depicts robust activity over the gulf
and northern Pacific with multiple low pressures systems visible,
as well as a storm force weather front stretching along the
eastern gulf waters. This front will push inland through the
evening hours raising many of the inner channels to gale force
winds and producing strong winds across much of the Panhandle.
Two winter storm warnings are in effect associated with this
front, as well tonight through tomorrow morning. The first is for
the high elevations of the Klondike Highway primarily near White
Pass, where cooler temperatures and abundant moisture will
provide favorable conditions for around 1 foot of snow to fall by
late tomorrow morning. Visibility may become a concern during the
periods of heaviest snowfall, as sustained winds remain between
20 and 30 mph. The second winter storm warning is for the Haines
Highway primarily near the border with Canada. Cooler temperatures
currently in place coupled with enhanced cooling through
precipitation are expected to bring surface conditions back below
freezing this evening allowing better 5 and 8 inches of snowfall
to accumulate by late Sunday morning. At low elevations elsewhere
all precipitation should fall as rain.

Tomorrow another low pressure system develops rapidly over the
northern Pacific and looks to track inland near Cape Decision.
Strong winds and a possibility of High Winds are associated with
this low. The ultimate track of this system remains uncertain with
models continuing to trend the system northward; however, high
winds are possible especially from the back side of the low as a
sting jet likely develops. This supports a strong likelihood of
storm force winds developing briefly near Cape Decision as well as
strong gales and possibly storm force winds for Clarence Strait,
Sumner Strait, Southern Chatham, and Frederick Sound. High wind
potential is greatest for Prince of Wales Island as well as areas
near Ketchikan dependent upon the ultimate track of the system.
Besides the wind there is a slight chance of thunderstorm
development on the back side of the low which could track a few
cells into Prince of Wales Island and Southern Baranof Island.

While a slight break will occur in-between systems, Monday does
not offer much of a reprieve as yet another storm force front
enters the gulf by Monday Afternoon. Overall forecast confidence
remains high through Sunday morning with above average confidence
in Sunday's forecast, but below average confidence in the exact
track of the storm. Monday's forecast can best be described by
average confidence as timing and placement of the front are likely
to see some change still.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Saturday/...Wet and windy pattern
likely to continue through next week across Southeast Alaska.
Large scale pattern seems to remain fairly consistent with a broad
upper low over the Bering and a strong North Pacific flow
transporting a series of progressive systems through the Gulf.
Snow levels expected to lower across the northern panhandle by mid
week, but snowfall at sea level expected to be confined to the
far north.

Models are in good agreement of a strong polar jet entering the
western Gulf early Monday. As the jet slides across the southern
Gulf, an upper wave develops and spins up a strong low pressure
system into the Gulf Monday. A strong front, possibly storm
force, is expected to move into the eastern Gulf and progress
eastward through the panhandle sometime Monday night into early
Tuesday. Model solutions are not in very good agreement though
with the strength and track of the surface low. Ensembles and
model guidance suggest upper troughs rotating around the mean low
will continue through late week. Strong fronts will possibly move
through late Wednesday into early Thursday, and again sometime
Saturday. Forecast confidence is average through the mid-range.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for
     AKZ026>028.
     Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ023-026-027.
     Strong Wind from 6 PM to 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ024.
     Strong Wind from midnight AKST tonight through late tonight for
     AKZ024.
     Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ022.
     Strong Wind Sunday afternoon for AKZ023.
     Strong Wind until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ017-021.
     Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ028.
     Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM AKST Sunday
     for AKZ018-019.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ036-041>043-051.
     Gale Warning for PKZ022-031>035-052-053.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021.

&&

JB/DDH

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1108 AM AKST SAT DEC 8 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     TSTM WND DMG     YAKUTAT                 59.56N 139.76W
12/07/2018                                      AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE BLOWN OVER IN YAKUTAT. PEAK WIND GUST OF 55MPH
            MEASURED BY THE YAKUTAT AIRPORT.

&&

DDH