Gale Warning 64, NWS Juneau, AK

274 
FZAK51 PAJK 071249
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast FOR Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
349 AM AKST Wed Feb 7 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 nm

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-080400-
349 AM AKST Wed Feb 7 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A weakening low in the northern gulf will drift south of the
Fairweather ground, dissipating tonight. Strong high pressure 
building over Canada through tonight will once again increase 
outflow winds. 

$$

PKZ011-080400-
Glacier Bay-
349 AM AKST Wed Feb 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Periods of snow and rain in 
the morning. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt in the morning. Seas
5 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt becoming light. Seas 4 ft then 2 ft or
less. 

$$

PKZ012-080400-
Northern Lynn Canal-
349 AM AKST Wed Feb 7 2018

...STORM WARNING THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft. Periods of snow early in the morning. Freezing spray in the
morning. 
.TONIGHT...N wind increasing to 55 kt. Seas 12 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.THU...N storm force wind to 55 kt diminishing to gale to
40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt becoming light. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-080400-
Southern Lynn Canal-
349 AM AKST Wed Feb 7 2018

...STORM WARNING LATE TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
5 ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon. Periods of snow and rain 
early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 45 kt increasing to 55 kt late. Seas 12 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...N storm force wind to 50 kt diminishing to gale to
40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray in the
morning. 
.THU NIGHT...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt becoming light. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-080400-
Icy Strait-
349 AM AKST Wed Feb 7 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Periods of rain and snow in 
the morning. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt east of Sisters Island. 
Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray late.
.THU...NE 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt east of Sisters Island. Seas 4 
ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt becoming light. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-080400-
Cross Sound-
349 AM AKST Wed Feb 7 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Periods of snow and rain in 
the morning. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...NE gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt becoming W. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-080400-
Stephens Passage-
349 AM AKST Wed Feb 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 5 ft. Periods of rain and snow in the morning.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming N 30 kt late. Seas 8 ft.
Freezing spray late. 
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray in the
morning. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-080400-
Northern Chatham Strait-
349 AM AKST Wed Feb 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 5 ft. Periods of rain and snow in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Strongest winds northern area. Seas 9 
ft. Freezing spray late.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Strongest winds northern area. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-080400-
Southern Chatham Strait-
349 AM AKST Wed Feb 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 3 ft, except 5 ft near ocean entrances. Periods of 
rain in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...N wind increasing to 30 kt in the evening. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-080400-
Frederick Sound-
349 AM AKST Wed Feb 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. 
Periods of snow and rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...N wind increasing to 25 kt late. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of interior
passes. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding
to 2 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-080400-
Sumner Strait-
349 AM AKST Wed Feb 7 2018

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Periods of rain in the 
morning. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt becoming W 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-080400-
Clarence Strait-
349 AM AKST Wed Feb 7 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
3 ft. Periods of rain in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt becoming NW 10 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to
2 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
236 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

.SHORT TERM...Weather through the short term period will be
dominated by the interaction between mid/upper troughing in the
northern stream over Canada and ridging in the southern stream
currently positioned over the Panhandle. Weak surface low remains
over the northern Gulf early this afternoon with an occluded front
extending SE along the Gulf coast of the Panhandle. This front
will weaken as it continues to encounter a cold, stable low level
airmass in place over especially the interior panhandle tonight.

Currently many sites across the Panhandle are reporting light
snow, with rain over Prince of Wales Island and the southern
channels near Ketchikan. Based on WV imagery early this
afternoon, some dry air aloft has limited snow growth in the
dendritic zone which has allowed freezing drizzle to occur north
of Frederick Sound. Weak onshore flow and shallow moisture will
continue this evening so expect a mixed bag of snow with areas of
freezing drizzle tonight especially in and around Juneau. Light
icing and snow accumulations are likely and with the very cold
ground temps, transportation impacts are likely. Issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for freezing drizzle for the Juneau area where
the commute will likely be impacted by light icing. A bit
concerned for the Petersburg area later this evening as moisture
becomes shallow here but for now am holding off on winter
headlines.

By early Wednesday, a strong shortwave will dive south out of
Canada and begin to interact with a southern stream shortwave
moving NE out of the central NPAC. Partial phasing of these two
systems will carve out a mid/upper level trough over SE AK
Wednesday.

At the surface, a weak low sill slide south of Dixon Entrance on
Wednesday keeping some chances of precip going over the extreme
southern Panhandle during the day. Temperatures will have warmed
so only expecting rain with this system. To the north, strong and
cold surface high pressure will be building yet again over the
Yukon. Cold advection commences in earnest over the north by
Wednesday afternoon and will peak Wednesday night and early
Thursday. Low level gradients are once again impressive with the
PAGY/PAJN MSLP gradient peaking at 10 to 12 mb Wednesday night.
Storm force northerly winds will develop for Lynn Canal with
gales out of Cross Sound and upper Stephens Passage near Taku
Inlet. As the cold high slides to the the E on Thursday, tight
thermal and pressure gradient along the Klondike will likely lead
to the potential for NE'ly gusts to 60-65 mph at Skagway so have
issued a high wind watch for this potential. Strong winds are also
possible near downtown Juneau/Douglas but mountain wave guidance
is less impressive than with the last system at this time so
limited gusts below high wind criteria. As the northern stream
wave passes across the Salibury Ridge late Wednesday night it may
excite some mountain wave activity but still time for later shifts
to evaluate this potential.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday as of 10 pm Monday/ Long
range starts with upper ridge building over the gulf and interior
AK. Upper shortwave trof will be moving SE out of the area on
Thu. Main adjustment to Thu-Fri was to increase outflow winds
over the northern channels with stronger sfc high over the Yukon.
Models begin to differ on upstream shortwaves moving NE toward the
gulf for the weekend and early next week. They appear strong
enough to at least flatten the upper ridge over the area during
this time. Models were suggesting a slower movement of a front
over the weekend so ended up slowing precip threat into the area
some. Further out, the model differences increase. Ended up using
an 18z/05 GFS and 12z/05 EC blend to handle system departing the
area Thu, then went with mainly WPC after 12z Fri, except for the
adjustment to POPs mentioned above.

Lowered some temps for Thu night and Fri as some colder air moves
in from the N, then basically kept temps as is from the weekend
onward. Does look like some moderation in temps will occur over
the weekend and early next week, but lack of a deep layer S flow
will limit them to only a few degrees above average at most.

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-042-043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ041.

&&

DEL/RWT

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau