High Wind Warning 10, NWS Juneau, AK

622 
WWAK77 PAJK 191440
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
640 AM AKDT Fri Oct 19 2018


AKZ022-023-192000-
/O.EXB.PAJK.HW.W.0009.181019T1440Z-181019T2000Z/
Salisbury Sound to Cape Fairweather Coastal Area-
Cape Decision to Salisbury Sound Coastal Area-
Including the cities of Elfin Cove, Pelican, Sitka, 
and Port Alexander
640 AM AKDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKDT TODAY...

The National Weather Service in Juneau has issued a High Wind
Warning, which is in effect until noon AKDT today. 

* LOCATION...The outer coast from Cape Fairweather to Cape
  Decision, including Elfin Cove and Sitka. 

* WINDS...Southeast wind 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph. 
  Shifting to the SW behind the front. 

* TIMING...Peak winds expected during the early morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel by aircraft or boat will become impractical. 
  Loose objects will be blown about and may become missile 
  hazards. Power outages may occur due to falling branches on 
  power lines. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A high wind warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 MPH or gusts
of 58 MPH or more can lead to property damage

&&

$$

AKZ017-200000-
/O.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0009.181019T1500Z-181020T0000Z/
Cape Fairweather to Cape Suckling Coastal Area-
Including the city of Yakutat
640 AM AKDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATION...The outer coast from Cape Fairweather to Cape 
  Suckling, including Yakutat. 

* WINDS...Southeast winds increasing to 30 to 40 mph with gusts 
  to 65 mph. Shifting to the SW behind the front. 

* TIMING...Peak winds expected during late morning frontal 
  passage. 

* IMPACTS...Travel by aircraft or boat will become impractical. 
  Loose objects will be blown about and may become missile 
  hazards. Power outages may occur due to falling branches on 
  power lines. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A high wind warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 MPH or gusts
of 58 MPH or more can lead to property damage

&&

$$

AKZ018-200245-
/O.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0010.181020T0000Z-181020T1200Z/
Taiya Inlet and Klondike Highway-
Including the city of Skagway
640 AM AKDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 4 AM AKDT SATURDAY...

* LOCATION...Near Skagway and along the Klondike Highway to 
  White Pass. 

* WINDS...Southwest winds increasing to 35 to 45 mph with gusts 
  to 60 mph and up to 70 mph near White Pass. 

* TIMING...Peak winds are expected during the late evening hours 
  of Friday. 

* IMPACTS...Travel will become hazardous. Loose objects will be 
  blown around. Improperly moored boats may break free. Power 
  outages may occur and trees may be downed and block roadways. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A high wind warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 MPH or gusts
of 58 MPH or more can lead to property damage

&&

$$

290 
WWAK77 PAJK 191940
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1140 AM AKDT Fri Oct 19 2018

AKZ022-023-192045-
/O.EXP.PAJK.HW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-181019T2000Z/
Salisbury Sound to Cape Fairweather Coastal Area-
Cape Decision to Salisbury Sound Coastal Area-
Including the cities of Elfin Cove, Pelican, Sitka, 
and Port Alexander
1140 AM AKDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT NOON AKDT TODAY...

High wind gusts have diminished. Strong wind gusts to 40 mph are
still possible through the afternoon. 

$$

AKZ017-200000-
/O.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-181020T0000Z/
Cape Fairweather to Cape Suckling Coastal Area-
Including the city of Yakutat
1140 AM AKDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATION...The outer coast from Cape Fairweather to Cape 
  Suckling, including Yakutat. 

* WINDS...Southeast winds increasing to 30 to 40 mph with gusts 
  to 65 mph. Shifting to the SW behind the front. 

* TIMING...Peak winds expected during late morning frontal 
  passage. 

* IMPACTS...Travel by aircraft or boat will become impractical. 
  Loose objects will be blown about and may become missile 
  hazards. Power outages may occur due to falling branches on 
  power lines. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A high wind warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 MPH or gusts
of 58 MPH or more can lead to property damage

&&

$$

AKZ018-200745-
/O.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0010.181020T0000Z-181020T1200Z/
Taiya Inlet and Klondike Highway-
Including the city of Skagway
1140 AM AKDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 4 AM AKDT SATURDAY...

* LOCATION...Near Skagway and along the Klondike Highway to 
  White Pass. 

* WINDS...Southwest winds increasing to 35 to 45 mph with gusts 
  to 60 mph and up to 70 mph near White Pass. 

* TIMING...Peak winds are expected during the late evening hours 
  of Friday. 

* IMPACTS...Travel will become hazardous. Loose objects will be 
  blown around. Improperly moored boats may break free. Power 
  outages may occur and trees may be downed and block roadways. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A high wind warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 MPH or gusts
of 58 MPH or more can lead to property damage

&&

$$

418 
WWAK77 PAJK 192336
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
336 PM AKDT Fri Oct 19 2018

AKZ017-200045-
/O.CAN.PAJK.HW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-181020T0000Z/
Cape Fairweather to Cape Suckling Coastal Area-
Including the city of Yakutat
336 PM AKDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Juneau has cancelled the High
Wind Warning. 

High winds have ended in the warning area. Maximum winds recorded
at the Yakutat airport were 55 mph. 

$$

AKZ018-201145-
/O.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0010.181020T0000Z-181020T1200Z/
Taiya Inlet and Klondike Highway-
Including the city of Skagway
336 PM AKDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM AKDT SATURDAY...

* LOCATION...Near Skagway and along the Klondike Highway to 
  White Pass. 

* WINDS...Southwest winds increasing to 35 to 45 mph with gusts 
  to 60 mph and up to 70 mph near White Pass. 

