Gale Warning 237, NWS Juneau, AK

415 
FZAK67 PAJK 240013
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
313 PM AKST Fri Nov 23 2018

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-241815-
313 PM AKST Fri Nov 23 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A weak ridge of high pressure will build over the eastern Gulf 
Friday night. On Saturday a 967 MB storm force low will move out 
of the S through the offshore waters to Middleton Island by 
Saturday evening. 

$$

PKZ310-241815-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
313 PM AKST Fri Nov 23 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...Winds light increasing to SE 15 kt in the evening,
then increasing to 35 kt late. Seas 6 ft or less then 10 ft. SW
swell early in the evening. Rain late. 
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SE gale to 40 kt late.
Seas 17 ft. Rain late. 
.SUN...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt becoming S 25 kt late. Seas
20 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...Wind variable less than 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

573 
FZAK67 PAJK 241239
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
339 AM AKST Sat Nov 24 2018

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-250645-
339 AM AKST Sat Nov 24 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 980 MB storm force low will move out of the S and deepen to 972
MB near Middleton Island by Saturday evening. Expect a series of 
very strong fronts to move up to the eastern Gulf coast today 
though Sun night. 

$$

PKZ310-250645-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
339 AM AKST Sat Nov 24 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt becoming S 45 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 
17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 40 kt late. Seas 17 ft. Rain
late. 
.SUN...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE gale to 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt late. Seas
20 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...Wind variable less than 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

148 
FZAK67 PAJK 250008
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
308 PM AKST Sat Nov 24 2018

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-251815-
308 PM AKST Sat Nov 24 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A storm force low in the central Gulf tracks N toward Middleton
Island by Saturday evening. A second very strong front will move
up to the eastern Gulf coast Sunday though Sunday night. 

$$

PKZ310-251815-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
308 PM AKST Sat Nov 24 2018

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain. 
.SUN...SE wind increasing to 50 kt then diminishing in the
afternoon. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE gale to 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt late. Seas
20 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. SW swell. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...Wind variable less than 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...Wind variable less than 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
254 PM AKST Thu Nov 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...The primary forecast issues are how far north
showers will extend Thursday night, and how long they will linger
across the southern panhandle into Friday morning. Also,
determining the forecast track of a low pressure system into the
Gulf Saturday with possible storm force winds.

As of Thursday afternoon, an elongated area of low pressure in the
SE Gulf is continuing to produce showers across most of the
panhandle extending into the Icy Strait corridor. Some heavier
banding of showers is also skirting along the southern and central
outer coast. Aloft, an upper trough extends SE across the Gulf
into the NE Pacific with a backside jet directed towards the NW
States. Mid-level rotation over the southcentral Gulf Thursday
evening will continue to dive towards Vancouver through early
Friday. Northern area should begin to see the drying trend
occurring tonight as the low level flow transitions to offshore
and the northerly gradient sets up. Shower activity is expected
to gradually diminish and pull away through Friday morning as all
the energy moves into southern BC. The latest (18z) NAM came into
better agreement with other models which increased confidence in
rain ending sooner this evening across the northern areas. Where
the rain is ending, expect fog to develop overnight and in some
areas freezing fog may also occur as temperatures cool to below
freezing early Friday morning. More likely across the northern
panhandle since are expecting clouds to linger across the central
and southern areas as remaining vort drifts across. Upper ridge
quickly moves across the Gulf and Panhandle Friday through
Saturday morning when skies will briefly see some clearing from NW
to SE. Less clouds and light winds Friday night will allow for
temperatures to drop to below freezing for much of the interior of
the panhandle.

The next low pressure system is expected to approach the southern
Gulf Saturday morning. Model guidance still differs to the exact
location of the low but generally expects it to move N across the
western (ECMWF) or central (GFS) Gulf, lifting an associated gale
force front with possible storm force barrier jet in the northern
Gulf. We do expect rain, and possibly snow in higher elevations
including the highways, to return Saturday, more likely after
noon. Forecast confidence is average.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday/ Warm wet pattern remains
dominate through the long range as a broad deep upper trough
remains planted over the Bering Sea and the Eastern Aleutians.
The result is SW flow over most of the area with a series of
fronts effecting the panhandle through the period.

Overall forecast confidence is better then yesterday with a
better grouping from guidance on the system on Sat building that
confidence. Timing is still an issue but most models are
suggesting a track through the central gulf for the triple point
low that forms on the front in the NE Pacific (used mainly gfs and
0z ECMWF for guidance). As for the changes, overall timing of the
low and associated front was slowed compared to the previous
forecast by around 6 to 9 hours given the significant slower trend
in timing from all guidance compared to our previous forecast.
Frontal precip now does not get to the panhandle until late Sat
afternoon into Sat evening. Winds were also increased along the
front with gale force winds now blanketing a good portion of the
gulf Sat into Sun. Some of that even gets to the outer coast and
southern panhandle on Sun and Sun Evening with some gusty winds
(possibly up to 40 to 50 mph gusts) there.

As for ptype, we are still looking at mostly rain for many areas
of the panhandle with the dominate southerly flow. Haines and
Klondike Highway areas will likely stay cold enough for some snow
accumulations but that will mainly be Sat into Sun before the
lower elevations change to rain.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-041>043.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ051.

&&

DDH/Fritsch

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