Wind Advisory 63, NWS Fairbanks, AK

396 
WWAK73 PAFG 242204
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
104 PM AKST Sat Nov 24 2018

AKZ226-242315-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0063.181125T0900Z-181126T0300Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
104 PM AKST Sat Nov 24 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the Wind
Advisory. 

See Winter Storm Warning for updated weather.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
208 AM AKST Sat Nov 24 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Active weather will continue over portions of northern Alaska
trough early next week with periods of snow and chance of freezing
rain over the West Coast and periods of gusty winds through the
Alaska Range passes.

Aloft at 500 mb, a ridge with axis from near Kotzebue to Yakutat
will build north and east to be centered along the Alcan border
on Sunday and will build back to the west over eastern Alaska on
Monday. A series of shortwaves will move north along the back
side of the ridge over the eastern, Bering Sea, the West Coast and
Western Interior through the middle of next week. Each shortwave
will bring a period of snow or light freezing rain to western
Alaska as areas to the east of Manley Hot Springs will be limited
on precipitation with drying down slope winds off of the Alaska
Range. In general periods of gusty winds will develop through the
Alaska Range passes as each shortwave passes over the Alaska Range
and winds aloft become perpendicular to the range and develop a
mountain wave. Timing and duration of the winds will be tricky to
pin down with the models continuing to struggle with timing and
exact track of the shortwaves moving north over the Alaska Range.

Advisory level winds are expected to develop late Saturday
evening and early Sunday morning through the passes of the eastern
Alsaka Range with a fairly strong mountain wave developing which
will expand the area of winds to the adjacent northern foothills
and not just the passes of the Alaska Range. Will need to closely
monitor the eastern Alaska Range as the latest model runs are a
little stronger on the upper level winds which could mix down to
the surface and briefly flirt with warning level gusts south of
Delta Junction. Winds are expected to remain below Advisory levels
in the central Alaska Range with west of south upper level winds
and higher criteria in that zone.

In the southern interior, temperatures aloft will rise over
freezing as the chinook develops over the central and eastern
Alaska Range with mixed precip a possibility from Fairbanks and
south, however at this time it appears that the chance of precip
is low Sunday and Monday in the interior south and east of
Fairbanks as the chinook drys out the atmosphere.

Northeasterly winds will combined with an upper level ridge over
the North Slope will continue to produce low ceilings and flurries
along the coast with less clouds inland.

The 00z model suite initialized well against the 00z surface
analysis and verified well against the 06z surface analysis. Model
spread is only fair in the short range with track and timing
differences on the shortwaves tracking north over northern
Alaska. Model spread increases rapidly in the mid range as well as
the extended range.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Active pattern will continue
for the West Coast as a low parked in the Norton Sound Region
will produce periods of snow and a chance of Freezing Rain.
Periods of gusty winds will continue through the Alaska Range
Passes next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ226.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ225.
&&

CCC NOV 18