Gale Warning 49, NWS Juneau, AK

159 
FZAK67 PAJK 020044
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
344 PM AKST Thu Feb 1 2018

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-021845-
344 PM AKST Thu Feb 1 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A large area of high pressure remaining over the Yukon will 
funnel cold, northerly outflow through the Inner Channels. An 
upper-level jet streak and its associated front will move 
northward over the southern panhandle tonight, before dissipating.
 

$$

PKZ310-021845-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
344 PM AKST Thu Feb 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. SE swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell. 
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

880 
FZAK67 PAJK 021248
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
348 AM AKST Fri Feb 2 2018

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-030700-
348 AM AKST Fri Feb 2 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A large area of high pressure over the Yukon will funnel cold,
northerly outflow through the inner channels through Saturday. A
weak low will pass over the southern Panhandle this morning.  

$$

PKZ310-030700-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
348 AM AKST Fri Feb 2 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 13 ft. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell. 
.SAT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
307 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

.SHORT TERM... A large area of high pressure has been building
over the Yukon and will result in a tight gradient and cold,
northerly outflow over the northern inner channels. The story for
the short-term will be cold and wet. A series of shortwaves will
make their way northeast through the Gulf, with the first
shortwave on Thursday and its associated front bringing
precipitation into the southern panhandle.

Models were largely in agreement, with the exception of the 12z NAM
lagging behind the other models. 18z NAM came into better
agreement with the other models. Local edits were made to winds
at least through the early weekend with wanting to focus on the
next snow system for the southern panhandle. As the gradient
tightens, winds could reach storm force in Northern Lynn and have
heavy freezing spray.

Most maximum and minimum temperatures were within model spectrums,
however nudged in a decreasing trend due to the cold outflow/
cloud cover. Maximum temperatures near Skagway and Haines were
increased due to the outflow event. Temperatures in the inner
channels seemed a little warm for this time of year. Overall,
there will be a gradual increasing trend in temps toward the end
of the week. Given combination of winds and temps near White Pass,
wind chills to 40 below are likely there, and have issued a winter
weather advisory for zone 18 near White Pass from 06z this evening
through 21z Fri.

As the 18z NAM was just coming in, it was clear that this new run
wanted to push the frontal system farther north. Just how far
north this system will extend is the question. Currently, the
dividing line between snow and rain/snow mixes will be over the
far southern area. A strong band of WAA will push northward with
Thursday's system, mid-level frontogenesis will create enhanced
snow banding, bringing higher snow amounts especially to
Petersburg, Wrangell, Port Alexander, and Hyder. Forecast
confidence is above average for the timing of this event,
although less certainty for the location of the dividing
rain/snow line and snowfall amounts. Issued winter storm watch for
southern zone 23 as well as zones 26 and 29.

.LONG TERM.../Friday night through Tuesday/ As of 10pm Tuesday
implemented a few changes into the extended, that essentially
warmed the southern panhandle into the weekend. Aloft the
operational solutions of the ECMWF and GFS were not to far out of
line with WPC long range guidance, with the operational solutions
differing on timing of a short wave riding over the top of the
ridge in the eastern Gulf of Alaska to the panhandle.

In the lower level the situation is fairly similar despite the
smaller differences of the timing and intensity of the shortwaves
of the mid levels of the atmosphere. Higher pressure over the
Alaska Interior and Northwest Canada will be keeping much of the
precipitation over the southern gulf and southern half of the
panhandle. A low will track northeast into the gulf by Friday and
move to the Prince of Wales area of the panhandle. Later Saturday
the operational solution differ on how the Saturday low and front
tracks to the area. Forecast is partial blend of both but the
Precipitation favors the appearance of the ECMWF more.

With a surface low moving into the eastern gulf, and slight
intensification of the Canadian high pressure, outflow pressure
gradient increasing across the northern panhandle. Look for
strong gales to storm force wind into Saturday in Lynn Canal and
Skagway and potentially Haines will be quite windy/gusty too. Will
have the next set of forecasters review to see if they think
Watch product may be needed.

Cooler temperatures persisting over the northern half of Southeast
Alaska through the weekend, but warmed the southern portion a few
degrees with the persistent cloud cover and warm flow out of the
Pacific. Believe the main impact of the warmer temperatures will
be mainly over Prince of Wales and southern Inner Channels.
Forecast confidence is average with fair agreement between the
newer solutions and the WPC Guidance available from earlier
Tuesday.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Watch from late Thursday night through Friday
     evening for AKZ023-026.
     Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ025.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon AKST
     Friday for AKZ018.
     Strong Wind through late Thursday night for AKZ018.
     Winter Storm Watch from late Thursday night through late Friday
     night for AKZ029.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ031.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ011.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ013.
     Storm Warning for PKZ012.
     Gale Warning for PKZ013-022-031-034-043-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-032-033-035-041-042-052-053.

&&

SS/RWT/Bezenek

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