Gale Warning 39, NWS Juneau, AK

486 
FZAK52 PAJK 261339
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
439 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-270300-
439 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A low pressure trough will remain over the eastern gulf through 
Fri night. A small low pressure area over the eastern gulf will 
move NW to the north central gulf by Fri evening. High pressure 
will build slowly over NW Canada through Sat night. 

$$

PKZ041-270300-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
439 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
11 ft. Rain showers early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. W swell. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. W swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 23 ft
subsiding to 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-270300-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
439 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming SW 15 kt by afternoon. Seas 13 ft
subsiding to 9 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers early in the 
morning. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. W swell. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. W swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-270300-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
439 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 ft subsiding to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow showers
in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. W swell in the morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.MON...NE gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 16 ft
subsiding to 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-270300-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
439 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 14 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-270300-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
439 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 40 kt by late morning, then 
becoming S 20 kt late in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers 
early in the morning.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming E late. Seas 7 ft. SE swell in
the evening. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt. Seas 7 ft building to
14 ft. 
.MON...E wind 30 kt becoming NE 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

930 
FZAK52 PAJK 270023
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
323 PM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-271830-
323 PM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A low pressure trough will remain over the eastern  gulf through
Fri night. A small low pressure area over the eastern gulf will
move NW to the north central gulf by Fri evening. High  pressure
will build slowly over NW Canada through Sat night. 

$$

PKZ041-271830-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
323 PM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 9 ft. W swell. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt late.
Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...E gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 23 ft
subsiding to 12 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-271830-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
323 PM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming E. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. W swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas
6 ft. 
.SUN...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 10 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft subsiding to 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-271830-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
323 PM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. W swell in the morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas
6 ft. 
.SUN...E gale to 40 kt. Gusts to 60 kt out of Cross Sound. Seas 
13 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E gale to 40 kt. Gusts to 60 kt out of Cross Sound. 
Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 16 ft
subsiding to 11 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-271830-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
323 PM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers early
in the evening. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NE gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 14 ft.
Freezing spray. 
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-271830-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
323 PM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming E late. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.MON...E wind 30 kt becoming NE 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
251 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2018

.SHORT TERM.../ Thu night to Saturday night / The quasi stationary
trough of lower pressure extending from near Prince William Sound
to west of Haida Gwaii persists with a low near Prince William
sound and a second west of Haida Gwaii. The southern of the lows
will be moving northwest along the trough through Friday afternoon
as it moves past Middleton Island. The trough will be weakening
or more correctly will be absorbed into the low forming over the
western gulf Friday and Friday night by a short wave moving into
the western gulf. High pressure over NW Canada and northern
Alaska will be increasing as the high strengthens.

Strong winds will continue over the northern Lynn Canal region and
mainly in Skagway area with winds reacting to the strong pressure
gradient over White Pass. Sustained winds 25 to 30 mph in Skagway
with gusts of 40 to 50 mph (or slightly) higher are expected into
Saturday night. Through Saturday and Saturday evening, the high
pressure is building more into northern British Columbia, this
combined with a trough moving northward over the southern
panhandle will be increasing the cross barrier easterly flow
especially in the Juneau area. We will be on the watch for the
potential start of a Taku mountain wave wind event later Saturday.

Precipitation-wise a collection of impulses will be moving
Northwest along the trough and spreading some light precipitation
into the southern panhandle and this will slowly work its way
northward to Glacier Bay and Juneau area by early Saturday. During
Saturday over the northeast pacific another low will be
developing and lifting northeast toward the southern panhandle and
British Columbia coast and this will be the next more significant
weather maker for Southeast Alaska.

.LONG TERM...As has been the case most of this winter, anomalous
high latitude blocking regime will be driving the weather pattern
over much of the state through the long term. Highly amplified
ridging over the Bering Sea at the start of the period will
begin to morph into an omega block by late in the weekend.
Subsequent downstream deep trough and associated closed mid/upper
low will continue to dig well south through the western Gulf and
into the NPAC by Saturday before a significant piece of this
energy ejects NE'ward into the SE Gulf by late Sunday and early
Monday.

At the surface, a very cold airmass will continue over the Gulf
underneath the upper trough on Saturday while cold continental
high pressure begins to build over NW Canada. This will set the
stage for continued outflow over the Panhandle through the weekend
with the potential for a more significant precipitation event
sometime late Sunday into Monday. The weekend should be mostly dry
with clearing skies likely by late Saturday especially over the
north. Initial pressure gradient will be more NE'ly so expect
places such as Cross Sound and Skagway to be windier than might be
expected for the strength of the gradient. As the surface high
builds over NW Canada and surface low pressure begins to approach
the SE Gulf on Sunday, expect the northerly gradient to increase
substantially with strong N'ly outflow likely to develop. It will
be quite cold, especially over the north where 925 mb temps bottom
out around -18C by Sunday.

Ensembles and operational models all indicate a significant
shortwave will eject out of the main upper trough towards SE AK on
Sunday night. This could set up potentially a significant
overrunning precip event early next week. Models differ in the
timing and strength of the system but all indicate precipitation
beginning over at least the southern Panhandle by late Sunday
evening. Thicknesses would support snow even for the south.
Differences increase in regards to the eventual northward extent
of precip at this time so kept highest chances south of Frederick
Sound for now. For the remainder of the forecast period, major
differences begin to develop in regards to the interaction of a
strengthening Pacific jet over the NPAC and the next piece of
strong arctic energy diving south around the blocking high. Leaned
towards WPC guidance for Monday through Thursday for this reason.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind through Saturday afternoon for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-022-031-034-041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-032-033-035-036.

&&

Bezenek/DEL

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