Gale Warning 85, NWS Juneau, AK

065 
FZAK53 PAJK 281256
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
356 AM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-010700-
Yakutat Bay-
356 AM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

315 
FZAK53 PAJK 010030
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
330 PM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-011830-
Yakutat Bay-
330 PM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray late. 
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of Disenchantment Bay.
Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

534 
FZAK53 PAJK 011207
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
307 AM AKST Thu Mar 1 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-020615-
Yakutat Bay-
307 AM AKST Thu Mar 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of Disenchantment
Bay. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt becoming NE. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
626 AM AKST Tue Feb 27 2018

.SHORT TERM...Surface analysis and satellite imagery indicate
storm force low moving into the NW gulf early this morning. This
low will gradually weaken as it tracks across the N gulf today
then SE along the outer coast tonight. Model solutions remain in
good agreement with the synoptic pattern through the period.
Southerly winds have risen to small craft over the N inner
channels with W gales across Cross Sound. Also will see strong
winds for AKZ018 this morning into early this evening. Precip
chances will persist through the day then decrease from N to S
overnight into Wed. Majority of precip will fall as snow, but lots
of rain mixing in through the day should keep accumulations below
advisory amounts. The lowest confidence in accumulations will be
along the Icy Strait corridor and Haines near Mud Bay where
convergence from NW drainage flow and Sly winds in the canal may
enhance precip rates resulting in higher amounts. Will continue
monitoring this potential through the day. Stability indices hint
at potential for lightning as the low and cold pool slide SE along
the outer coast tonight. Given the fairly active lightning with
the last system, decided to include mention of SChc TSMS for
marine areas coincidental with the low and cold pool aloft.
Precip chances diminish through the day Wed as N outflow begins
establishing itself. Main changes to increase winds using NAM and
NamNest as guidance. Overall forecast confidence remains above
average in pattern progression, with a little below average
confidence in snow amounts.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday/ As of 10 pm Monday. Dry,
cold, windy weather pattern for the start of the long range
forecast. Strong northerly pressure gradient between low pressure
over Haida Gwaii and high pressure over the Yukon will produce
outflow and northerly winds in the 35 to 40 kt range over the
inner channels. Due to orientation of the gradient not expecting a
Taku wind event for Juneau. Cold arctic airmass with 850 mb temps
in the -15C range will also move over the panhandle due to the
offshore flow. This along with clear skies and radiational cooling
will produce overnight lows in the teens to possible single
digits for the central and northern regions with lows in the 20s
for coastal and southern areas. As the low and Yukon high weaken
and drift to the southeast winds will diminish and temps will
begin to warm slightly. The 500 mb blocking ridge extending from
the N Pacific into the Arctic will last through Saturday keeping
the panhandle dry. Timing of the ridge breaking down is still
uncertain. GFS/Canadian are starting to fall more in line with
allowing a fast moving short wave to over ride a flattening ridge
and bring in next chance of precip Saturday night into Sunday.
Better agreement the ridge will fully break down to more zonal
flow Monday into Tuesday with a return to more moderate
temperatures and wet weather.

With models remaining in good alignment for the early part of the
forecast used only some NAM to nudge up wind speeds. Due to
uncertainty later in the forecast only made minor adjustments
using GFS to increase PoP to slight chance and began to warm
temperatures. If GFS/Canadian/ECMWF start to fall in line as
indicated by newer runs, later forecast will likely need to increase
PoPs Sunday. Forecast confidence is average early on then drops
by the weekend as the ridge breaks down.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 9 AM AKST this morning through this afternoon
     for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-035-053.

&&

BC/PRB

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