Gale Warning 4, NWS Juneau, AK

634 
FZAK67 PAJK 141212
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
312 AM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-150615-
312 AM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A gale force front in the Eastern gulf will remain mostly 
stationary through Sunday evening. A low will develop along the 
front in the NE Pacific Sunday and move north into the central 
gulf Sunday night. 

$$

PKZ310-150615-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
312 AM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Highest winds eastern half. Seas 21 ft. 
Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt diminishing late. Highest winds eastern
half. Seas 20 ft. Rain in the evening.
.MON...S wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
19 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain in the
evening. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

745 
FZAK67 PAJK 150019
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
319 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-151830-
319 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A low has developed along the front in the NE Pacific and will 
move north into the central gulf Sunday evening, then continue its
northwest track across the gulf through early Monday morning. 
Gale force winds will persist, then diminish from south to north 
Monday morning. 

$$

PKZ310-151830-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
319 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.MON...S wind 35 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
19 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.TUE...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

622 
FZAK67 PAJK 151226
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
326 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-160630-
326 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A weakening gale force low over the central gulf continues to
track northwest through early Monday morning. A second gale
force low will move in the AK gulf from the N Pacific Monday
night into Tuesday. 

$$

PKZ310-160630-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
326 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the morning, then
becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft. Rain in the
afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 35 kt in the evening. Seas 17 
ft. Rain in the evening.
.TUE...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...S gale to 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt late. Seas
18 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...Wind variable less than 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

365 
FZAK67 PAJK 160036
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
336 PM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-161845-
336 PM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A gale force low will enter the south central gulf Monday night
and track northwest to Kodiak through Wednesday morning. A
second gale force low will approach the far southeastern gulf on
Wednesday and then weaken on Thursday.  

$$

PKZ310-161845-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
336 PM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming SE 40 kt in the evening.
Strongest winds southern half. Seas 16 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.TUE...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S gale to 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt late. Seas
16 ft. 
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...Wind variable less than 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

523 
FZAK67 PAJK 161235
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
335 AM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-170645-
335 AM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A gale force low over central gulf continues to track northwest
to Kodiak through Wednesday morning. A second gale force low
will approach the far southeastern gulf Wednesday afternoon and
then weaken on Thursday. 

$$

PKZ310-170645-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
335 AM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain showers in the
afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt late. Seas 19 ft. 
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

815 
FZAK67 PAJK 162348
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
248 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-171800-
248 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A gale force low near Kodiak will continue to move northwest and
weaken. A second gale force low will approach Haida Gwaii from
the southwest on Wednesday, stall over water, and then weaken
through Friday.  

$$

PKZ310-171800-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
248 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt late. Strongest winds
northern area. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers early in the evening. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the morning. Strongest
winds southern area. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. S swell. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. S swell shifting to
the SE late. 
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

931 
FZAK67 PAJK 171255
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
355 AM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-180700-
355 AM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A gale force low will track northeastward along the outer coast
late today, before stalling and weakening on Friday. A secondary 
low will begin tracking through the western Gulf late Friday into 
Saturday. 

$$

PKZ310-180700-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
355 AM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Strongest
winds southern areas. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. SE swell. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. SE swell shifting to
the S late. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

102 
FZAK67 PAJK 180043
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
343 PM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-181845-
343 PM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A gale force low will track northward to around Haida Gwaii
through Friday but weaken as it nears Southeast Alaska. High
pressure will persist over NW Canada.     

$$

PKZ310-181845-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
343 PM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. SE swell late. 
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. SE swell. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. SE swell shifting to
the S late. 
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. W swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. W swell. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
530 AM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

.SHORT TERM.../Through Sun night/ Very active short term period
this morning. The remains of the front that went through the
panhandle last night is on its way out. Southerly flow through the
inner channels was not as strong as anticipated with several areas
in the northern inner channels retaining a N wind overnight. The
result is cooler temperatures for many areas this morning and a
delay on when precip changed over from snow to rain. Speaking of
snow, accumulations from last night have mainly been collected
from the Juneau area so far, which received around 5 to 6 inches
overnight.

Brief break today from the precip and winds as we end up between
two fronts. It will not last long as the next front comes roaring
in from the south this afternoon. Initial precip bands and winds
associated with the warm frontal part of the system bringing in
very strong warm air advection. High temps Sunday easily expected
to be in the 40s with some southern locations possibly approaching
50. Trailing cold front dangles due south from Cape Fairweather
after the initial warm front moves through and makes very little
east/west progress as it wobbles through the gulf due to various
shore waves that form along it. Short range models have been
having trouble representing these short waves, particularly one on
Sun.

With the strong warm air advection, many areas expected to be warm
enough for rain by this afternoon. The Haines Road (due to cold
air damming) and Klondike Highway (due to high elevation) will be
the exceptions. A winter weather advisory for a wintry mix has
been issued for the Haines Road this afternoon as the warm air
overrunning the cold air dammed in the Chilkat Valley will likely
be strong enough to produce a mix of snow, rain, freezing rain,
and/or sleet before temperatures warm enough to make the precip
all rain. The Klondike Highway has a winter storm warning for
White Pass tonight for snow accumulation of 5 to 8 inches.

The nearly stationary cold front will continue to funnel rain
northward in the wake of the warm front. Integrated water vapor
transport forecasts are rather high with the bulk of the rain
aimed at the northern panhandle and NE gulf coast. QPF forecasts
are high but some uncertainly exists particularly in the northern
inner channels. This rain along with the warm temperatures
melting snow could cause some river to rise over the next few days
but no flooding is expected. Inner channels may dry out a little
toward Sun night as a developing wave along the front pulls the
front west.

Winds are also a factor, but the bulk of the winds will be out in
the gulf. Gale and even storm force winds expected throughout the
next 48 hours out there. Lower winds expected for the panhandle,
but there still will be enough for small craft advisories for many
inner channels as well as gusts to 40 mph for the eastern gulf
coast tonight and Sunday.

Short range models in fair agreement for the first 24 hours then
diverge with handling a developing wave along the front on Sun
night. ECMWF and Nam main guidance used for updates.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Friday/ The early part of the long-
term period will start off as warm and wet, before transitioning
to a warmer, drier pattern during mid-week. As a strong
atmospheric river wraps up, there is consensus for a low tracking
northward through the Gulf late Sunday into Monday. This
undercutting low will lead to offshore flow and help to dry out
the panhandle.

Additionally, most of the long-term focus yesterday evening was
shifted to the short-term due to an active frontal passage and
ongoing snow/ precipitation issues. As a result, no major changes
were made and models still give a general idea of this next
system.

The weakening of the ridge over western Canada during the early
part of the period will allow for temperatures to remain above
average and decrease through the extended period as intermittent
amounts of shortwave energy are injected into the overall pattern.
This will bring persistent rounds of heavy precipitation across
the panhandle and gusty winds later into the week. Winds over the
inner channels will remain relatively light during the early part
of the period due to the parallel pressure gradient.

POP and QPF were blended with the NAM and EC to better show the
clearing precipitation to the west of Yakutat. Temperatures were
increased Sunday into Monday to reflect the occurrence of warm air
advection, but minimal adjustments throughout the week and
remain within guidance.

Model spread increases gradually later on in the period, but with
some evidence of another low pressure system tracking from the
eastern Aleutians through the Gulf into Thursday. However, confidence
remains moderate for the timing of the next low into Monday.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from noon AKST today through late tonight for AKZ027.
     Strong Wind from 3 PM AKST this afternoon through late tonight
     for AKZ023.
     Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 4 PM AKST this
     afternoon for AKZ019.
     Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 5 AM AKST
     Sunday for AKZ018.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ052.
     Gale Warning for PKZ022-036-041>043-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-031>035.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053.

&&

EAL/SS

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
133 PM AKST SAT JAN 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     SNOW             13 N KETCHIKAN          55.53N 131.65W
01/12/2018  M1.4 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

1112 AM     SNOW             3 S PETERSBURG          56.73N 132.86W
01/13/2018  M2.7 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            FRIDAY JANUARY 12, 2018 24 HOUR SNOWFALL OF 2.7 INCHES
            WITH WATER EQUIVALENT OF 0.20 INCHES.

1158 AM     SNOW             DOUGLAS                 58.27N 134.40W
01/13/2018  E4.5 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            SNOWFALL WAS 4.5 INCHES FRIDAY JANUARY 12, 2018 THROUGH
            10 AM SATURDAY JANUARY 13, 2018.

1158 AM     SNOW             12 NNE JUNEAU           58.55N 134.01W
01/13/2018  M5.7 INCH                           AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            JUNEAU WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE SNOWFALL FRIDAY JANUARY
            12, 2018 THROUGH 1100 AM SATURDAY JANUARY 13, 2018 WAS
            5.7 INCHES.

1158 AM     SNOW             10 N JUNEAU             58.53N 134.13W
01/13/2018  M4.8 INCH                           AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            JUNEAU AIRPORT MEASURED 4.8 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ON FRIDAY
            JANUARY 12, 2018.

1158 AM     SNOW             2 W JUNEAU              58.39N 134.19W
01/13/2018  E3.4 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            WEST JUNEAU 3.4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL STORM TOTAL FROM
            FRIDAY JANUARY 12, 2018 THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY JANUARY 13,
            2018.

&&

BMARTIN