Storm Warning 27, NWS Juneau, AK

199 
FZAK52 PAJK 152322
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
322 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-161730-
322 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Another strong front will move into the eastern Gulf early Tue
morning but will weaken as it moves onto the central Panhandle
coast Tue. Expect a SW fetch for swells on Wed. The next system
will impact the eastern Gulf on Thu night and Fri.  

$$

PKZ041-161730-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
322 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming W late. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding to 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-161730-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
322 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt. Seas 9 ft
building to 13 ft. 
.FRI...SE gale to 35 kt becoming S 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-161730-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
322 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain. 
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. Showers and
slight chance of thunderstorms late. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. Showers.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. Showers.
.THU...S wind 25 kt becoming SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 10 ft
building to 15 ft. 
.FRI...S gale to 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-161730-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
322 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...STORM WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 50 kt. Seas 14 ft 
building to 18 ft late. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt becoming 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft.
Showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. Showers and
slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. Showers.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. Showers.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 40 kt. Seas 10 ft
building to 16 ft. 
.FRI...S gale to 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-161730-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
322 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt increasing to 50 kt late. Seas 13 ft 
building to 18 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Showers. Slight chance of 
thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. Showers and 
slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. Showers.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. Showers.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt becoming E gale to 40 kt. Seas 9 ft
building to 17 ft. 
.FRI...SE gale to 45 kt becoming S 30 kt. Seas 26 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft subsiding to 13 ft. 

$$

334 
FZAK52 PAJK 161140
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
340 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-170545-
340 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A strong front over the eastern Gulf will move east over the
panhandle through Tuesday afternoon and evening with a period of 
gusty winds. Winds will shift to the SW behind the front and SW 
swell will keep seas elevated Wednesday. Outlook. A storm force 
low pressure system will move into the Gulf from the south
Thursday night. 

$$

PKZ041-170545-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
340 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 15 kt late. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt. Seas 9 ft 
building to 14 ft. 
.FRI...SE gale to 35 kt becoming SW 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-170545-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
340 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 15 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain 
showers.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 40 kt. Seas 10 ft
building to 15 ft. 
.FRI...SE gale to 40 kt becoming SW 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-170545-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
340 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. Showers and
slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. Showers in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 40 kt. Seas 11 ft
building to 16 ft. 
.FRI...SE gale to 45 kt becoming SW 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-170545-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
340 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 17 ft. Rain in the morning, then showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt late. Seas 13 ft. 
Showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Showers.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. Showers.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt becoming E gale to 45 kt. Seas 10 ft
building to 18 ft. 
.FRI...SE storm force wind to 50 kt becoming SW 30 kt. Seas
19 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft subsiding to 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-170545-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
340 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 50 kt becoming S 25 kt in the morning. Seas 19 
ft subsiding to 15 ft in the afternoon. Rain early in the morning,
then showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. Showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Showers.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind increasing to 25 kt late. Seas 10 ft. SW 
swell. Showers.
.THU...E wind 30 kt increasing to gale to 45 kt. Seas 11 ft
building to 19 ft. 
.FRI...E storm force wind to 50 kt becoming S 30 kt. Seas
20 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 11 ft. 

$$

920 
FZAK52 PAJK 162316
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
316 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-171730-
316 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A strong front over the Panhandle will move east into Canada
through Wed afternoon with a period of gusty winds. Winds will 
shift to the SW behind the front and SW swell will keep seas 
elevated Wednesday. Outlook. A storm force low pressure system 
will move into the Gulf from the south Thursday night. 

$$

PKZ041-171730-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
316 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 15 kt late. Seas 14 ft. Rain
in the evening. 
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. W swell. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE gale to 45 kt becoming SW 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-171730-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
316 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 15 kt late. Seas 14 ft. Rain 
in the evening. 
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE gale to 45 kt becoming SW 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-171730-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
316 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt late. Seas 14 ft. Rain
in the evening, then showers and slight chance of thunderstorms 
late.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. Slight
chance of thunderstorms. 
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE gale to 45 kt becoming SW 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-171730-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
316 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 14 ft.
Showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Showers and slight chance
of thunderstorms. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. Showers and
slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE storm force wind to 50 kt becoming SW 30 kt. Seas
19 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft subsiding to 11 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-171730-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
316 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. Showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Showers and slight chance
of thunderstorms. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. Showers
and slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E storm force wind to 50 kt becoming S 30 kt. Seas
20 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 11 ft. 
.SUN...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
316 PM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...Satellite imagery and surface analysis indicate a
frontal boundary across the N central panhandle with another wave
traversing the NE along the boundary out of the NE Pac. This will
allow the gradient to relax ever so slightly this afternoon/evening
as the frontal boundary begins to be pull back NW. The gradient
will tighten over the N gulf again Mon with a gale force Ely barrier
jet developing along the N gulf coast. Winds will remain gusty but
have diminished below headline criteria. Expect breezy conditions
to persist through Mon with potential for strong wind headlines
for the N gulf coast Mon evening. Sat imagery continues to show
deep moisture advecting into the region so expect continued
periods of moderate to heavy rain N of Frederick Sound. As wave
approaches the boundary will push slightly E before regressing NW,
so kept mention of chc precip this evening over the S panhandle.
Precip amounts will range from a few hundredths to a tenth S of
Sumner Strait with widespread amounts from 1-4 inches with
localized amounts to 6 inches along the outer coast and flood
advisories are in effect for AKZ018>022-025. Model solutions
remain in good agreement with the synoptic pattern including winds
and precip amounts. With clearer skies and lighter winds over the
S panhandle, added some patchy fog overnight into Mon mainly S of
Sumner Strait. Inherited forecast represented this well with
adjustments mainly to account for current trends and add mention
of fog overnight into Mon. Overall, forecast confidence remains
above average.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through next weekend, as of 10 PM
Saturday/...Tuesday will begin with the remnants of the
atmospheric river (AR) slowly dissipating over southeast Alaska.
Occasional heavy rainfall may still occur Tuesday morning,
especially along the northeast Gulf coast; however, Tuesday's
rainfall totals will be significantly less than those of this
weekend. A brief dry period will occur after the AR ends. Late in
the week the next low will move into the Gulf; this system
continues to look very fall-like and will likely carry a band of
gale force winds along its associated front as well as a period of
heavy rain for portions of the Panhandle. The weekend as a whole
looks active with a second low tracking into the Gulf on Sunday.

Very little change was made in the extended forecast. With
stronger winds and high chances of precipitation already
introduced yesterday associated with the low that pushes into the
gulf Friday, changing these fields would not add value to the
existing forecast. Currently, it is still too difficult to
accurately speculate where and when the low will ultimately end up
tracking. Ensemble spreads remain large with operational models
in poor agreement with the handling of the system. Forecast
confidence remains above average Tuesday and Wednesday; however,
it is below average beyond that timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...Widespread MVMC conditions along with breezy winds,
LGT-MDT turb and some LLWS prevail Sun afternoon. Little change
expected through the forecast outside of conditions lowering to
IMC in heavier precip. Conditions over the S panhandle not as
breezy as N of Sumner Strait, but MVMC cigs persist. Some clearing
expected over the S panhandle overnight with some patchy fog
developing late resulting in IMC by Mon morning.

&&

.MARINE...Winds have diminished slightly this afternoon with gales
lowered over N Lynn Canal. However, gales continue over Cross
Sound but are expected to ease further this evening. Elsewhere, in
the inner channels advisory level winds persist and expected to
continue through Mon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...An atmospheric river continues to produce mdt-hvy
precip over the N central inner channels this afternoon. A
secondary wave will push this feature slightly E then back NW
tonight. Expect precip amounts to ease slightly this evening then
increase late as the boundary begins pushing back NW. The Taiya
River, Mendenhall Lake and Montana Creek along with the ungauged
rivers and streams over the N central inner channels are currently
under flood advisories through Mon. Rapid rises from moderate to
heavy rains are possible along with mudslides in steeper terrain.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Areal Flood Advisory until noon AKDT Monday for AKZ019>022-025.
     Areal Flood Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-031>036-041-042-053.

&&

BC/JB

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau