Wind Advisory 67, NWS Fairbanks, AK

027 
WWAK73 PAFG 021234
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
334 AM AKST Sun Dec 2 2018

AKZ226-030200-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WI.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-181203T0300Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
334 AM AKST Sun Dec 2 2018

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING...

* LOCATION...Alaska Range passes.

* WINDS...South gusting to 50 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will peak this afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Travel may be difficult. Secure loose objects which may
be blown about by the wind.

&&

$$

917 
WWAK73 PAFG 022336
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
236 PM AKST Sun Dec 2 2018

AKZ226-030600-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WI.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-181203T0600Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
236 PM AKST Sun Dec 2 2018

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING...

* LOCATION...Alaska Range passes.

* WINDS...South gusting to 60 mph.

* TIMING...Strong winds will decrease late tonight. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Travel may be difficult. Secure loose objects which may
be blown about by the wind.

&&

$$

517 
WWAK73 PAFG 030535
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
835 PM AKST Sun Dec 2 2018

AKZ226-030645-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-181203T0600Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
835 PM AKST Sun Dec 2 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the Wind
Advisory. 

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
453 PM AKST Sat Dec 1 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
The long wave pattern consisting of a deep trough over the Bering
Sea and NW Pacific with a strong ridge over the eastern Pacific
and Eastern Alaska. A series of strong short wave troughs are
rotating out of this long wave trough and moving northeast across
mainland AK over the next several days. Each of these troughs will
bring periods of strong winds, more warm temperatures, and mixed
precip. By the middle of the week the long wave ridge will build
over Mainland AK causing some clearing, then the long wave will

Surface...
A ridge of high pressure north of the Arctic Coast of Alaska will
weaken Sun. This is causing east winds 20 kt along the Eastern
Arctic Coast.

A 972 mb low 100 NM west of Kivalina will move to 200 NM northwest
of Cape Lisburne as a 987 mb low by 3pm Sun, and to 300 NM
northwest of Barrow as a 1005 mb low by 3pm Mon. Southerly gale
force winds just east of this low are now blowing over the
Chukchi Sea Coast from Kivalina to Cape Lisburne with gusts of 50
to 60 mph. These winds will continue this evening and start to
decrease slowly on Sun. This is causing high surf from Kivalina to
Point Hope that will continue through Sunday, then ease Sun PM as
the winds decrease.

A weather front stretching from this low to Point Lay to just
south of McGrath will move to Barrow to Barter Island to Delta
Junction by 3am Sun, and then north of the Arctic Coast Sun PM.
There is snow along this front that will spread northeast with the
front. Expect 2-4 inches of snow with the front tonight south of
the Brooks Range in the Western and Central Interior, and 1-2
inches along the front north of the Brooks Range and in the
Eastern Interior late tonight through early Sun. There is
freezing rain along this front in the area southeast of Anvik to
Buckland to Denali now that will move to McGrath to Fairbanks to
Delta Junction this evening and then end as the front moves east
as a cold front.

A second low near Dutch Harbor will move the the Yukon Delta as a
996 mb low by 3pm Sun, to near Kotzebue as a 1005 mb low by 3am
Mon, and to 60 NM north of Deadhorse as a 1010 mb low by 3pm Mon.
Expect 3-6 inches of snow near this low center along the West
Coast and Western Interior Sun PM through Mon. May need to issue
more advisories or warning for this but will wait until current
event ends.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Above the surface models initialize well and show similar
solutions through 3pm Tue. Models differ in the second half of
the week on details, but all show long wave developing over
Mainland AK by next weekend. On precip, prefer the GFS/ECMF areal
coverage over the NAM, as the NAM appears too limited in its areal
coverage Coastal in the next day or two.

At the surface models verify well at 18z. Models show similar
solutions through 3pm Mon, and then the GFS moves the surface low
in the High Arctic to the east faster than the ECMF and NAM.
Favor the faster GFS solution, although the frontal movement
associated with the low is pretty similar between models through
3pm Tue.

Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
High surf ending in zones 213 and 211 this evening,
while high surf in zone 207 Kivalina North lasting through Sun am.
Southerly gale force winds are now blowing over the Chukchi Sea
Coast from Kivalina to Cape Lisburne with gusts of 50 to 60 mph.
These winds will continue this evening and start to decrease
slowly on Sun. This is causing high surf from Kivalina to Point
Hope that will continue through Sunday, then ease Sun PM as the
winds decrease.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ211-AKZ213.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ208-AKZ216-AKZ217.

High Wind Warning for AKZ225-AKZ226.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ207-AKZ215-AKZ218-
AKZ219-AKZ221-AKZ225-AKZ227.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

JB DEC 18