Gale Warning 101, NWS Juneau, AK

512 
FZAK53 PAJK 091238
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
338 AM AKST Fri Mar 9 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-100645-
Yakutat Bay-
338 AM AKST Fri Mar 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming S 20 kt in the morning. Seas 11 
ft building to 15 ft. East side of the bay, seas 4 ft. SW swell. 
Rain and snow in the morning, then snow showers and slight chance
of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft, except 3 ft E side of the
bay. SW swell in the evening. Snow showers. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft, except 3 ft E side of the
bay. SW swell. Snow showers in the morning.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft, except 4 ft E side of
the bay. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
316 PM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018

.SHORT TERM...A strong front moving across the gulf from the west
will cause snow to move into the Yakutat area this evening, then
spread east over the panhandle overnight. Latest models had the
front moving in slightly later than the previous forecast, so most
places now have snow beginning after midnight into the pre-dawn
hours. Greatest snow accumulations look to happen quickly,
largely in a 6hr period. Have advisories for accumulations of
3-7in for Yakutat, Haines and Skagway. Have an advisory for Juneau
for 2-6in. Biggest forecast challenge is a change over to rain.
Many locations, including near sea level in the advisory zones,
will see a change to rain during Friday. From Icy Strait south,
those places will see a mix or mainly rain the whole time with
little accumulations.

As the front approaches the eastern gulf gale force winds will
develop along the coastal waters with storm force barrier jet over
the northeast gulf coast. As the front moves inland inner channel
winds will pick up to southerly gale force. In addition strong
southeasterly and easterly winds will pick up late tonight and
into Friday, especially near Yakutat, Skagway and Juneau areas.
Southern locations will miss the main impact of the winds but
still affected by low level wind shear. Winds will diminish
through late afternoon and evening as the front crosses into B.C.
As the next low moves into the southern gulf will have an increase
in winds for the SE coastal waters, picking up to min small
craft.

Behind the front precip will transition back to showers and CAA
will cause mainly scattered to numerous snow showers. Will need to
watch accumulation with the showers if any set up over one area,
could see some higher rates near advisory level. For now limited
accumulations to 2-4in. The front will be over the far SE corner
of the panhandle Friday evening, but then a wave looks to develop
along it and cause moisture to shift back north over the region
Saturday. Strong south flow continues over the next several days
with increasingly warm air. Weak low centers will develop with the
waves and track north across the central gulf, these will help to
increase precip rates but also cause the moisture plume to waver
back and forth across the region. Over all expect the weekend to
be wet, with mainly rain and spring-like temperatures.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday as of 10 pm Wednesday/
Decided against changing long range forecast for 2 main reasons.
First, the models remain a major mess handling low pressure waves
moving N into the gulf over the weekend, and they also differ on
other features somewhat next week. Second, with ongoing winter
storm Wednesday evening, needed to focus on the near term weather.

Large scale upper trof will be over the EPAC during the weekend
and early next week. Models hint that the trof will split, with
northern end of it drifting NE across SE AK while southern end
becomes a huge upper low just offshore the western lower 48 states
during midweek. The handling of shortwaves embedded within the
trof continues to be a major forecast issue however. Does look
like 1 or more low pressure waves will move N into the gulf over
the weekend, but timing/track/intensity is highly variable amongst
the models. Flow aloft will be southerly through a deep layer, so
expect warming temps over the weekend, and at least some precip.
This flow becomes more SSE early next week, which could lead to
well above average temps, especially if there is significant
downslope easterly flow in lower levels. Precip potential next
week will depend on whether a front gets hung up over the area or
offshore.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to noon AKST Friday for AKZ025.
     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM AKST
     Friday for AKZ019.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 3 PM AKST Friday for AKZ018.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST
     Friday for AKZ017.
     Strong Wind from midnight AKST tonight through late tonight for
     AKZ017.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ052.
     Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-021-032-042-043-051-053.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-022-031-033>036-041.

&&

Ferrin/RWT

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1238 PM AKST THU MAR 8 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HEAVY SNOW       10 E JUNEAU             58.30N 134.14W
03/07/2018  M6.2 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP FROM ANNEX CREEK REPORTED 6.2 INCHES OF SNOW AS OF
            4PM MARCH 7

0630 PM     HEAVY SNOW       ELFIN COVE              58.19N 136.34W
03/07/2018  M5.2 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER FROM ELFIN COVE CALLED TO REPORT 5.2
            INCHES OF SNOW MEASURED AS OF 630PM MARCH 7

0630 PM     HEAVY SNOW       PELICAN                 57.95N 136.21W
03/07/2018  E8.0 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP FROM PELICAN CALLED TO REPORT 8 INCHES STORM TOTAL

1200 AM     HEAVY SNOW       JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
03/08/2018  M6.7 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            JUNEAU AIRPORT REPORTED 6.7 INCHES OF SNOW AS OF MIDNIGHT

1200 AM     HEAVY SNOW       YAKUTAT                 59.54N 139.73W
03/08/2018  M3.6 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            DAN MEASURED 3.6 INCHES AS OF MIDNIGHT MARCH 8

0630 AM     HEAVY SNOW       TEE HARBOR              58.49N 133.94W
03/08/2018  E3.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

            BARBARA PRITCHETT REPORTED 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW AS OF
            0630 THIS MORNING.

0700 AM     HEAVY SNOW       HAINES                  59.24N 135.44W
03/08/2018  M13.0 INCH                          AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            2 DAY STORM TOTAL FOR HAINES CO-OP

0845 AM     HEAVY SNOW       1 W JUNEAU              58.30N 134.44W
03/08/2018  M4.5 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            WES ADKINS MEASURED 4.5 INCHES AT HIS HOUSE IN WEST
            JUNEAU.

1105 AM     SNOW             GUSTAVUS                58.41N 135.80W
03/08/2018  E5.0 INCH                           AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            DOT IN GUSTAVUS HAD AN AVERAGE OF 5 INCHES. RANGED FROM 4
            TO 6 INCHES AROUND THE AREA

&&

JVOVERIS