High Wind Warning 11, NWS Juneau, AK

455 
WWAK77 PAJK 230649
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1049 PM AKDT Mon Oct 22 2018

...HIGH WINDS TONIGHT ALONG THE PORTIONS OF THE OUTER COAST
TONIGHT...

A rapidly developing low pressure system west of Washington State
will move north to the north central gulf by Tuesday morning.
High winds with the associated front will sweep north along the
outer coast beginning late this evening and reach the northeast
gulf coast by Tuesday morning.

AKZ023-026-027-231400-
/O.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-181023T1400Z/
Cape Decision to Salisbury Sound Coastal Area-
Inner Channels from Kupreanof Island to Etolin Island-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision Coastal Area-
Including the cities of Sitka, Port Alexander, Petersburg, 
Wrangell, Kake, Craig, and Klawock
1049 PM AKDT Mon Oct 22 2018

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKDT TUESDAY...

* LOCATION...Kake, Kuiu Island, northern and western Prince of
  Wales Island including Point Baker, Hydaburg, Port Alexander and
  Sitka.

* WINDS...Southeasterly winds with gusts to 60 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will increase through the evening hours with 
  peak conditions late in the night. 

* IMPACTS...Loose objects may be blown around and become missile 
  hazards. Improperly secured boats and aircraft outdoors will 
  be at risk for damage. Travel will become hazardous. Power 
  failures may occur due to falling branches or trees. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A high wind warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 MPH or gusts
of 58 MPH or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

AKZ017-232200-
/O.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0011.181023T1400Z-181024T0000Z/
Cape Fairweather to Cape Suckling Coastal Area-
Including the city of Yakutat
1049 PM AKDT Mon Oct 22 2018

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM AKDT
TUESDAY...

* LOCATION...Northeast Gulf Coast including Yakutat.

* WINDS...Southeasterly winds with gusts to 60 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will begin to increase late Monday night and 
  peak during the late morning hours of Tuesday. 

* IMPACTS...Loose objects may be blown around and become missile 
  hazards. Improperly secured boats and aircraft outdoors will 
  be at risk for damage. Travel will become hazardous. Power 
  failures may occur due to falling branches or trees. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A high wind warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 MPH or gusts
of 58 MPH or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

031 
WWAK77 PAJK 231238
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
438 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018


AKZ023-026-027-231345-
/O.CAN.PAJK.HW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-181023T1400Z/
Cape Decision to Salisbury Sound Coastal Area-
Inner Channels from Kupreanof Island to Etolin Island-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision Coastal Area-
Including the cities of Sitka, Port Alexander, Petersburg, 
Wrangell, Kake, Craig, and Klawock
438 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Juneau has cancelled the High
Wind Warning. 

The strong weather front over the AK gulf is moving northward.
Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will continue through the morning.
Another strong low with increased winds will move into the area
Wednesday.

This will be the final statement on this event.
 

$$

AKZ017-240000-
/O.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0011.181023T1400Z-181024T0000Z/
Cape Fairweather to Cape Suckling Coastal Area-
Including the city of Yakutat
438 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATION...Northeast Gulf Coast including Yakutat.

* WINDS...Southeasterly winds with gusts to 60 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will begin to increase early Tuesday morning and
  peak during the early afternoon Tuesday. 

* IMPACTS...Loose objects may be blown around and become missile 
  hazards. Improperly secured boats and aircraft outdoors will 
  be at risk for damage. Travel will become hazardous. Power 
  failures may occur due to falling branches or trees. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A high wind warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 MPH or gusts
of 58 MPH or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

624 
WWAK77 PAJK 232005
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1205 PM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018


AKZ017-232115-
/O.CAN.PAJK.HW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-181024T0000Z/
Cape Fairweather to Cape Suckling Coastal Area-
Including the city of Yakutat
1205 PM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Juneau has cancelled the High
Wind Warning. 

The high wind gusts ended up developing farther south and west. 
Some gusts to 40 mph could still occur through the afternoon but 
high wind gusts are not expected for the rest of the day.

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
246 PM AKDT Mon Oct 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...A very dynamic system continues to develop over the
gulf this afternoon, and a very active pattern is expected to
continue through this short term forecast period. An even stronger
low is then expected to develop and take a similar track to our
current system beginning this Wednesday.

