Gale Warning 47, NWS Juneau, AK

907 
FZAK52 PAJK 311252
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
352 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-010700-
352 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
High pressure over western Canada will remain in place through 
late week, producing strong outflow winds. A weather front will 
approach the southern Gulf from the south on Thursday and Thursday
night. 

$$

PKZ041-010700-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
352 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt becoming S late in the morning. Seas 9 ft. 
SW swell.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell in the morning.
Snow. Rain in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-010700-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
352 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow and rain in the
afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain with snow. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-010700-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
352 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray late. 
.THU...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-010700-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
352 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Strongest winds near interior passes. 
Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Strongest winds near interior passes. 
Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray late.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-010700-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
352 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. SE swell. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

173 
FZAK52 PAJK 010030
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
330 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-011830-
330 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A large area of high pressure over the Yukon will bring in cold,
northerly outflow through the inner channels. A Pacific shortwave
and its associated front will approach the southern panhandle on
Thursday. 

$$

PKZ041-011830-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
330 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell in the morning.
Rain in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-011830-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
330 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-011830-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
330 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray late. 
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...E gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of Cross Sound.
Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-011830-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
330 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray late. 
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray late. 
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt, except 55 kt out of
interior bays and passes. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-011830-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
330 PM AKST Wed Jan 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. SE swell. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. SE swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

239 
FZAK52 PAJK 011250
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
350 AM AKST Thu Feb 1 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-020700-
350 AM AKST Thu Feb 1 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A large area of high pressure over the Yukon will bring in cold,
northerly outflow through the inner channels. A weather front
will move into the southeast Gulf this evening and weaken over
the southern inside waters Friday.  

$$

PKZ041-020700-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
350 AM AKST Thu Feb 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas building to 8 ft. SW 
swell early in the morning. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow. 
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain in the morning, then
rain and snow in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-020700-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
350 AM AKST Thu Feb 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow and rain. 
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 9 ft. Snow and rain. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-020700-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
350 AM AKST Thu Feb 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Higher gusts out of Cross Sound. Seas 9 
ft. Freezing spray early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Higher gusts out of Cross Sound. Seas 10
ft. 
.FRI...NE gale to 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE gale to 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-020700-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
350 AM AKST Thu Feb 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Locally higher winds near interior passes.Seas 9 ft. Freezing 
spray early in the morning.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray late. 
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-020700-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
350 AM AKST Thu Feb 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt diminishing in the morning. Seas 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. S
swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
220 PM AKST Tue Jan 30 2018

.SHORT TERM...As of 130 PM Tuesday, A surface low pressure system
is currently passing over the southern Panhandle. Snow and rain shower
activity remains ongoing as far northwest as southern Admiralty
Island. As the surface low moves east into Canada shower activity
will diminish from northwest to southeast. Localized snow
accumulations are possible where heavier snow showers occur. The
far southern Panhandle may continue to stay under scattered shower
activity through Wednesday night as a weak frontal feature tracks
north over the Southern Panhandle tomorrow. Then on Thursday a
weak short wave trough aloft will track east over the southern
gulf initiating a weak surface low; however, the track of this
system remains uncertain, which could lead to the southern
Panhandle drying out on Thursday, if it stays further south. A
more northern track would bring another round of precipitation
into the southern Panhandle on Thursday.

Some changes were made to the short term forecast. Shower
activity was increased over the southern Panhandle this evening
and pushed further north than originally forecast. Winds
associated with the northerly outflow pattern over the Panhandle
were increased as a whole. Primary guidance was the 12Z GFS with
some input from the NAMnest to handle the outflow winds.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/ Kept the cold trend going.
Models generally are showing a slightly cooler solutions going
into the weekend. Lowers temperatures a few degrees, less so in
the south where temperatures south of Sumner Strait will reach
into the mid to upper 30s by Sunday. Cold Wind Chill temperatures
will continue to be a concern for near White Pass.

The gradient will begin to loosen ever so slightly by Friday, with
the northern Panhandle hoisting a SCA for the the north-south
orientated inside passages. The winds will take a more serious
decline in speed Sunday night into Monday, as the high in the
Yukon moves east. The approaching low in the southwestern gulf
will not be of any concern, for now. Freezing spray will continue
to plague some of the northern inside passages with the stronger
winds.

Snow will start out over the Southern Panhandle up to around the
Elfin Cove-Juneau corridor through the weekend. Snowfall amounts
will be less than impressive, until we get into Friday night when
the southern Panhandle has potential for a few inches. Snow
amounts get a bit tricky with temperatures having a hand at
whether the snow will be wet and heavy or even more rain than
snow. Used the GFS for POP/QPF, with the ECMWF for snow level.
For the south, precipitation type will be a mix mainly becoming
snow overnight, and changing over to rain during the afternoon by
Friday. There are hints of heavier snowfall in the south on the
weekend and even potential for freezing rain, best potential is
the southwestern corner of Prince of Wales. For the north snow
will continue to be the precipitation type into Monday.

Models are still not in good agreement as to whether there will be
a low or a trof that moves across the gulf Thursday night into
Friday. Either way, either feature will enhance the weather across
the Panhandle with increased precipitation in the south and
stronger winds in the north. The GFS continues to be the most
aggressive with the low feature near Dixon Entrance Thursday
night/Friday. It is the only model with upper level support of a
closed low. An ensemble blend to nudge the current forecast was
the best a approach, with no large scale changes needing to be
done.

Forecast confidence is average, with a slight decrease in
confidence in regards to snow amounts in the south Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION...Expect periods of low visibilities associated with
ongoing snow showers spanning from the south central panhandle to
far southern Panhandle. (Near Ketchikan temperatures will be warm
enough to support rain showers this evening.) As the surface low
moves east into Canada shower activity will diminish from
northwest to southeast. However, showers may remain ongoing near
Ketchikan and Klawock airports as a weak frontal feature tracks
north tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...Strong northerly outflow will continue through much of
the week. This will keep strong gale force to storm force winds
present in Lynn Canal. Freezing spray remains a concern as well
due to the cold northerly outflow that remains ongoing.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ018-025.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon AKST Wednesday for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-031.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-032>034-041-043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ042-053.

&&

JB/KV

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