Gale Warning 141, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
241 PM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

.SHORT TERM.../Through Thursday night/ Strong low over west-central
Haida Gwaii will move NW through the SE gulf this evening, then
turn more W toward the central to N-central gulf late tonight.
Upper trof will remain over the gulf with several shortwaves
moving around it toward SE AK Wed-Thu night. Still some model
differences to work out on these features however. Made mostly
minor changes to the forecast, mainly for tonight and Thu.

Biggest concern remains high winds for the southern area this
evening. Keeping the timing/intensity of the recently issued
high wind warnings for zones 23, 27, and 28 going as they were
originally issued. Keeping in strong wind headlines for much of
the central area and the NE gulf coast. Did bump winds up some for
the central inner channels this evening to gales. All of this
wind is associated with second wrap of occluded front around the
low moving NW from Haida Gwaii. Fast movement of the low and
second wrap of front will keep the period of strongest winds
limited to 2-3 hours for most areas.

Otherwise, will have some rain with the system moving past the
area tonight. Think the most rain will be over the far S early
this evening, but not expecting any heavy amounts. Once the system
moves into the N-central gulf late tonight, precip threat will
generally decrease. Drying trend should last into Wed as offshore
flow becomes more established with main low center to the SW and
most shortwave energy will be S of the area, although a weak trof
may reach the far southern area late in the afternoon. While the
larger scale pattern would tend to keep better precip threat over
the S Wed night-Thu night, cannot rule out some precip getting
into the N panhandle at times as weakening shortwaves may reach
that area.

Temps will be above average for much of the area Wed with a bit
more sunshine expected and offshore flow. Looks like closer to
average temps for Thu with some cooler air moving in from the S
and offshore flow weaker.

.LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/...Operational models and
their ensembles continue to differ in the details of individual
fronts and pieces of energy rotating northward around the upper
trough through early Saturday. Most likely places to receive
continued rainy conditions and periods of gusty wind through
Saturday will be the southern Panhandle, although most of the
Panhandle will probably see rainfall on Friday as the main upper
trough begins to get kicked east. The biggest disagreement in
model-land centers around what happens with the Arctic stream
trough forecast to drop southward through the Yukon and interior
of Alaska on Friday and Saturday as ridging builds over the Bering
Sea. Timing and position of this feature will likely determine
how quickly the low level flow gains an offshore component this
weekend and the resultant drying. Eventually though, it looks like
a drier period will begin to set up by Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ026.
     High Wind Warning until 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ027-028.
     Strong Wind until 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for
     AKZ021-022.
     High Wind Warning until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ023.
     Strong Wind from 1 AM AKDT Wednesday through late tonight for
     AKZ017.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ036.
     Gale Warning for PKZ021-022-031>035-041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-053.

&&

RWT/DEL

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1111 AM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

AKZ017-021-022-025-026-110800-
Cape Fairweather to Cape Suckling Coastal Area-
Eastern Chichagof Island-
Salisbury Sound to Cape Fairweather Coastal Area-
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Inner Channels from Kupreanof Island to Etolin Island-
Including the cities of Yakutat, Hoonah, Elfin Cove, Pelican,
Juneau, Petersburg, Wrangell, and Kake
1111 AM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...FAST MOVING STRONG LOW TO AFFECT THE PANHANDLE LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

A strong low is forming late this morning south of Haida Gwaii.
This low will deepen rapidly as it tracks north today and will
pass close by the southern outer coast late this afternoon. The
low will then track northwest into the north-central gulf late
tonight. Strong winds are expected across much of the central
panhandle and northeast gulf coast tonight.

Because this system is moving so quickly, the period of strongest
winds for any given location will last only 3 to 6 hours. At this
time, peak wind gusts are forecast to be around 45 mph. However,
there is some uncertainty with the exact track and strength of
this low, and higher winds cannot be ruled out at present.
Therefore, residents of the central panhandle and the northeast
gulf coast of Alaska are urged to remain alert for updates to the
forecast as the day progresses.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Juneau AK
214 PM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

AKZ023-027-028-102315-
Cape Decision to Salisbury Sound Coastal Area-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision Coastal Area-
Southern Inner Channels-
Including the cities of Sitka, Port Alexander, Craig, Klawock,
Ketchikan, and Metlakatla
214 PM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...FAST MOVING STRONG LOW TO AFFECT THE PANHANDLE LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

A strong low is forming late this morning south of Haida Gwaii.
This low will deepen rapidly as it tracks north today and will
pass close by the southern outer coast late this afternoon. The
low will then track northwest into the north-central gulf late
tonight. Strong winds are expected across much of the central
panhandle and northeast gulf coast tonight.

Because this system is moving so quickly, the period of strongest
winds for any given location will last only 3 to 6 hours. At this
time, peak wind gusts are forecast to be around 70 mph. High wind
warnings have been issued for the area. Therefore, residents of
the central panhandle and the northeast gulf coast of Alaska are
urged to remain alert for updates to the forecast as the day
progresses.