Storm Warning 4, NWS Juneau, AK

349 
FZAK52 PAJK 131218
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
318 AM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-140630-
318 AM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A storm force front arrives in the eastern gulf on Saturday then
weakens through the evening. The weakening frontal boundary will
shift to the west through Sunday. 

$$

PKZ041-140630-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
318 AM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 19 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.SUN...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-140630-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
318 AM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 20 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.MON...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-140630-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
318 AM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming E 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
building to 21 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.MON...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-140630-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
318 AM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft building to 24 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt late. Seas 23 ft.
Rain.
.SUN...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt becoming E gale to 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 13 ft
building to 17 ft. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 16 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-140630-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
318 AM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 24 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas 23 ft.
Rain in the evening. 
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt becoming N. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

676 
FZAK52 PAJK 140015
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
315 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-141815-
315 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A storm force front approaching Southeast Alaska will stall
across the eastern gulf and weaken through Sunday night. 

$$

PKZ041-141815-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
315 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt becoming N. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-141815-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
315 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-141815-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
315 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 13 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-141815-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
315 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 13 ft
building to 17 ft. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-141815-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
315 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...STORM WARNING THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas 24 ft. 
Rain in the evening. 
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. S swell. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt becoming N. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

691 
FZAK52 PAJK 141223
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
323 AM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-150630-
323 AM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force front in the Eastern gulf will remain mostly 
stationary through Sunday evening. A low will develop along the 
front in the NE Pacific Sunday and move north into the central 
gulf Sunday night. 

$$

PKZ041-150630-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
323 AM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.MON...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-150630-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
323 AM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-150630-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
323 AM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-150630-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
323 AM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding to 10 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-150630-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
323 AM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 35 kt late. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt becoming N 10 kt. Seas 15 ft subsiding
to 9 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
626 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...
...SNOW TODAY, RAIN SATURDAY...
Light snow has moved into the outer coast and Icy Strait this
morning associated with a pre-frontal trough. The main part of the
front will merge with this trough and help to increase the
snowfall rates as it moves inland this afternoon. An upper level
wave will track north across the panhandle this evening and cause
another increase in precip rates. Behind the wave NVA (negative
vorticity advection) will cause precip to diminish or end all
together. Greatest snowfall amounts are expected to be from
Pelican to Petersburg, northward. Did not make any adjustments to
the warning/advisory times, but snowfall amounts were adjusted
slightly based on temperature. Places along the outer coast
should warm enough to see a mix in the afternoon and some places
like Kake/Angoon/Elfin Cove will likely see a change over to rain
in the evening. Sitka has already warmed into the upper 30s with
rain reported. Please use the point and click map to see specific
amounts and timing for where you live.

The front will have moved north of the area by Saturday morning
with some breaks in the clouds possible. This will be somewhat of
a tease, but should be a long enough of a break to get out and
shovel the snow before the rain starts. The next frontal system to
move northward into the gulf looks to be a true frontal system
with an occlusion and triple point. WAA will dominate and an
atmospheric river will become directed at the panhandle, thus
expect nearly all precipitation to fall as rain. The rain will
begin over the southern panhandle Saturday morning, then spread
northward, reaching Juneau/Haines in the late afternoon. Most
locations will even see a period of moderate to heavy rain through
Saturday night. At this time the area with the greatest rainfall
expected looks to be the outer coast between Yakutat and Sitka.

As for winds, the gulf will feature gale force winds for most of
the next 48 hours as the series of fronts move through. The
panhandle will be spared some of this as the fronts will be weaker
the farther east you get. Still, we are looking at 40 mph gusts
expected along the southern outer coast as some of these front
come in and many inner channel areas will see 25 to 30 kt winds
particularly Sat into Sun. Main changes to winds were to refine
frontal timing and a general increase in winds in the inner
channels for the Sat night into Sun front. Favored GFS/Nam for
these updates.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Thursday/The early part of the
extended period will remain warm and wet, as heavy rain and strong
winds will lead this transition. Currently, we can see hints of
the ridge over western Canada losing definition and the low
shearing out.

Models hint at a potential low tracking through the Gulf late
Sunday, which was the focus of long-term edits for tonight. Models
were all over the spectrum as far as positioning of this low.
Current pressure grids were blended with the NAM/GFS early on, as
these two models suggested the presence of this low without
changing pressures substantially. The ECMWF has altered track
from previous model runs, although it is the model that varies to
a greater extent for individual details. Winds were adjusted in
the Gulf accordingly. There is also another possible low tracking
northward from Haida Gwaii Thursday into Friday. However, much
uncertainty remains for the tracking, timing, and latitudinal
extent of this system.

Both maximum and minimum temperatures were mostly within model
spectrum spreads, with the exception of Tuesday's max temps
increased and decreasing min temps for days 6 and 7. Temperatures
will peak on Sunday, before beginning another downward trend.
POP's were blended with the SREF early on and with current WPC
guidance during the later part of the period. Previous model runs
had the precipitation moving westward of Yakutat by Monday, but
new guidance suggests this next low will keep precipitation over
the panhandle during the latter part of the weekend. The southern
panhandle, however, will remain drier. QPF adjustments were made
as a blend of NAM, GFS, NBM, and WPC, which might keep amounts on
the lower end of the spectrum. The CPC outlook for the next 10-14
days shows the probability of below normal temperatures and below
normal precipitation. Latest model guidance has provided some
stability, but forecast confidence remains low to moderate at best
for the next few systems.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to midnight AKST tonight
     for AKZ024-026.
     Strong Wind from 3 PM AKST this afternoon through late tonight
     for AKZ027.
     Winter Storm Warning from noon today to 5 AM AKST Saturday for
     AKZ019-025.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to midnight AKST
     tonight for AKZ021-022.
     Strong Wind this evening for AKZ023.
     Winter Storm Warning from 9 AM this morning to 5 AM AKST
     Saturday for AKZ020.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 5 AM AKST
     Saturday for AKZ029.
     Strong Wind until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-031>036.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053.

&&

Ferrin/EAL/SS

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