According to current WV satellite imagery, a broad upper level
trough extends south through the Aleutian Islands and western
gulf, extending even deeper into the Pacific. A strong upper
level ridge over the western CONUS pushes even further north into
British Columbia, answering the deepening ridge. The tightening
pressure gradient between these two features has allowed a
relatively strong jet to form, which continues to advect large
amounts of moisture into the Alaskan panhandle. Many locations
automated surface observing systems continue to report moderate
rainfall this afternoon, with hourly observations between a tenth
and two tenths of an inch. Rain, heavy at times, will continue
through tonight for areas in the northern panhandle as the stream
of moisture pivots north with the developing shortwave. This
shortwave can also be seen on satellite embedded within the main
trough and beginning to lifting north and strengthen. In addition
to the upper level jet mentioned previously, it also lies within
the left exit region of an additional jet streak, providing
divergence aloft and also helping to strengthen this feature. As
this low further develops Tuesday, the dynamics will become
favorable for thunderstorm development, especially over the
eastern gulf waters, but lightning strikes cannot be discounted on
land, especially for areas susceptible to terrain enhancement.
Both GFS and NAM forecast soundings for Klawock and Sitka show
sfc-3km lapse rates greater than 7 degrees C/km and CAPE in excess
of 300 J/kg. There will be decent instability as the low further
lifts north Tuesday evening.

Models continue to come into better agreement on another strong
low impacting SE Alaska beginning Wednesday. This will take a
somewhat similar track to the low impacting us tomorrow, but
stronger jet dynamics will make this a stronger contender. The
biggest concerns with both the system for Tuesday and this
developing system for Wednesday will be the winds. At issue first
will be a high wind event for the southern outer coast tonight.
925mb streamlines and isotachs indicating 65 kts of wind along the
coast of Prince of Wales Island with as much as 55 kts of wind
over northern Kuiu Island - more than enough to produce 60 mph
wind gusts at the surface. High wind warning for western portions
of zone 26 - to include Kake and Point Baker - zone 27, and
southern Baranof Island. Main focus on Baranof will be the eastern
shore and the communities of Port Alexander, Port Walter, and Port
Armstrong. Do not think high wind gusts will make it as far north
as Sitka, but the low level jet setup is very similar to the last
strong wind event, when Sitka Harbor recorded a 70 mph wind gust.
As the front associated with these high winds tracks north,
Yakutat will see high winds beginning tomorrow morning and a high
wind warning has been issued for there as well. Streamline flow
has enough of an offshore component that wind gusts in zone 22
should remain below 60 mph. Strong wind headlines there, as well
as various other places on the inside. Marine winds tonight and
tomorrow over the eastern gulf will be at the high end of gale,
possibly higher. High confidence is a storm force barrier jet
between Icy Bay and Cape Suckling tomorrow morning. There will be
a brief break in the wind action Tuesday night and Wednesday in
that there will be no wind warnings, but another storm force low
is forecast to enter the gulf from the south Wednesday afternoon,
taking a similar track as the low responsible for high winds
tonight & tomorrow. High hinds possible once again for zones 23,
26, and 27 Wednesday afternoon and overnight. If models remain
consistent, another high wind watch may be issued once the current
storm is out of the picture. We're not in Kansas any more.

.LONG TERM.../ Thursday to Monday as of 10 pm Sunday / The active
weather pattern will persist from the middle of the week through
the weekend as a parade of lows and weather fronts continue to
move through the gulf on a similar track. Overall the long range
pattern has not changed through this timeframe.

Showers across the gulf and panhandle for Friday into Saturday.
The next system approaching out of the North Pacific moves to the
southern gulf by Saturday morning. Models have continued
consistency issues of position on this and will strengthening some
though Sunday. Forecast confidence is average in the late time
frames.

Temperatures from Thursday to Saturday were were cooled slightly
behind the big Thursday front and snow levels as a result lowered
slightly too, Although only the higher elevation should expect to
see any snow.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Tuesday
     for AKZ023-026-027.
     Strong Wind from 1 AM AKDT Tuesday through Tuesday morning for
     AKZ021-022.
     High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 4 PM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ017.
     Strong Wind from 10 PM AKDT this evening through late tonight
     for AKZ028.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ052.
     Gale Warning for PKZ022-033-035-036-041>043-051-053.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-031-032-034.

&&

Fritsch/Voveris/Bezenek

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