Storm Warning 29, NWS Juneau, AK

883 
FZAK52 PAJK 181532 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
732 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-190945-
732 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
High pressure over the southern panhandle will get pushed NE
into Canada Thursday afternoon. A storm force low will  move
into the Western Gulf from the south Thursday evening with the 
associated fronts passing over the panhandle Thursday night and 
Friday. 

$$

PKZ041-190945-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
732 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Light winds becoming SE 15 kt in the morning, then
increasing to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 40 kt. Seas 14 ft building to 18
ft late. Rain.
.FRI...SE gale to 40 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 18 ft. Rain in the morning, then showers and slight chance 
of thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. SW swell. Slight
chance of thunderstorms. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 11 ft. 



$$

PKZ042-190945-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
732 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the morning, then 
increasing to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt. Seas 15 ft building
to 20 ft late. Rain.
.FRI...S gale to 45 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 20 ft. Rain in the morning, then showers and slight chance 
of thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SUN...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 11 ft. 



$$

PKZ043-190945-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
732 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...STORM WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt becoming SE and increasing to 25 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt increasing to 50 kt late. Seas 16 ft 
building to 22 ft late. Rain.
.FRI...SE storm force wind to 50 kt becoming S gale to 35 kt in 
the afternoon. Seas 24 ft. Rain in the morning, then showers and
slight
chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SUN...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 12 ft. 



$$

PKZ051-190945-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
732 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. Rain showers  
and isolated thunderstorms. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 55 kt late. Seas 15 ft 
building to 23 ft late. Rain.
.FRI...SE storm force wind to 55 kt becoming S gale to 40 kt
in the afternoon. Seas 26 ft. Rain in the morning, then showers
and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 24 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SUN...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 12 ft. 



$$

PKZ052-190945-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
732 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 9 ft. Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt increasing to 55 kt late. Seas 15 ft 
building to 23 ft late. Rain.
.FRI...E storm force wind to 50 kt becoming S 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 25 ft. Rain in the morning, then showers in the
afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW gale to 40 kt. Seas 25 ft. Showers.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SUN...SE gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 11 ft. 



$$

578 
FZAK52 PAJK 181728 AAB
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
928 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-191130-
928 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
High pressure over the southern panhandle will get pushed NE
into Canada Thursday afternoon. A storm force low will  move
into the Western Gulf from the south Thursday evening with  the
associated fronts passing over the panhandle Thursday night  and
Friday.  

$$

PKZ041-191130-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
928 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Light winds becoming SE 15 kt in the morning, then
increasing to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 40 kt. Seas 14 ft building to 18
ft late. Rain.
.FRI...SE gale to 40 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 18 ft. Rain in the morning, then showers and slight chance 
of thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. SW swell. Slight
chance of thunderstorms. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 11 ft. 



$$

PKZ042-191130-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
928 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the morning, then 
increasing to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt. Seas 15 ft building
to 20 ft late. Rain.
.FRI...S gale to 45 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 20 ft. Rain in the morning, then showers and slight chance 
of thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SUN...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 11 ft. 



$$

PKZ043-191130-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
928 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Seas 9 ft. W 
swell.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt increasing to 50 kt late. Seas 16 ft 
building to 22 ft late. Rain.
.FRI...SE storm force wind to 50 kt becoming S gale to 35 kt in 
the afternoon. Seas 24 ft. Rain in the morning, then showers and
slight
chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SUN...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 12 ft. 



$$

PKZ051-191130-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
928 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...STORM WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. Rain showers  
and isolated thunderstorms. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 55 kt late. Seas 15 ft 
building to 23 ft late. Rain.
.FRI...SE storm force wind to 55 kt becoming S gale to 40 kt
in the afternoon. Seas 26 ft. Rain in the morning, then showers
and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 24 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SUN...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 12 ft. 



$$

PKZ052-191130-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
928 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...STORM WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 9 ft. Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt increasing to 55 kt late. Seas 15 ft 
building to 23 ft late. Rain.
.FRI...E storm force wind to 50 kt becoming S 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 25 ft. Rain in the morning, then showers in the
afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW gale to 40 kt. Seas 25 ft. Showers.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SUN...SE gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 11 ft. 



$$

471 
FZAK52 PAJK 182310
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
310 PM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-191715-
310 PM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A storm force low will move into the Western Gulf from the south 
Thursday evening with the associated front passing over the 
panhandle Thursday night and Friday. 

$$

PKZ041-191715-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
310 PM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt late. Seas 9 ft 
building to 18 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the morning. Seas 18 
ft. Rain in the morning, then showers and isolated thunderstorms 
in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing late. Seas 18 ft. W swell 
late. Showers and isolated thunderstorms in the evening. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. W swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 11 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-191715-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
310 PM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 45 kt. Seas 9 ft building
to 20 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 20 ft. Rain in the morning, then showers and isolated 
thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Showers and isolated 
thunderstorms in the evening. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. W swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 11 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-191715-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
310 PM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 50 kt. Seas 9 ft building 
to 22 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 50 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
25 ft. Rain in the morning, then showers and isolated 
thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. Showers and isolated 
thunderstorms in the evening. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 12 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-191715-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
310 PM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 55 kt. Seas 9 ft building to
22 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 50 kt becoming S 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
26 ft. Rain in the morning, then showers in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the evening, then showers late. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. SW swell. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 12 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-191715-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
310 PM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 60 kt. Seas 9 ft building
to 22 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 55 kt becoming S 45 in the afternoon. Seas 27 ft. 
Rain in the morning, then showers in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 25 ft. Showers in the
evening. 
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 11 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

013 
FZAK52 PAJK 191200
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
400 AM AKDT Fri Oct 19 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-200600-
400 AM AKDT Fri Oct 19 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A storm force front will pass over the panhandle Friday morning. 
Wind will shift to the SW behind the front in the afternoon.
Outlook. Another weather system will move into the Gulf from the 
SW Saturday night with gale force winds. 

$$

PKZ041-200600-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
400 AM AKDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt in the morning, becoming SW 30 kt. Seas 18
ft. Rain in the morning, then showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 18 ft. W
swell late. Isolated thunderstorms in the evening. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. W swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind increasing to 30 kt late. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft
subsiding to 11 ft. 
.TUE...SE gale to 40 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-200600-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
400 AM AKDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt in the morning, becoming S 30 kt. Seas
building to 20 ft. Rain in the morning, then showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Isolated thunderstorms in
the evening. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. W swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to gale 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt becoming SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft
subsiding to 11 ft. 
.TUE...SE gale to 40 kt becoming S 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-200600-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
400 AM AKDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 50 kt in the morning, becoming S 35 kt. Seas
building to 25 ft. Rain in the morning, then showers and isolated
thunderstorms. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas 23 ft. 
Showers and isolated thunderstorms in the evening. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to gale 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
Rain.
.SUN...SE gale to 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding
to 12 ft. 
.TUE...S gale to 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-200600-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
400 AM AKDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 50 kt in the morning, becoming S 40 kt. Seas
building to 26 ft. Rain early in the morning, then showers and 
isolated thunderstorms. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt late. Seas 25 ft. 
Showers and isolated thunderstorms. 
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft. SW swell. Rain in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to gale to 40 kt. Seas 20 
ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE gale to 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 12 ft. 
.TUE...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-200600-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
400 AM AKDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt in the morning, becoming S 45 kt. Seas
building to 26 ft. Rain early in the morning, then showers and
isolated thunderstorms. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt late. Seas 25 ft. 
Showers in the evening.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 17 ft. SW swell in the morning. Rain in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 11 ft. 
.TUE...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

534 
FZAK52 PAJK 192338
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
338 PM AKDT Fri Oct 19 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-201745-
338 PM AKDT Fri Oct 19 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Strong S to SW winds will gradually diminish through Sat.
Another gale force front will move into the Gulf from the SW
Saturday night before stalling and weakening over the eastern
gulf and northern panhandle into Sun night.  

$$

PKZ041-201745-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
338 PM AKDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing late. Seas 20 ft subsiding
late. W swell late. Showers and isolated thunderstorms in the 
evening. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft. W swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...SE gale to 40 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt. Seas 16 ft building
to 24 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-201745-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
338 PM AKDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft subsiding late. Showers. 
Scattered thunderstorms in the evening, then isolated 
thunderstorms late. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. W swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SUN...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 20 kt becoming SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...SE gale to 40 kt becoming S 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt. Seas 14 ft building
to 21 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-201745-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
338 PM AKDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas 25 ft
subsiding late. Showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 19 ft 
subsiding to 15 ft in the afternoon. SW swell in the morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 15 ft building to 19 ft
late. Rain.
.SUN...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE...S gale to 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 18 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-201745-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
338 PM AKDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 27 ft subsiding late. Isolated 
thunderstorms in the evening. Showers. 
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft. SW swell in the morning. Rain in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 15 ft building to 19 ft
late. Rain.
.SUN...S gale to 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-201745-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
338 PM AKDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt becoming SW 35 kt late. Seas 29 ft
subsiding late. Showers in the evening. 
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 18 ft subsiding to 14 ft in the afternoon. SW swell in the
morning. Rain in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt becoming E. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
306 PM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018

.SHORT TERM.../Through Friday night/ The front that brought all
the rain to the panhandle for the last few days is finally on the
way out. Rain from this front still lingers around the extreme SE
panhandle this afternoon and should move out completely this
evening. Showers rule the day for the rest of the panhandle with
the highest concentration seen in the northern gulf and northern
panhandle.

Into Tonight and Thu, that weather picture does not change all
that much. Showers will continue to concentrate in the north and
overall winds will stay at 20 kt or below for most areas. Some
instability over the gulf due to cooler air aloft and the warm
water temperature may allow some of these showers to become strong
enough to generate some lightning so a slight chance of
thunderstorms remains in the forecast for tonight for some areas.

The main focus for the short range shows up Thu night as a storm
force low wraps northward into the western gulf pushing a strong
front into the panhandle. Low level jet strength is expected to
reach nearly 70 kt at 850 mb late Thu night along the outer coast
while it weakens to 50 to 65 kt farther inland and in the southern
panhandle. Winds along the front have been increased with the
highest winds expected along the outer coast from Baranof Island
northward where a High Wind Watch has been issued for gusts up to
60 mph possible. Storm force winds are still expected in the
northern and central gulf. The rest of the panhandle can now
expect gusts anywhere from 40 to 55 mph during frontal passage
late Thu night and early Fri. Confidence is moderate for the high
wind as the indicators for high wind gusts are rather border line
with this front. However, confidence for gusts higher then 40 mph
and the storm force winds in the gulf is high given the low level
jet strength and decent agreement in the guidance. Winds will
diminish post front but a strong second wrap to the system is
expected to keep winds at max gale force in the central and
northern gulf through Friday before slowly diminishing Fri night.

The rain will also play a roll in this front. Like the previous
system, the tropical connection is rather robust with high values
of Water Vapor and Water Vapor Transport aimed at the panhandle.
Unlike the previous system, this front is not expected to stall
anywhere and will push the highest rain rates through rather
quickly. Heaviest rainfall is expected late Thu night into mid day
Fri with total rainfall pushing 1 to 2 inches across the
panhandle through some local areas could see higher amounts. A
rapid transition to convective showers is expected post front
with strong onshore flow. Some of these showers could be heavy
with some embedded thunderstorms as a pool of cool air wraps
around behind the system so another area of slight chance of
thunderstorms was added in the gulf and gulf coast for Fri into
Fri night.

LONG TERM.../ Friday to Wednesday as of 10 pm Tuesday / Active
fall weather pattern will continue through early next week. Highly
amplified long wave trough in place over the AK Peninsula
extending well south into the subtropical NPAC. An impressive PV
max on the nose of a 130kt+ upper jet will eject northward into
the northern Gulf by early Friday. These upper features align well
with the low level frontal zone so expect the resultant low/front
to be quite intense. Ensemble IVT probabilities show 80-90%
likelihood of IVT in excess of 500 kg/m/s by mid day Friday which
matches most operational guidance depiction of a deep subtropical
moisture plume being drawn northward into the Panhandle. Another
period of heavy rainfall is likely Friday across much of the
Panhandle. Winds will also increase rapidly over the Gulf with
ensemble probs of storm force conditions over the northern Gulf
quite high for a 72 hr forecast. Models still differ on the
placement of any significant surface wave development on the front
for Friday, with the EC being the odd man in the collection of
models solutions. Stayed with the GFS to WPC solutions as the
support for the small changes in the extended. Bottom line, while
not explicitly in the forecast due to uncertainty at this time,
there is the potential for a strong fall wind storm on Friday for
parts of the Panhandle.

On the plus side, the persistent long wave ridging which has kept
much needed soaking rainfall out of the drought affected areas of
the southern Panhandle shows signs of becoming flatter and more
progressive. This would allow more significant rainfall to affect
even southern areas beginning on Friday and continuing into early
next week.

The tail end of the Day 6 to Day 8 forecast block has the hints
of yet another moist frontal system sweeping across the gulf from
the south as the main low tracks to the eastern Bering Sea. They
are also suggesting that there is at least one more wave on the
front that should roll up along coastal waters and either hit or
graze the southern panhandle. Will need to watch this system as
it develops and there should be a solid band of winds with it.
Long range forecast confidence is average.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Another period of heavy rain is in the cards for most
of the panhandle. However unlike the previous front, the high
rain rates are not expected to linger. Total expected rainfall is
expected to be around 1 to 2 inches for most areas Thu night into
Fri. We do have a two day period of drier weather before that wet
front moves in though so rivers will have a chance to shed some
of the excess water in their basins. However, soils in the
northern half of the panhandle are mostly saturated from the last
rains, so smaller rivers and streams are expected to rise with
some possibly approaching bankfull by Friday.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for AKZ017-022-023.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053.

&&

EAL/DEL

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