Gale Warning 113, NWS Juneau, AK

303 
FZAK52 PAJK 212323
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
323 PM AKDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-221730-
323 PM AKDT Wed Mar 21 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Low pressure in the SE gulf will track south and persist through
Thu. Strong high pressure over Mainland Alaska  will expand into
NW Canada through Thu.  

$$

PKZ041-221730-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
323 PM AKDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. W swell. 
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-221730-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
323 PM AKDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. W swell. 
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-221730-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
323 PM AKDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt becoming NE 40 kt late. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-221730-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
323 PM AKDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE gale to 35 kt decreasing to 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-221730-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
323 PM AKDT Wed Mar 21 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. S swell in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. S swell in the
evening. 
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

313 
FZAK52 PAJK 221143
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
343 AM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-230545-
343 AM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Low pressure SW of Haida Gwaii will persist through Thu. Strong 
high pressure in the southern Yukon will begin to weaken Thu 
night. 

$$

PKZ041-230545-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
343 AM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. W swell
early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-230545-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
343 AM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 5 ft building to
8 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-230545-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
343 AM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Gusts to 65 kt out of Cross Sound. Seas 
12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt diminishing late. Gusts to 60 kt out of 
Cross Sound in the evening. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building
to 8 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-230545-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
343 AM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Higher gusts out of interior passes. Seas
11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt diminishing late. Higher gusts out of 
interior passes in the evening. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 8 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-230545-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
343 AM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. E swell. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. E swell in the evening. 
.FRI...N wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 8 ft. 
.MON...E wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

118 
FZAK52 PAJK 222331
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
331 PM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-231745-
331 PM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Low pressure SW of Haida Gwaii will weaken tonight while moving
further southeast. Strong high pressure in the southern Yukon 
will also begin to weaken tonight but will persist into Friday.

$$

PKZ041-231745-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
331 PM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt late. Seas 8 ft 
subsiding to 6 ft late.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-231745-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
331 PM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 5 ft building to
8 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-231745-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
331 PM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt late. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the
afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building
to 8 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-231745-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
331 PM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt late. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 8 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 8 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-231745-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
331 PM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming S late. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 8 ft. 
.MON...E wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

858 
FZAK52 PAJK 231153
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
353 AM AKDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-240600-
353 AM AKDT Fri Mar 23 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Strong high pressure in the southern Yukon will weaken Friday but
will persist through Sat night. A weak area of low pressure will 
develop in the northern gulf Fri night and drift SE through Sat 
night. 

$$

PKZ041-240600-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
353 AM AKDT Fri Mar 23 2018

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt becoming variable 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain
showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-240600-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
353 AM AKDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 7 ft. Rain showers early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-240600-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
353 AM AKDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-240600-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
353 AM AKDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 8 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building
to 8 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-240600-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
353 AM AKDT Fri Mar 23 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming E late. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building to
9 ft. 
.MON...E wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

568 
FZAK52 PAJK 232327
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
327 PM AKDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-241730-
327 PM AKDT Fri Mar 23 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
High pressure in the southern Yukon will persist through tonight,
as a weak area of low pressure develops in the northern gulf and 
drifts SE through Saturday. 

$$

PKZ041-241730-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
327 PM AKDT Fri Mar 23 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-241730-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
327 PM AKDT Fri Mar 23 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming NW. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming E late. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-241730-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
327 PM AKDT Fri Mar 23 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-241730-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
327 PM AKDT Fri Mar 23 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-241730-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
327 PM AKDT Fri Mar 23 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming E late. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...E gale to 35 kt becoming SW 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
943 PM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

.UPDATE...Forecast updated this evening in the Haines area due to
continues snow shower underneath a deformation band. 3 to 5 inches
had been reported to have fallen through the evening hours so
issued a warning for heavy snow through the middle of the night.

