Storm Warning 3, NWS Juneau, AK

687 
FZAK51 PAJK 100934 AAA
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast FOR Southeast Alaska...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1234 AM AKST Wed Jan 10 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 nm

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-101530-
1234 AM AKST Wed Jan 10 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A low over the NE gulf will weaken and track south through
Tuesday night. High pressure over the Yukon and Northern British
Columbia will produce northerly outflow winds through Wednesday.
A front moves into the eastern gulf Wednesday night. 

$$

PKZ011-101530-
Glacier Bay-
1234 AM AKST Wed Jan 10 2018

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.EARLY THIS MORNING...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 



$$

PKZ012-101530-
Northern Lynn Canal-
1234 AM AKST Wed Jan 10 2018

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.EARLY THIS MORNING...N wind 45 kt. Gusts to 55 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.THU...N gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Freezing spray. 
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 



$$

PKZ013-101530-
Southern Lynn Canal-
1234 AM AKST Wed Jan 10 2018

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.EARLY THIS MORNING...N wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...N wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of interior
passes. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of interior passes.
Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 



$$

PKZ021-101530-
Icy Strait-
1234 AM AKST Wed Jan 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray in the
morning. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 



$$

PKZ022-101530-
Cross Sound-
1234 AM AKST Wed Jan 10 2018

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.EARLY THIS MORNING...E wind 45 kt. Gusts to 60 kt. Seas 9 ft.
Freezing spray. 
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 



$$

PKZ031-101530-
Stephens Passage-
1234 AM AKST Wed Jan 10 2018

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt out of interior passes.  
Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...N wind 35 kt. Gusts to 55 kt out of interior passes. Seas 
9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of interior 
passes. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of interior passes. Seas 
6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt becoming SE. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 



$$

PKZ032-101530-
Northern Chatham Strait-
1234 AM AKST Wed Jan 10 2018

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow showers. Freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 



$$

PKZ033-101530-
Southern Chatham Strait-
1234 AM AKST Wed Jan 10 2018

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow showers. 
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft,
except 7 ft near ocean entrances. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 



$$

PKZ034-101530-
Frederick Sound-
1234 AM AKST Wed Jan 10 2018

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.EARLY THIS MORNING...NE wind 35 kt. Gusts to 55 kt out of
interior passes. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers. 
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 55 kt out of interior
passes. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of interior 
passes. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of interior passes. Seas 
6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of interior passes.
Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 



$$

PKZ035-101530-
Sumner Strait-
1234 AM AKST Wed Jan 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of interior passes. Seas 
5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of interior passes.
Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of interior passes. Seas 
5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 



$$

PKZ036-101530-
Clarence Strait-
1234 AM AKST Wed Jan 10 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to 40 kt
in the morning. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Seas
4 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 



$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
315 PM AKST Tue Jan 9 2018

.SHORT TERM...Cold upper trough continues to slowly dig southward
across the Panhandle. Associated arctic boundary currently draped
roughly along Icy Strait. These features will drift south through
the evening and overnight hours and linger over the southern
Panhandle on Wednesday before the upper trough shears out to the
east Wednesday evening. A series of fronts spinning around the
main cyclonic gyre over the western Aleutians will not make very
much headway eastward through Thursday as mid and upper level
ridging remains in place over the eastern Gulf.

Dynamic lift from the upper trough and mid level shortwave have
combined low level convergence and frontogenesis along the arctic
boundary to produce periodic snow showers today. Yakutat reported
5.2 inches of snowfall with this boundary last night, and with
the boundary expected to move slowly near the central Panhandle
this evening, think it prudent to continue the Winter Weather
Advisory for the Pelican/Sitka areas. These areas have the best
potential to see accumulations in the 3 to 5 inch range. Snow will
gradually taper off by early Wednesday.

Strong northerly outflow winds will continue behind the trough
this evening and tonight. Northerly winds to storm force over
northern Lynn Canal with strong gales through many of the other
northern channels, especially near interior passes. Temperatures
have fallen through the day across the northern Panhandle with the
strong CAA, and this trend will continue through early Wednesday.
With temps in the single digits to below zero teens over higher
elevations of the Klondike Highway, along with expected winds,
have elected to extend the Wind Chill Advisory through early
Thursday. Wednesday night will be one of the coldest nights of the
season over the northern Panhandle especially in areas that are
more wind sheltered. Lows in the single digits below zero possible
Wednesday night in places, such as Gustavus and the Mendenhall
Valley.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Monday night/ Building upper ridge
over the Western US and Canada along with an increasingly negative
tilting trough over the Bering Sea and NE Pacific will bring
warmer and wetter weather to the panhandle through next weekend.
This overall pattern has not changed much compared to the guidance
from yesterday.

At the surface, forecast remains rather wet with warming
temperatures as overall south flow brings in a series of fronts.
There is a difference between ECMWF/Canadian and GFS/Nam on when
the precip will actually start late this week. ECMWF/Canadian
favor precip starting as early as Thu night for at least the
southern half while GFS/Nam hold off until Fri. Because of this
difference, chance pops remain in the forecast Thurs night into
Fri. First substantial front comes in Fri night into Sat with a
second front coming in Sat night. Temperatures initially appear
cold enough for snow for many areas Fri night but strong warm air
advection will warm quite a few areas up above freezing as early
as Sat afternoon facilitating a change over to rain. Haines and
Skagway will likely remain snow until possibly Sun afternoon if
they warm up that much at all. Precip may start to slacken off
toward late weekend and early next week as some guidance is
suggesting that the upper trough will tilt enough to pull most
systems farther west.

With the active forecast, winds will also be a factor. Outflow
winds in the inner channels will be shutting off, and then
switching to a southerly direction for all but Lynn Canal. Out in
the gulf, Friday and beyond will be mainly characterized by
nearly continuous 25 to 35 kt SE winds as one front after another
moves through. Wave heights will also be on the increase with 20
foot seas possible in the gulf by the weekend.

Few overall changes made compared to the previous forecast.
Temperatures for the weekend and beyond were raised a few degrees
and if guidance continues to show really strong warming may need
to be raised more in future forecasts. Otherwise, main changes
dealt with local effect in the mid range. Used mainly WPC for
updates.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ025.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM AKST this evening for AKZ022-
     023.
     Strong Wind until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ018.
     Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM AKST Thursday for AKZ018.
     Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ017.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012.
     Storm Warning for PKZ012.
     Gale Warning for PKZ011-013-022-031-032-034-043-051-053.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-033-035-041-042-052.

&&

DEL/EAL

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