Gale Warning 166, NWS Juneau, AK

702 
FZAK52 PAJK 211208
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
408 AM AKDT Mon May 21 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-220200-
408 AM AKDT Mon May 21 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force front over the eastern gulf will move slowly E 
across SE AK Mon afternoon and Mon night. A gale force low will 
slowly weaken over the western gulf through Tue night. 

$$

PKZ041-220200-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
408 AM AKDT Mon May 21 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-220200-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
408 AM AKDT Mon May 21 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. Rain in the
evening, then showers late.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. Showers in the
morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-220200-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
408 AM AKDT Mon May 21 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. Showers.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. Showers in the
morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-220200-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
408 AM AKDT Mon May 21 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. Showers.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. Showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. S swell. Rain.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-220200-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
408 AM AKDT Mon May 21 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain in the evening, then
showers late. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. S swell. Showers.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell. Rain.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

561 
FZAK52 PAJK 212328
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
328 PM AKDT Mon May 21 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-221730-
328 PM AKDT Mon May 21 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A strong front moving across SE AK will weaken early Mon evening.
The low over the central AK gulf will weaken through Tue evening.
A second wave will move over Dixon Entrance Tue into Wed.

$$

PKZ041-221730-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
328 PM AKDT Mon May 21 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing in the evening. Seas 11 ft. 
Rain in the evening.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. W swell. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. W swell. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-221730-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
328 PM AKDT Mon May 21 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. W swell. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. W swell. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-221730-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
328 PM AKDT Mon May 21 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. Rain early in the
evening, then showers. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. Showers in the
morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-221730-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
328 PM AKDT Mon May 21 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. Rain early in the 
evening, then showers. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. Showers in the
morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-221730-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
328 PM AKDT Mon May 21 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain in the evening, then
showers late. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. S swell. Showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
307 PM AKDT Sun May 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...According to current water vapor satellite imagery,
a weakening shortwave can be seen exiting the northeast gulf and
through portions of the northern panhandle of Southeast Alaska.
Most locations are now reporting accumulating precipitation across
the area, and the wind has picked up for a few areas as the weak
front associated with this shortwave exits east through the
panhandle. In addition, our next feature, in the form of a
stronger shortwave, can be seen on satellite. It has begun to lift
northeast as well, where it will eventually cross into the
eastern gulf. This shortwave will be supported by an 85 kt jet
streak aloft, which will provide divergence aloft near the left
exit region and enhance the shortwave. Another weather front
associated with this feature, this one stronger than the previous,
will lift across the eastern gulf tonight, making its way through
the panhandle tomorrow. Conditions will remain relatively wet for
all locations throughout SE Alaska, as the front will provide the
needed lift for precipitation and as the jet streak aloft advects
additional moisture across the panhandle.

We'll see winds increase along the front as it makes its way
across the eastern gulf tonight and onshore tomorrow. High
resolution model guidance at the 925 mb level shows a low level
jet of approximately 40 to 50 kt, which should mix down and
increase winds at the surface. In addition to various marine
hazards, we currently have Strong Wind headlines for land zones
23 and 27, which includes the cities of Sitka, Craig, and
Hydaburg. Gusts at approximately 40 mph can be expected for these
areas as the front passes through. Other areas will most likely
still see windy conditions with gusts in the 30 to 35 mph.

In addition, most locations will lose their normal diurnal heating
curve in regards to temperature. Cloud cover will limit daytime
heating, and warm air advection and mixing ahead of the front
tonight will actually warm temperatures overnight, where the max
temperature actually occurs overnight. Max temps should still be
in the low to mid 50s, with lows in the mid to upper 40s.

For the rest of the timeframe, the rain should linger all the way
through into Tuesday, as the shortwave mentioned previously
stalls over the gulf. The Coast Range along the eastern border
will continue to provide the orographic lift to keep precipitation
chances high for most of the panhandle through this time period.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday as of 10 PM Saturday/
Continued outlook of a wet and cool pattern through next week.
Aloft an upper trough will remain over the Gulf before lifting
out Thursday morning. Meanwhile the surface low in the western
Gulf will weaken until it eventually gets overtaken by the next
front later in the week.

Overall models tend to remain fairly consistent with the idea
that skies will remain cloudy with widespread precipitation across
the panhandle Tuesday. Winds will diminish Tuesday afternoon
becoming fairly light by Wednesday morning. Used GFS/ECMWF to make
minimal changes to the forecast Tuesday and WPC solution through
the weekend. High temperatures expected to remain in the low to
mid 50s through mid-week.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for
     AKZ027.
     Strong Wind from late tonight through Monday afternoon for
     AKZ023.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053.

&&

Voveris/DDH

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