Wind Advisory 70, NWS Fairbanks, AK

891 
WWAK73 PAFG 172030
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1130 AM AKST Mon Dec 17 2018

AKZ223-172130-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0070.000000T0000Z-181217T2100Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Including Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely, 
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, and Healy Lake
1130 AM AKST Mon Dec 17 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the Wind
Advisory. 

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
153 PM AKST Sun Dec 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Synopsis...Upper level trough will remain over the west coast
with south flow over the eastern half of the state. A surface low
will move from the Gulf of Alaska into the southcentral area with
low developing north of the Western Alaska Range and moving to the
Upper Kobuk Valley, then dissipating. Snow will develop in the
Alaska Range and Middle Yukon Valley this evening and spread north
with snow remaining generally west of Manley Hot Springs, but
spreading east of Bettles as it moves to the Brooks Range Monday.
Strong winds developing in the Bering Strait as the pressure
gradient tightens up tonight with strong winds persisting into
Tuesday before diminishing.

Models...16/12Z solutions are in good agreement and initialized
fairly well with the 16/18Z surface analysis. Solutions not
picking up on low in MacKenzie Bay, and over forecasting the low
over Point Lay at this point. Major features are being handled
well. Solutions diverge beyond 60 hours with the only agreement
being troughing to the west and ridging to the east with very
little agreement on the major features aloft. Going with an even
blend for the short term with a lean toward the SREF precipitation
solution.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Troughing over the West Coast with a 492 dam
low over Point Lay, and a 494 dam low over Bethel this afternoon.
Ridging pushing west to the Middle Yukon River Valley with 515
dam heights over the AlCan Border. Not much change by Monday
afternoon as the low near Point Lay moves north over th Arctic to
77N, while the low over Bethel moves over Kaltag with ridging
holding to the east. And by Tuesday afternoon 500 dam low will be
over Kotzebue, while a 502 dam low is developing over the
Shelikof Strait and riding holds on to the east. There are
indications the troughing will break down later this week, but
solutions have been performing poorly in the extended periods for
quite a while. At 850 hpa...Temperatures below -10C over the
Interior, and below -20C over the West Coast and Western Arctic,
but weak warm air advection over the Interior next 48 hours with
weak cold air advection over the West Coast, Western Interior, and
Western Arctic.

Surface...Broad area of low pressure over the state with a 968 mb
low near Prince William Sound, leeside troughing north of the
Alaska Range, a 993 mb low in MacKenzie Bay, and a 970 mb low
south of the Aleutians this afternoon. High pressure has pushed
east over the Arctic Plains, and persists over Siberia. The broad
low pressure remains over the area, but by Tuesday afternoon the
developing low over MacKenzie Bay will be 300 nm north of Point
Barrow with troughing extending southeast into the Northwest
Territories. A low will develop north of the Alaska Range and move
over the Middle Yukon, and the low near Prince William Sound will
weaken and move into Upper Cook Inlet, while the low south of the
Aleutians will move south of the Gulf of Alaska at 968 mb. And by
Tuesday afternoon troughing will extend southeast across the
Arctic from the Dateline, and a 970 mb low will be near Sitka.
Weak high pressure will move over the Central Aleutians extending
north to a 1021 mb high over Chukotka, and weak high pressure will
persist over the Arctic Plains.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Pretty quiet, but snow developing
over the Brooks Range Monday with 2 to 4 inches of snow through
Tuesday. Winds picking up Monday near passes will produce some
blowing snow and may impact visibility at times. Winds will also
be increasing on the Eastern Arctic coast as the low in MacKenzie
Bay develops, then moves northwest across the Arctic.
Temperatures will be steady the next couple days. Wind chill
locally to 45 below.

West Coast and Western Interior...Along the coast winds increasing
from the north, with snow moving north in the Western Interior. 2
to 4 inches of snow tonight through Tuesday afternoon mainly east
of the Nulato Hills. Temperatures slightly warmer Monday, then
cooling in the Western Interior Tuesday as the snow clears out.
Strongest winds will generally be offshore, but winds will be
gusting to 45 mph around Wales, Tin City, and Diomede.

Central and Eastern Interior...Partly to mostly cloudy the next
couple days, with just some flurries possible from Manley Hot
Springs east, while to the west up to an inch of snow is
possible. As the snow moves north of Tanana it will spread east to
the AlCan Border with 2 to 6 inches of snow falling north of the
Yukon River by Wednesday morning. A weak warming trend will bring
temperatures up 5 to 15 degrees across the area the next couple
days. Winds generally light, but expect winds gusting to 35 mph
near passes in the Alaska Range, and to 25 mph around Delta
Junction tonight as a weak Tanana Valley Jet kicks in for a few
hours.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Models performing poorly, but
expect temperatures to start cooling Wednesday night in the
Interior as some of the colder air out west is pushed into the
area, and skies start clearing.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220.

&&

SDB DEC 18