* TIMING...Peak winds are expected during the late evening hours 
  of Friday. 

* IMPACTS...Travel will become hazardous. Loose objects will be 
  blown around. Improperly moored boats may break free. Power 
  outages may occur and trees may be downed and block roadways. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A high wind warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 MPH or gusts
of 58 MPH or more can lead to property damage

&&

$$

885 
WWAK77 PAJK 201134
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
334 AM AKDT Sat Oct 20 2018

AKZ018-201245-
/O.CAN.PAJK.HW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-181020T1200Z/
Taiya Inlet and Klondike Highway-
Including the city of Skagway
334 AM AKDT Sat Oct 20 2018

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Juneau has cancelled the High
Wind Warning. 

The strongest winds have ended for the Skagway area including the
Klondike Highway up to White Pass. Strong wind gusts up to 55 MPH
may occur through the mid morning hours. The entirety of of the
day will be breezy as well.

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
305 PM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

.SHORT TERM.../Through Saturday night/ A wet and windy night as
well as friday is still in the works as a storm force front moves
over the panhandle. Low level jet strength along the front is
still suggested to be around 50 to 65 kt over most of the
panhandle as the front moves through which is plenty for gusts of
40 to 55 mph at the surface for most areas. Strong wind headlines
have been issued for most of the panhandle as a result. The high
wind watch that was up for the Sitka and Pelican area has been
changed to a strong wind headline as concerns about low level flow
being more offshore here as well as the possibility that the
atmosphere might be a little too stable to allow the really high
winds aloft to shift down to the surface. The northern gulf coast
on the other hand has the double whammy of the initial front
followed by the second wrap coming in later on Friday. Guidance
today has shifted the position of the second wrap farther east
into a more favorable position for high winds at Yakutat. As a
result, the high wind watch that was up for Yakutat has been
upgraded to a warning for gusts up to 65 mph mainly for when the
second wrap comes in on Fri. Winds gradually diminish after
frontal passage through Sat though Lynn Canal and Skagway may need
until Sat night for winds to diminish there. Winds in the gulf
then start to increase again as the next front starts to advance.

Rain will be the other concern with this front. Satellite Precipiable
Water retrievals show a well developed tropical connection with
values of just over an inch in PW throughout the plume (which is
around 150% of normal). Guidance for Water Vapor Transport show
this area of high PW is still aimed for the panhandle. Heaviest
rainfall is expected late tonight into early Friday with total
rainfall expected to be around 1 to 3 inches total. Rain rapidly
changes to convective showers post front as cooler air moves in
behind the system. The cooler air aloft above the warmer waters of
the gulf will destabilize the atmosphere enough that many of the
showers could have heavy rain and some may be strong enough to be
thunderstorms. Thus a large area of isolated thunderstorms is in
the forecast for Fri into Fri night for the gulf and outer coast.
Showers will persist into the weekend gradually diminishing in
intensity and frequency. Rain becomes heavy again into Sat night
for the northern gulf coast and gulf as the next front moves in.

Overall guidance was fairly good with few large scale changes
needed. Main change from yesterday was the inclusion of a weaker
triple point low just to the east of the main stronger low early
Friday. This shifted the strong winds of the second wrap farther
east putting it more in line with Yakutat.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday as of 10 pm Wednesday...Deep
long wave trough centered from the Bering Sea southward through
the western Gulf and into the NPAC will dominate the weather over
SE AK through mid next week. This will lead to several chances for
significant precipitation and wind through the period. The first
such system will be lifting into the western Gulf early Saturday
as a 970 mb surface low. The associated front will drift east and
cross the Panhandle through early Monday. Ensemble IVT
probabilities from GEFS show 70-80% probs of IVT greater than 500
kg/m/s over the southern Panhandle late Sunday into early Monday
which correlates well to moderate to heavy rainfall. This system
looks to have an extremely long fetch of moisture stretching all
the way into the western NPAC so there will likely be additional
much needed rainfall to the drought stricken southern Panhandle
with this system. GEFS ensemble average QPF for Metlakatla Monday
through Thursday is around 3 inches which is good news for these
areas.

Strong zonal Pacific jet with a core of around 160kt will
broaden the long wave pattern over the Gulf of Alaska after the
Monday system. This will push the storm track further south next
week with the potential for one or two significant storms in the
SE Gulf while allowing temperatures to cool a bit over the
northern Panhandle with a bit more cyclonic flow aloft. Model
agreement is decent in the long wave pattern but quite poor in
resolving individual systems after Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...The high rain rates expected with the strong front
coming in will cause local rivers and streams to rise with the
greatest rises likely on smaller basins. Some of the smaller
rivers and streams may reach bankfull mid day Fri before the
higher rain rates move out of the area.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from late tonight through Friday afternoon for
     AKZ020-024-026.
     Strong Wind from late tonight through Friday morning for AKZ027.
     Strong Wind from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for
     AKZ025.
     Strong Wind from 10 PM AKDT this evening through Friday
     afternoon for AKZ022.
     Strong Wind from 10 PM AKDT this evening through Friday morning
     for AKZ023.
     Strong Wind from 1 AM AKDT Friday through Friday afternoon for
     AKZ021.
     Strong Wind from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for
     AKZ028.
     Strong Wind Friday afternoon for AKZ018-019.
     High Wind Warning from 7 AM to 4 PM AKDT Friday for AKZ017.
     Strong Wind from 1 AM AKDT Friday through Friday morning for
     AKZ017.
     Strong Wind Friday afternoon for AKZ017.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ022-043-051-052.
     Gale Warning for PKZ012-021-031>036-041-042-053.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013.

&&

EAL/DEL

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