Gale Warning 330, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
Issued by National Weather Service Anchorage AK
320 PM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

.SHORT TERM...After the low from the southern panhandle completed
its movement into British Columbia this morning it lead to the
clearing of some of the skies and ending of the showers in the
northern panhandle. A few lingering showers impacted the coast
through the afternoon. A line of more organized showers has been
moving east across the eastern gulf, slightly quicker on the south
side and these showers are reaching western Prince of Wales
Island late this afternoon and evening. The northern end of the
band will move onto Baranof and Chichigof Island overnight. Behind
this line of showers is a colder pool aloft with a mass of
stratus under the need the ridge over the central gulf. Think the
main focus of the colder air will slide to the south of the
forecast area.

Beginning to move into the western gulf is a frontal band
associated with a complex surface pattern over the Bering Sea. The
first part of this frontal features will move into the northeast
gulf coast Sunday. The next wave will bring a more organized
feature into the northeast gulf coast and northern panhandle late
Sunday and into early Monday morning. This will be first of the
large moisture streams that get aimed towards Southeast Alaska.

This Monday wave will bring Gale force winds to the outer coast
marine zones Sunday night and into early Monday. Also due to the
source region for the moisture we are expecting some with a good
push of warm air at 850 bringing the 0C line just south of
Yakutat, and this warmer air will be pushed into the panhandle.
Precipitation may start out as snow in the northern panhandle and
a few inches of snow could accumulate depending on the location
before it mixes with or changes to rain.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Saturday night/ A relatively active
and warm pattern persists through the first half of the long
range as a broad upper trough sits over the Bering Sea through mid
next week. There are indications that the panhandle may cool down
again late next week as some of the cool air from the Bering Sea
trough slides farther east.

Overall the main focus is the warmer and wet weather expected at
the beginning of the week. The first wave of moisture is expected
to go through Sun night but another wave is behind it for Mon
night that is nearly as wet as the first. Snow levels expected to
remain high as warm air continues to be pushed into the area so
many locations will stay rain through the second push. This
combined with melting snow may cause some river rises for the
first half of the week.

Forecast confidence starts to go downhill into late week as some
cooler air tries to work into the area from the west. Some short
waves may be embedded in the flow as well but timing and track of
each display a wide spread between models. Generally stuck with
WPC guidance for updates.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Small Craft Advisory due to Seas until 3 PM AKST this afternoon
     for AKZ017.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ022.

&&

Bezenek/EAL

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau