Gale Warning 63, NWS Juneau, AK

754 
FZAK51 PAJK 061244
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast FOR Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
344 AM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 nm

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-070345-
344 AM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A weakening low in the northeastern gulf will drift to the 
central gulf Wednesday, then dissipate Wednesday night. Northerly 
wind increasing for the northern inside channels starting 
Wednesday. 

$$

PKZ011-070345-
Glacier Bay-
344 AM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-070345-
Northern Lynn Canal-
344 AM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. 
.WED NIGHT...N gale to 45 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...N gale to 45 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-070345-
Southern Lynn Canal-
344 AM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow in the evening. 
.WED...N wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 5 ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...N gale to 40 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...N gale to 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-070345-
Icy Strait-
344 AM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt diminishing in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. 
Snow. Rain in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers in the evening.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-070345-
Cross Sound-
344 AM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt diminishing in the morning. Seas 7 ft. 
Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow showers in the evening. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell in the morning. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-070345-
Stephens Passage-
344 AM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Snow and rain. 
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-070345-
Northern Chatham Strait-
344 AM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Snow. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow in the evening.
.WED...N wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas building to 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-070345-
Southern Chatham Strait-
344 AM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft. Snow early in the morning. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing in the evening. Seas 3 ft, 
except 6 ft near ocean entrances. 
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 6 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-070345-
Frederick Sound-
344 AM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain in the evening.
Snow.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 55 kt out of interior
passes. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-070345-
Sumner Strait-
344 AM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 35
kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. Snow early in the morning, then 
rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-070345-
Clarence Strait-
344 AM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
Snow early in the morning. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...Light winds becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the morning. 
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt becoming E. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

088 
FZAK51 PAJK 070016
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast FOR Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
316 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 nm

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-071745-
316 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A weakening low in the northeastern gulf will drift to the 
central gulf Wednesday, then dissipate Wednesday night. Strong 
high pressure will build over Canada on Wednesday and Wednesday 
night, increasing outflow winds once again. 

$$

PKZ011-071745-
Glacier Bay-
316 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing
spray. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-071745-
Northern Lynn Canal-
316 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. 
.WED...N wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. 
.WED NIGHT...N storm force wind to 55 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.THU...N storm force wind to 55 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-071745-
Southern Lynn Canal-
316 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow early in the evening. 
.WED...N wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...N gale to 45 kt increasing to storm force wind
to 55 kt late. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...N storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing
spray. 
.THU NIGHT...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-071745-
Icy Strait-
316 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain early in the evening.
Snow in the evening. 
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE gale to 35 kt. Strongest winds east of Sisters
Island. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NE gale to 35 kt. Strongest winds east of Sisters Island. Seas
7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-071745-
Cross Sound-
316 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 9 ft.
Snow in the evening. 
.WED...NE wind increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE gale to 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...NE gale to 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt becoming W 10 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-071745-
Stephens Passage-
316 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain early in the evening.
Snow in the evening. Rain in the evening. 
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming N gale to 35 kt late.
Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of interior
passes. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-071745-
Northern Chatham Strait-
316 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain early in the
evening, then snow in the evening. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-071745-
Southern Chatham Strait-
316 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain early in the evening, then snow in the evening. 
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 7 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt becoming SW. Seas 2 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-071745-
Frederick Sound-
316 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow early in the 
evening, then snow and rain in the evening. 
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of interior
passes. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt becoming SW. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-071745-
Sumner Strait-
316 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow early in the 
evening, then rain in the evening. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt becoming SW 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-071745-
Clarence Strait-
316 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...Light winds becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt becoming E. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt becoming SW. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
239 PM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018

.SHORT TERM...Main focus of the short range is yet another snow
event for the southern panhandle late tonight into tomorrow that
will also bring some snow to the rest of the panhandle as well.
Several things complicating the forecast for this event. First is
the structure of the system. The incoming front started out as a
cold front in the western gulf but will become an occlusion by the
time it reaches the panhandle with a weak low forming along the
triple point in the eastern gulf. North of this weak low the front
will start to shear apart drastically reducing precip amounts for
the northern half of the panhandle. Highest qpf amounts will be
across the southern half of the panhandle.

Second concern is the warm air advection that will be accompanying
this front. The drastically reduced outflow will allow more warm
air to creep northward, however the surface cold air in the inner
channels appears to be strong enough that the rain/snow line will
not get much further north than Kupreanof Island and Baranof
Island. Still this means that Prince of Wales Island and the
southern Inner channels will see the snow change over to rain at
some point during this event. Timing for that appears to be early
to mid morning for western Prince of Wales and mid day around
Clarence Strait at this time. Resulting forecast snow
accumulations look to be around 1 to 3 inches across this area
before precip changes over to rain. These amounts could easily
become higher or lower depending on when change over actually
occurs. Snow accumulations farther north expected to be lighter
(up to 2 inches) due to the weakening front, while Hyder may see
as much as 7 inches due to its location in a colder continental
air mass and the higher QPF that will occur there.

Winds, on the other hand, are not quite as much of a concern as
they have been recently. Northerly outflow has drastically
lessened over the last day or two and will stay low through Tue
night. At this time the highest winds will actually be associated
with the incoming front with gusts to 30 mph expected along the
outer coast and southern panhandle as it moves through. After that
the cold Yukon high rebuilds and northerly outflow is expected to
resume Wed. Gale force winds are expected in Lynn Canal again by
Wed afternoon with gusty winds out of the other outflow areas.

Overall changes were relatively minor mostly consisting of local
effect changes and addition of details. Most notable change was
an increase of winds to gale force for the Lynn Canal area Wed
into Wed night. Guidance favored mainly GFS and some NamNest.

.LONG TERM...With such a dynamic pattern full of poorly modeled
lows affecting portions of the Panhandle, whether winds in the
north or snow/freezing rain in the south, it has been easy to let
the extended range ride as simply a first guess on which to
improve upon later. And given sketchy guidance and false trends,
we think this a wise policy. Tonight however, we did more work
both because we were afforded more time to examine time periods
deep into the week and overall our current weather is mostly more
benign tonight. I.E., the time is now.

Tuesday, as a low pushes into the northwest gulf, a wave looks to
form along its associated front in a pivotal spot: the eastern
gulf south of Baranof Island. While widespread southeast to
easterly 30 kt winds will spread across the gulf ahead of the
front, our outflow pattern in the Panhandle though much weaker
will keep winds northerly and easterly for the most part. More
importantly for snow across the Panhandle, this wave looks to
focus more of the precipitation along the coast and in the south,
rather than the north. Some solutions now have left Juneau high
and dry. We may curtail snow pops across the northern interior
Panhandle for this reason. But rain and snow look to affect the
central and southern Panhandle.

Moving onward, a new wave has been forecast to track northward
around the base of a deep long-wave trough gathering strength from
a baroclinic zone. This wave aim more subtropical moisture towards
the shores of Southeast or BC and more overrunning moisture. But
its track has always been the question. While at one point, we
wondered if it may track across the central Panhandle, later runs
over the past 24 hours, suggest a more southerly and easterly
trend in its track. We have updated with late ECMWF guidance (00Z
Monday) to keep snow accumulations down for Petersburg/Wrangell,
but even Ketchikan may receive very little in the way of rain,
leaving communities to the north dry. However, as this wave moves
north, it should induce another outflow event across much of the
northern and interior Panhandle. We have nudged in that direction,
but we would not be shocked if winds are stronger than currently
forecast. But due to track differences, we do not wish to play
with the forecast other than a general trend. The point is this:
winds will be northerly with the usual gap accelerations out of
Taku Inlet, Lynn Canal, Sumner Strait, and Cross Sound. Gales are
certainly possible.

As the low moves inland into western Canada, weather looks drier
late in the week with a new weather front likely bringing snow
and rain to Southeast Alaska by next weekend as it punctures the
ridge late in the week.

We used EC/NAM for Tuesday through Wednesday night editing with
increasing WPC with the EC from Thursday beyond. Forecast
confidence is average.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ042-043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ041.

&&

EAL/JWA

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Juneau AK
231 PM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018

AKZ027-028-061515-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision Coastal Area-
Southern Inner Channels-
Including the cities of Craig, Klawock, Ketchikan, and Metlakatla
231 PM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018

...MORE SNOW FOLLOWED BY RAIN FOR TUESDAY...

More snow on the way for the Southern panhandle late Monday night
and early Tuesday. Expected snow amounts will range from around 1
to 3 inches for most areas. The new snow is expected to change to
rain mid to late Tuesday morning. The result will make the
existing snow from the last few days and the new snow difficult
to handle and may make some surfaces slippery.