Storm Warning 14, NWS Juneau, AK

164 
FZAK52 PAJK 250535 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
835 PM AKST Sat Feb 24 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-252345-
835 PM AKST Sat Feb 24 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A storm force low in the eastern gulf will make landfall S of
Cape Edgecombe Sat evening. This low will then  track SE across
the southern panhandle Saturday night. A new gale force low will
track E across the northern gulf toward Yakutat late Sun night. 

$$

PKZ041-252345-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
835 PM AKST Sat Feb 24 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas building to 27 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt diminishing in the afternoon. Seas 25 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt late. Seas 18 ft. 
.MON...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W gale to 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain and snow
showers. 
.TUE...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.WED...W wind 30 kt becoming N. Seas 18 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 



$$

PKZ042-252345-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
835 PM AKST Sat Feb 24 2018

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.REST OF TONIGHT...NW wind 50 kt diminishing late. Seas building
to 27 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. W swell. 
.MON...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain and snow
showers. 
.TUE...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft subsiding to 15 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 



$$

PKZ043-252345-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
835 PM AKST Sat Feb 24 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt becoming N in the evening, then becoming
NW 30 kt late. Highest winds southern half. Seas building to 24 
ft. Rain showers in the evening.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. W swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. W swell. Rain and snow
late. 
.MON...W gale to 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain and snow
showers. 
.TUE...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. 



$$

PKZ051-252345-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
835 PM AKST Sat Feb 24 2018

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing late. Highest winds 
southern half. Seas building to 18 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. W swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming S late. Seas 13 ft. W
swell. Snow and rain late. 
.MON...W gale to 45 kt. Gusts to 60 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain and snow
showers. 
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 



$$

PKZ052-252345-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
835 PM AKST Sat Feb 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Highest winds southern half. Seas
building to 16 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt late. Seas 12 ft.
SW swell. Rain and snow late. 
.MON...W gale to 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 



$$

706 
FZAK52 PAJK 251359
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
459 AM AKST Sun Feb 25 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-260800-
459 AM AKST Sun Feb 25 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A weakening low over the Southern panhandle will continue to
dissipate as it drifts into the Canada. A new storm  force low
will track E across the northern gulf to be just south  of
Yakutat by Monday morning.  

$$

PKZ041-260800-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
459 AM AKST Sun Feb 25 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 25 ft. Rain and snow showers early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow in the morning,
then rain showers in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...W gale to 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...W gale to 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.WED...W wind 30 kt becoming N. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-260800-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
459 AM AKST Sun Feb 25 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the morning. Seas 
23 ft. Rain showers early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. W swell. 
.MON...S gale to 35 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft. Rain and snow in the morning, then rain showers in the
afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...W gale to 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain and snow
showers. 
.TUE...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.WED...N wind 25 kt becoming NE gale to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-260800-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
459 AM AKST Sun Feb 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft. W swell. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. W swell. Snow and rain late.
.MON...S wind to 30 kt becoming W gale 45 kt in the afternoon. 
Gusts to 65 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19 ft. Rain and snow in the 
morning, then rain showers in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...W gale to 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain and snow
showers. 
.TUE...W gale to 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.WED...E wind 30 kt increasing to gale to 40 kt. Seas
15 ft. 
.THU...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-260800-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
459 AM AKST Sun Feb 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft. W swell. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming S late. Seas 13 ft. W swell.
Snow and rain late. 
.MON...W storm force wind to 50 kt diminishing to gale to
40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19 ft. Rain and snow in the morning,
then rain showers in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain and snow
showers. 
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.WED...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-260800-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
459 AM AKST Sun Feb 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 15 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming E late. Seas 12 ft. SW swell.
Snow and rain late. 
.MON...W gale to 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain and snow in the
morning, then rain and snow showers in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft subsiding to 18 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
253 PM AKST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SHORT TERM.../Through Sunday night/ A storm force low over the NE
gulf will move SE across southern Baranof Island to the southern
panhandle tonight, then exit SE of the area Sun morning. The low
will weaken gradually late tonight into Sun. Another low will
develop along an eastward moving occluded front over the NW gulf
Sun night. Primarily used 12z GFS/NAM blend with a bit more weight
to the GFS as its slightly faster movement of the Sun night system
was preferred.

Will be allowing the WWY for zones 20/21/24 to expire at 4 pm, and
keeping WWY/WSW for zones 25/26 through 6 pm. Precip will
transition to showers early this evening over the inner channels.
Some warmer air moving in will cause at least a mix of rain and snow
showers over the S half of the area tonight. Think the N will see
precip taper off this evening as low moves S of the area and
increasing N flow develops. The showers will diminish over the S
later tonight and Sun morning as low moves out of the area.

There will be some colder air moving into the N tonight behind the
departing low. Should see clearing conditions developing Sun with
some ridging moving in. Any breaks will not last too long though
as clouds will be increasing again ahead of the next system Sun
night, with some precip expected over the outer coast and N half
of the inner channels by late Sun night. Looks like precip will
start as snow.

Winds will be strongest over the gulf on S side of low moving SE
tonight. Expect gale to storm force W-NW winds tonight with some
gradual diminishing later tonight and Sun as low moves out. Winds
should drop to SCA levels by Sun afternoon over the S gulf. Gale
force winds will be nearing the central gulf late Sun night as
next system moves in. Inner channel winds will be SCA level ahead
of low moving in tonight. N winds will pick up to SCA to gale
force over the N channels tonight as low moves S of the area.
These winds should drop off slowly Sun as pressure gradient
weakens. Inner channel winds should shift to southerly Sun night
and rapidly increase to SCA levels by late Sun night, especially
over the N half of the area.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Saturday/ Active weather pattern
through the long range with some significant model changes in the
mid range. At mid levels starting Monday 500 mb high pressure
moves over the panhandle into western Canada with a trough digging
down from the AK interior and Yukon into the NE Gulf. The main
circulation over the arctic will rotate in more waves to the
south keeping a source of cold air over the region through mid
week. Between meridional pattern of the first wave on Monday and a
second deeper wave on Tuesday night into Wednesday there will be
a short period of zonal flow. Sharp ridging rebuilds over the gulf
late week setting up for an outflow wind event.

At the surface a deep closed low develops over the NE gulf Monday
with associated frontal boundary moving over the panhandle
through the day. Due to the remaining cold air expect another
snow event with potential of 1 to 3 inches for some locations. As
the front is showing a fast track expect this would keep lower
QPF totals and thus be a limiting factor for snowfall. After the
main front tracks east post frontal showers with onshore flow
will continue. Still uncertainty on the next system developing
over the eastern gulf Thursday but at this time looks like it
will track to the south and main impact will be increasing
pressure gradient and outflow winds. For the Monday system, models
now in better agreement of a stronger frontal boundary over the
gulf and thus have increased westerly winds to gale force, with
potential for localized storm force. Stronger winds expected at
higher elevations but at least picking up 20 to 25 kt southerly
winds over the inner channels. winds diminish by Tuesday as the
front moves inland and by Thursday, gradient flips to northerly
with increasing winds speeds.

Fair agreement between NAM and GFS for Monday, which were changed
from previous runs and inherited forecast. Used a blend of GFS/NAM
Monday to Tuesday then use of NBM/WPC for the rest of the long
range. Improved confidence on the higher winds for Monday with
the newly analyzed low but still some question on snow totals.
Lower confidence by mid week in the final track of surface
features but upper pattern meridional flow is likely.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ026.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM AKST this afternoon for
     AKZ020>022-024.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ025.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ042.
     Gale Warning for PKZ012-041-043-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-021-022-031>036-052.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053.

&&

RWT/Voveris

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