Gale Warning 285, NWS Juneau, AK

398 
FZAK53 PAJK 080036
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
336 PM AKST Fri Dec 7 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-081845-
Yakutat Bay-
336 PM AKST Fri Dec 7 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming E 35 kt late. Seas 17 ft,
except 5 ft E side of the bay. SW Swell. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 16 ft, except 5 ft
E side of the bay. SW swell. Showers.
.SAT NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft, except 5 ft E side
of the bay. Rain in the evening, then showers late. 
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft, except 4 ft E
side of the bay. SW swell. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft, except 3 ft E side of
the bay. SW swell. Rain.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

348 
FZAK53 PAJK 080204 AAA
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
504 PM AKST Fri Dec 7 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-081500-
Yakutat Bay-
504 PM AKST Fri Dec 7 2018

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming SE 40 kt late. Gusts to 
55 kt late. Seas 13 ft building to 18 ft late. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 16 ft, except 5 ft
E side of the bay. SW swell. Showers.
.SAT NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft, except 5 ft E side
of the bay. Rain in the evening, then showers late. 
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft, except 4 ft E
side of the bay. SW swell. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft, except 3 ft E side of
the bay. SW swell. Rain.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

569 
FZAK53 PAJK 081201
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
301 AM AKST Sat Dec 8 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-090615-
Yakutat Bay-
301 AM AKST Sat Dec 8 2018

...GALE WARNING EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt becoming E 30 kt. Seas 20 ft, except 7 ft
E side of the bay. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft, except 6 ft E side of the
bay. Rain. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft. East side of the bay, seas 3 ft in the morning then 2 ft
or less. SW swell. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft, except
4 ft E side of the bay. Rain.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt becoming SW. Seas 21 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 22 ft subsiding to 15 ft. 

$$

716 
FZAK53 PAJK 090027
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
327 PM AKST Sat Dec 8 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-091830-
Yakutat Bay-
327 PM AKST Sat Dec 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt in the evening, then diminishing to 20 kt
late. Seas 15 ft, except 5 ft E side of the bay. Rain in the 
evening, then showers late. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft, except 2 ft or less E side
of the bay. SW swell. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft, except 4 ft E side of
the bay. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 12 ft, except 6 ft
E side of the bay. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of
Disenchantment Bay. Seas 16 ft, except 5 ft E side of the bay.
Rain.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt becoming SW. Seas 21 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 22 ft subsiding to 15 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

958 
FZAK53 PAJK 091213
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
313 AM AKST Sun Dec 9 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-100615-
Yakutat Bay-
313 AM AKST Sun Dec 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to
35 kt early in the morning, Seas 13 ft subsiding to 9 ft in the 
afternoon. East side of the bay, seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming E 20 kt late. Gusts to 35 kt 
late. Seas 10 ft, except 4 ft E side of the bay. SW swell. Rain.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft, except 5 ft E side of the
bay. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft, except
4 ft E side of the bay. SW swell. Rain showers. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 15 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding to 10 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
247 PM AKST Thu Dec 6 2018

.SYNOPSIS...The shift into a wet, windy, and active, but still
seasonably warm weather pattern will occur over the next day. This
new weather regime will persist through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A return to an active weather pattern will occur
over the next 24 hours. Current satellite imagery shows a surface
low pressure system just south of Kodiak, as well as a large area
of energy over the northern Pacific. This energy will organize
into a surface low pressure system over the next day and push
northward across the gulf of Alaska. A band of storm force winds
will accompany this low as it tracks north over the gulf.
Additionally, seas will build to 20 to 30 feet over the vast
majority of the gulf by Friday night. For land areas and the inner
channels, expect the strongest winds to be along the outer coast
as the low tracks north and for the East-West orientated channels
specifically Sumner Strait and Cross Sound. While some strong
gusts are possible out of the system along the coast, high winds
are not expected due to low level atmospheric stability acting to
keep the strongest low level jet winds from mixing down to the
surface. That being said, if the low takes on a slightly more
easterly track, Yakutat could see a very brief southerly high
wind on the back side of the system early Saturday morning. As far
as precipitation impacts, the biggest area of concern will be the
Haines and Klondike Highways where precipitation looks to fall as
snow, but with the front significantly weakening by the time it
reaches these locations, significant accumulations are not
expected.

This active pattern continues into Saturday as another strong low
pressure system tracks north over the gulf. While the surface low
center takes a more westerly track than the Friday system, strong
gale and some storm force winds are expected again over the
eastern gulf waters. Precipitation will be more impactful out of
this storm as well, with periods of heavy rain expected for much
of the Panhandle Saturday. Along the Haines and Klondike Highways
some significant snowfall is possible; however, with lower
confidence in the ultimate timing and track of this storm, no
watches are currently in effect.

Overall little to no changes were made regarding the Friday low.
The intensity of Saturday's low was increased to bring strong
gales and some storm force winds into the forecast; however,
confidence is lower for Saturday's storm as a fair amount of
spread still exists. The 12 GFS was favored to adjust Saturday as
needed; however, this portion of the forecast could still see some
refining by future shifts.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Wednesday/Upper trough will be
deepening and taking on a negative tilt over the Gulf by Saturday.
Low level frontal zone will remain draped over the Panhandle or
perhaps just offshore in the eastern Gulf into Sunday. Models are
struggling greatly with timing and strength of individual pieces
of energy ejecting out of the base of the trough towards SE AK on
Saturday into Sunday. Diffluent upper jet will provide ample upper
support to tighten the low level front late Saturday into Sunday,
as evidenced by the presence of 70-80kt at 850 mb in many of the
models along the frontal zone. This could lead to strong gales or
storm conditions over the eastern Gulf with the potential for high
wind gusts for parts of the coastal and southern Panhandle at some
point late in the weekend. Still too much uncertainty to pin down
strength and location, so later shifts will need to monitor.

Heavy precipitation will likely occur as well Saturday into Sunday,
again dependent on the exact track and strength of any surface
waves. Thermal profiles along the Haines and Klondike highways
initially will support snow, with the potential for enough warming
to change the Haines road over to rain by Saturday night. Should
the precipitation remain all snow, significant accumulations will
be possible for the higher elevations of the highways through
Sunday. Elsewhere, only rain is expected near sea level.

For early to mid next week, most ensemble guidance continues to
call for a very strong and active zonal Pacific jet to develop and
nose into the western Gulf. This will set the stage for yet
another significant storm to enter the Gulf by late
Monday/Tuesday, bringing another round of heavy precipitation and
strong winds. Temperatures begin to cool by mid week as modified
arctic air begins to drawn into the Gulf from the Bering Sea,
however no significant snowfall near sea level is expected through
mid week at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...Biggest aviation concern will be the threat of
significant low level wind shear beginning late tomorrow morning
for the southern Panhandle and tracking north with the low through
the day evening and overnight hours. A significant low level jet
will develop northeast of the of the low center with around 50 to
60 kts of wind around 2000 ft. sliding northward along the
coastline.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-041-042.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053.

&&

JB/DEL

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