Winter Storm Warning 30, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
707 AM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
ALoft...
A very deep long wave trough over the Bering Sea and NW Pacific
with a ridge over Western Canada will persist into early next
week. A series of strong short wave troughs will move north over
Northern AK over the next several days bringing periods of heavy
snow and blizzard conditions to the West Coast and Western
Interior and strong chinook winds to the Eastern Interior.

A strong short wave now over the Western Interior will move to
Point Lay to Denali this afternoon and then to Barrow to Eagle
tonight. Light snow east of the trough will drop 1 inch of snow.

Surface...
A very deep low near just west of Adak will move into the southern
Bering today. A frontal wave developing over the southeast Bering
today will move to the central Bering as a 954 mb low by 3am Sun.
to near St Matthew Is as a 960 m,b low by 3pm Sun and then drift
NW. This will bring NE gales to the Northern Bering and Norton
Sound by Sun am into Mon along with blizzard conditions and heavy
snow. Heavy snow will spread over the SW interior Sun into Mon as
well. Expect 6 inches of snow along the Coast with 6-10 inches
inland.

A Second frontal wave will move north to the YK Delta by 3am Mon
and to the Seward Pen by 3pm Mon. Expect more snow with this
feature.

Expect south winds gusting to 70 mph along the Alaska Range Sun
into Mon ahead of these systems.

Do not expect freezing precip anywhere other than the Alaska Range
Sun night into Mon. All models indicate Temps remaining below
freezing across the SE interior other than the Alaska Range.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft. GFS has features moving north
deepen more than other models. Given that the lows are deepening
in the Eastern Aleutians and Bristol Bay along a frontal system
well east of the anchoring low, it is highly out of the ordinary
that cold air flowing east across several thousand miles of the
North Pacific would still be cold enough to allow lows to bomb out
in this location. Given those reasons favor the ECMF solution,
which does not deepen the surface features as much as the NAM or
GFS Sun and Mon. This will have have significant impacts on
winds/snow/blowing snow locations and strength for Sun and Mon.

At the surface at 06Z, all models verify several mb too weak with
low just north of Demarcation Point, 4 mb too weak on the low near
Kotzebue, and also several mb too weak on the surface high near
Northway, and on the surface high over NE Russia. This will cause
west winds to be a few kt stronger today in zone 204 than models
indicate, stronger winds by 5 kt around Koztebue Sounds today, a
Tanana Valleys jet which is 5-10 kt strong that models indicate
for this am, and winds a bit stronger over the Bering Se than
models indicate today/tonight.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Blizzard conditons with NE winds 30-40kt and g50 kt in the Bering
Strait.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch for AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ216-AKZ217.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ213-AKZ214.

Winter Storm Watch for AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ215-AKZ216.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

JB DEC 18