On the south side of the low a band of enhanced showers is moving
toward Baranof Island. Strong cold advection headed to the coast
with some upper level support is enhancing shower strength that is
sparking a few isolated thunderstorms over the marine waters for
the overnight time frames. They may approach the coast of Baranof
Island. The that area of the marine forecast was updated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Satellite imagery this afternoon showing a low
pressure system in the NE AK Gulf tracking to the south. The front
associated with this low produced mix of rain and snow overnight
for a majority of Panhandle. Precip transitioned to showers as
cold air aloft moved in creating unstable conditions. Model
sounding lapse rates of 5 c/km were confirmed by the PAYA 12z
sounding. As the low center moves south shower bands were expected
to increase under deformation zone for the northern central
panhandle. However difficult to pin point exact location of
banding. Due to warm boundary layer for most locations (expect the
far norther regions) snow fall accumulation at lower elevations
limited to less than 1 inch, with 1 to 2 inches for the northern
regions. As cold air continues to move in behind the low over
night temps will drop below freezing, which will aid in snow
accumulation for remaining scattered showers. Tuesday night into
Wednesday will switch to a drying period as the low center tracks
south. Still expect a healthy diurnal temperatures range as
increased March daylight will help warm temps.

Main change in weather will be building high pressure over the
Yukon and tightening northerly pressure gradient between the
current Gulf low, which will have moved just off the Haida Gwaii
coast. Gale force outflow winds over the coastal waters pick up
late tonight and last through Thursday. Expecting at least max
northerly gales for the northern inner channels and 40 to 50 mph
gusts out of interior passes. Long wind fetch should increase
waves heights down Lynn Canal and into N Chatham Strait. While
Downtown Juneau and Douglas will be windy at this time not
expecting a true Taku wind event and for now have gusts at 50 mph.
While getting good cross barrier flow and ridge top temp inversion,
not getting the necessary critical level at 500 mb, where wind
speed/direction shift, which promotes mountain wave development,
since the vertically stacked low is very deep.

Southern regions will likely be back into a wet pattern as the
Haida Gwaii surface low tracks east moving in more precip bands.
Not expecting these bands to move much further north than Sumner
Strait and as of now no significant QPF. Did start to warm surface
temperatures for those areas due to the more SE'ly flow so likely
see more rain than snow.

Initially models still mostly in line with inherited forecast,
did a blend of NAM/Canadian for pop field as the low was slightly
slower in moving to the south this evening. Timing of winds
transitioning from west and south to north and east may be delayed
a few hours due to the slower moving low. Some NAMNest blended for
local wind effects on Wed night and Thu. Used more GFS/ECMWF for
Thu to depict the Haida Gwaii low and increased pop moving over
the south. Forecast confidence is average.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday/...as of 10 pm Monday.
Little change in the overall upper level pattern through the long
range today. The nearly stationary upper low over the NE Pacific
along with the upstream ridge over western Alaska all remain in
relatively the same place as yesterday. Guidance has also not
moved much on when the upstream ridge breaks down (still forecast
for Saturday) and we transition to more zonal flow by next week.
It is past that pattern change that guidance is still having
troubles. Timing of individual short waves for early next week is
low confidence at best at the moment, but the general trend is for
a W to SW zonal flow.

At the surface, a cold air mass dropping S from the Yukon
dominates the late week period with outflow winds up to gale
force blowing out of the usual outflow areas. Highest winds appear
to be Thu as one last trough from the departing upper low and the
building high in the Yukon combine to strengthen pressure
gradients across the panhandle. Main changes here were for local
effects to strengthen winds in some areas. There is also the
possibility of some Taku winds developing for downtown Juneau and
Douglas on Thu through the lack of a critical level will likely
limit observed wind speeds.

Into the weekend and early next week, the pattern shift aloft
results in a more active and wet pattern for the panhandle.
Generally favored ECMWF and WPC for guidance out here as the 18z
GFS had a much further south storm track (and a drier forecast as
a result) then either the ECMWF, WPC, or the ensemble means were
showing. The new 0z GFS offered more support to the wetter
solutions of the ECMWF and WPC by trending further north with the
storm tracks for next week. Decided to keep (and in some cases
raise) the chance and likely pops that are present past Sunday.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ019.
     Strong Wind from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon
     for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-022-031-043-052-053.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ041-042.

&&

Bezenek / PRB/EAL

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau