Gale Warning 46, NWS Juneau, AK

669 
FZAK51 PAJK 310036
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast FOR Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
336 PM AKST Tue Jan 30 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 nm

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-311615-
336 PM AKST Tue Jan 30 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A low pressure system over the southern Panhandle will dissipate 
Tue night. High pressure over western Canada will remain in place 
through late week, producing strong outflow winds. 

$$

PKZ011-311615-
Glacier Bay-
336 PM AKST Tue Jan 30 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing
spray. 
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing
spray. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Freezing spray. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-311615-
Northern Lynn Canal-
336 PM AKST Tue Jan 30 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...N wind 45 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...N gale to 45 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.THU...N gale to 40 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.FRI...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-311615-
Southern Lynn Canal-
336 PM AKST Tue Jan 30 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing
spray. 
.WED...N wind 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...N gale to 40 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.THU...N gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing 
spray. 
.THU NIGHT...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-311615-
Icy Strait-
336 PM AKST Tue Jan 30 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-311615-
Cross Sound-
336 PM AKST Tue Jan 30 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-311615-
Stephens Passage-
336 PM AKST Tue Jan 30 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Gusts to 55 kt out of interior passes.
Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...N wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing
spray. 
.WED NIGHT...N gale to 40 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.THU...N gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing
spray. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Freezing spray. 
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-311615-
Northern Chatham Strait-
336 PM AKST Tue Jan 30 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing
spray. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt becoming S. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-311615-
Southern Chatham Strait-
336 PM AKST Tue Jan 30 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 9 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-311615-
Frederick Sound-
336 PM AKST Tue Jan 30 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray
late. 
.THU...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt becoming E. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-311615-
Sumner Strait-
336 PM AKST Tue Jan 30 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean 
entrances. Snow and rain showers early in the evening. 
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt.  Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-311615-
Clarence Strait-
336 PM AKST Tue Jan 30 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming N 20 kt in the evening. Seas 
4 ft. Snow showers early in the evening. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 5 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of interior
passes. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
328 PM AKST Mon Jan 29 2018

.SHORT TERM...As of 3 PM Monday, rain and snow shower activity
remains ongoing over the Panhandle this afternoon. Shower activity
will diminish from north to south this evening. This places the
northern Panhandle within a drier pattern that will continue into
the extended forecast.

The southern Panhandle will remain showery through the middle of
the week due to a low pressure system that is currently west of
Haida Gwaii. This low will track northeast through Tuesday and
pass over the Southern Panhandle Tuesday morning. Showers
associated with the low will be a mix of rain and snow.
Temperatures will be more supportive of rain over southern Prince
of Wales Island and near Ketchikan and Annette Island. Snow
accumulations are expected to be minimal; however, some heavy snow
showers with localized accumulations are possible.

Strong northerly outflow persists over the Panhandle through the
short term with wind gusts up to 40 mph still likely for Downtown
Juneau and Douglas, as well as near Skagway for much of the short
term. Windiest conditions remain in Lynn Canal where the pressure
gradient continues to favor periods of storm force winds.

Significant changes were not made to the short term forecast.
Temperatures were cooled at upper elevations. In addition, local
effects were added to many of the marine and land winds. Used a
blend of the NAM, NAMNest, and GFS to handle updates as needed.
Forecast confidence remains above average.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Sunday/ As of 10pm Sunday
Temperatures remain below freezing until Friday, when the southern
areas warm into the mid 30s during the day. By the weekend
temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s as far north as
Sumner Straits and up to Sitka along the outer coastal area. GFS
was the coldest solution, so used blend approach which resulted a
a small adjustment to lower day time temperatures late in the
week.

The bigger concern is the winds with a tight gradient lingering
over the northern Panhandle, with a trof over the southern area.
For Wednesday Northern Lynn Canal will likely be northerly Gale
force, while most of the other northern inside waters will have
Small Craft winds. Winds diminish slightly by Thursday, but most
of the northern inside waters will remain Small Craft winds into
the weekend diminishing by Sunday. With the low to the south and
high pressure continuing to reside over the Yukon, the northerly
outflow winds will continue all week.

Precipitation, which will fall mostly over the southern half of
the Panhandle on Wednesday. Used the ECMWF for POP/QPF/Snow
elements, as it has been the most consistent of the models.
Precipitation type will be a mix mainly becoming snow overnight,
and changing over to rain during the afternoon by Friday. There
are hints of heavier snowfall in the south on the weekend and even
potential for freezing rain. This will get another close look
with the next go around.

Models are continuing to bring a front across the gulf Thursday
night into Friday. The ECMWF was the main model of choice.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind through late Tuesday night for AKZ025.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon AKST
     Wednesday for AKZ018.
     Strong Wind from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night
     for AKZ018.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ012.
     Gale Warning for PKZ013-022-031-043.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-032>036-041-042-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053.

&&

JB/KV

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