Gale Warning 28, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
318 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...Still a bit early to break out your flip flops, but
unseasonably warm weather has moved over the Panhandle. Many new record
high minimum temperatures will be set, along with some record high
temperatures. Annette Island reported 65 degrees this afternoon.
Temperatures are still on the increase in some areas, especially
those that will see an increase in the winds this evening. Monday
will start to see a more normal diurnal temperature curve,
temperatures will remain mild.

With the warm temperatures the precipitation type has changed
over to all rain, with the exception of the far reaches of the
Klondike Highway. Up to an inch of snow is possible overnight at
White Pass. Heavy rain is falling in the Yakutat area this evening
and will slowly diminish overnight. There will be a drying trend
over the south and western areas of the Panhandle south of Juneau
through Monday.

Winds received a need massage by the NAM and GFS bringing in
strong winds to more areas around SE, to now include; along the
outer coastal area zones, southern Prince of Wales Island and the
Chichagof Island area. There will be a slight diminishing trend
this evening with the winds, but they will increase again before
the gradient fully relaxes Monday.

Models for today and Monday are in good agreement, with each
having its strengths that it added to the updates to the forecast.
Focus was changes to the winds to capture the important nuances
that will happen over the next 12 to 18 hours. The NAM was to cool
for temperatures and the EC was too warm, the GFS showed a good
middle ground. Had to adjust due to poor initialization this
morning.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday as of 10 pm Saturday/ Upper
pattern will become more progressive during midweek and this
could last into the weekend...although models differ on this by
late in the period. Upper ridge to the E of the area will weaken
and shift E while an upper trof moves across the EPAC and gulf of
AK during late week. Over the weekend...it becomes increasingly
difficult to tell what will occur given the model differences that
show up...but in general looks like most system energy could stay
S or W of the area during this time. The main adjustment made to
the longer range pressures was to maintain a low to the S of the
area longer than previous forecast had it during late week. Used
latest WPC to handle that adjustment.

Did make some temp tweaks early in the period based on model
consensus...mostly warming things some for Tue-Wed time frame. It
should be fairly mild at start of longer range...but there may be
a bit of a cool down during late week as upper trof moves in...so
left in the cooler temps for then.

May need to bump POPS up for Tue into Tue night as models seem to
agree on a weakening front moving across the area. Later on, the
model differences get rather large so keeping in a middle ground
POP looked reasonable right now...with generally best threat over
the S near that low to the S of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...A strong low level jet along the front will continue to cause
turbulence and LLWS for most locations over the next 24hrs. A peak
will occur this evening between 3-12z with winds of 50-65kt along
the outer coast and 35-50kt over the inner channels between 15-
25 kt. There will be some improvement early Monday, however
another system will likely bring LLWS back into the southern TAFs
Monday night into Tuesday. The only location with restrictions to
CIG/VIS has been PAYA today with moderate rain. Expect conditions
to fall to MVFR with rain for other locations as the front moves
inland this evening, but majority will have VFR prevailing.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ027.
     Strong Wind from 6 PM AKST this evening through late tonight for
     AKZ021-022.
     Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ023.
     Strong Wind from 6 PM this evening to midnight AKST tonight for
     AKZ028.
     Strong Wind from 9 PM AKST this evening through Monday morning
     for AKZ017.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-031>036-053.

&&

KV/RWT

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