Wind Advisory 61, NWS Fairbanks, AK

232 
WWAK73 PAFG 262231
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
231 PM AKDT Fri Oct 26 2018

AKZ226-271445-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WI.Y.0061.000000T0000Z-181028T0800Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
231 PM AKDT Fri Oct 26 2018

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT SATURDAY
NIGHT...

* LOCATION...Near Alaska Range Passes West of the Tok Cutoff.

* WINDS...South gusting to 50 mph.

* TIMING...Winds may diminish at times, but will continue to be
  strong and gusty through Saturday evening. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Travel may be difficult. Secure loose objects which may
be blown about by the wind.

&&

$$

906 
WWAK73 PAFG 271058
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
258 AM AKDT Sat Oct 27 2018

AKZ226-280200-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0061.000000T0000Z-181028T0800Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
258 AM AKDT Sat Oct 27 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT...

* LOCATION...Near Alaska Range Passes West of the Tok Cutoff.

* WINDS...South gusting to 50 mph.

* TIMING...Winds ramp up this morning and will peak in the
  afternoon. Winds will die down this evening. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Travel may be difficult. Secure loose objects which may
be blown about by the wind.

&&

$$

091 
WWAK73 PAFG 271709
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
909 AM AKDT Sat Oct 27 2018

AKZ222-272000-
/O.NEW.PAFG.FG.Y.0012.181027T1709Z-181027T2000Z/
Middle Tanana Valley-
Including Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright, Eielson AFB, Ester, 
North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox, Chatanika, 
Chena Hot Springs, and Sourdough Camp
909 AM AKDT Sat Oct 27 2018

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKDT TODAY...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has issued a Dense Fog
Advisory, which is in effect until noon AKDT today. 

* VISIBILITY...is reduced to near zero in some areas due to dense
  fog.

* TIMING...Dense fog will thin by noon today.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Dense Fog Advisory means visibilities are frequently reduced to
near zero. Reduce vehicle speed when driving and use low beam
headlights.

&&

$$

AKZ226-280115-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0061.000000T0000Z-181028T0800Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
909 AM AKDT Sat Oct 27 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT...

* LOCATION...Near Alaska Range Passes West of the Tok Cutoff.

* WINDS...South gusting to 50 mph.

* TIMING...Winds ramp up this morning and will peak in the 
  afternoon. Winds will die down this evening. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Travel may be difficult. Secure loose objects which may
be blown about by the wind.

&&

$$

593 
WWAK73 PAFG 272022
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1222 PM AKDT Sat Oct 27 2018

AKZ222-272130-
/O.EXP.PAFG.FG.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-181027T2000Z/
Middle Tanana Valley-
Including Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright, Eielson AFB, Ester, 
North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox, Chatanika, 
Chena Hot Springs, and Sourdough Camp
1222 PM AKDT Sat Oct 27 2018

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Fog is now thinning and visibility is starting to improve. 
Fog will continue to thin this afternoon. 

$$

AKZ226-280800-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0061.000000T0000Z-181028T0800Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
1222 PM AKDT Sat Oct 27 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT...

* LOCATION...Near Alaska Range Passes West of the Tok Cutoff.

* WINDS...South gusting to 50 mph.

* TIMING...Strong winds are now occuring. Winds will decrease late this
  evening. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Travel may be difficult. Secure loose objects which may
be blown about by the wind.

&&

$$

928 
WWAK73 PAFG 280505 AAA
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
905 PM AKDT Sat Oct 27 2018

AKZ226-280615-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0061.000000T0000Z-181028T0800Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
905 PM AKDT Sat Oct 27 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the Wind
Advisory. 

Gusty winds through the Alaska range gaps have subsided late this
evening allowing for the cancellation of the wind advisory for the
region.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
216 PM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
Long wave pattern consisting of a trough over the Eastern Bering
Sea, Western AK and the Gulf of AK with a ridge over NW Canada and
eastern AK will persist into the weekend as a series of strong
short wave troughs and associated surface lows make their way
from the Gulf of Alaska north into the Interior. By Sun the long
wave trough will progress east over mainland AK. This means that
the the stormy pattern of the past week consisting of periods of rain,
snow, freezing rain, winds, and well above normal temperatures
will continue into Sat.

On Sunday, expect a sharp drop to near normal temperatures along
with more widespread snow. These conditions will continue into
the first several days of next week.

Surface...
A 994 mb low 100 NM north of Prudhoe Bay will move to 300 nm north
of Prudhoe Bay as a a 997 mb low by 4am Fri, to 400 NM north of
Prudhoe Bay as a 1000 mb low by 4pm Fri. An arctic cold front from
the low to Cape Lisburne to the Bering Strait to Nunivak Island
will move to Barter Island to Point Hope to Nunivak Island by 4am
Fri and then persist into Sat. Scattered snow showers and areas
of fog along the front over the North Slope will spread east to
Barter Island tonight.

Widespread rain and snow showers are occuring where the front
lies over open water from Cape Lisburne to the Bering Strait to
St Lawrence Island. This will change over to all snow late
tonight and continue in that area through Sat as the cold air
continues to flow south over the warm water and produce the snow
showers. Expect 1-3 inches of snow over these areas through Sat.
Also expect north winds 30kt along the front, with 40 kt south of
the Bering Strait.

A 960 mb low in the northwest Gulf of AK will move to to the Kenai
Pen as a 976 mb low by 4am Fri, then weaken to 985 mb low by 4pm
Fri, then weaken over the AK Pen Sat. An occluded front stretching
from the low to Skwentna to Fairbanks to Eagle will move to
McGrath to Livengood to a 994 mb low near Eagle by 4am Fri, and
Shageluk to Tanana to Circle to a 996 mb Low near Eagle by 4pm
Fri, along a Shageluk to Bettles to Circle lone by 4am Sat, then
persisting into Sat pm, and then moving east across the Eastern
Interior Sun.

There are now isolated rain and snow showers along this
front with a few freezing rain showers where rain is falling on
frozen ground. Showers will become scattered tonight and Fri north
and west of Fairbanks, and there will still be a chance of
freezing rain along and north of the front. Weak downslope winds
will develop tonight over the Tanana Valley south of the front and
persist into Fri night. This will keep the Tanana Valley from
Fairbanks East mainly dry from late tonight into Fri night.
Will see snow become more widespread along the front in the
Western and northern Interior Fri night and Sat, them spreading to
Across the Eastern INterior Sun. Expect several inches of snow in
the western and northern Interior Fri night Sat with this
feature, with several inches possible in the Eastern Interior
Sun.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft at 12Z and show similar solutions
into Sat, then see bigger differences into Sun. Some differences
in precipitation fields, so will use a combination of the
NAM/GFS/ECMF areal coverage to broaden out the area that precip
occurs which seems to be the case at this time. Favor the ECMF
solution for Sun, which is faster with the next incoming Gulf of
AK low than the other models, and brings the long wave trough east
over mainland AK on Sun more than the GFS/NAM. This will result
in cooler and wetter conditions for the Eastern Interior Sun.

At the Surface at 15Z all models initialize about 6 mb too weak
on surface low in the northern Gulf of AK. Will accommodate this
by increasing winds over Interior 3-5 kt today and tonight.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
North winds 30g40kt from the Bering Strait to St Lawrence Island
are causing elevated seas, but rightward displacement of water
caused by the Eckman Spiral is causing lower than normal sea
levels, so waves should be breaking offshore.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.
&&

JB OCT 18