Wind Advisory 57, NWS Fairbanks, AK

801 
WWAK73 PAFG 141018
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
218 AM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

AKZ220-141130-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0057.000000T0000Z-181014T2000Z/
Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-
Including Fort Yukon, Venetie, Central, Circle, Stevens Village, 
Beaver, Chalkyitsik, Birch Creek, Circle Hot Springs, 
Eagle Summit, and Twelvemile Summit
218 AM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the Wind
Advisory. 

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
533 AM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018

.DISCUSSION...
A series of lows and associated fronts in the Bering Sea will
facilitate a somewhat active pattern over most Northern Alaska
this weekend and into next week. Determining precipitation type
and probability over the Southern Interior with downslope
conditions will be one of the main forecast challenges tonight
into Sunday morning. The latest model guidance (13/00Z) is in
good agreement through the middle of next week with the overall
synoptic pattern.

Aloft...At 500 mb, a 521 dam low is currently situated 60 miles
southeast of St Matthew Island with an upper level ridge over the
far Eastern Interior and Yukon Territory. Southerly flow will
persist in between these two features over the Alaska Range and
the Interior through late this afternoon before becoming
southwesterly this evening. A 522 dam 100 miles southwest of
Shemya will move east along the Aleutian Islands, deepening into a
514 dam low 150 miles south of Unalaska by Sunday afternoon, and
then will move to be over Bristol Bay by early Monday evening. As
this low moves towards Bristol Bay, southerly flow will redevelop
over the Alaska Range and Interior Sunday persisting through
Tuesday. Upper level ridging will persist over the far Eastern
Interior and western Canada into early next week.

At the surface, a 984 mb low over St. Matthew Island will drift
northeast and weaken over the Bering Sea through Sunday morning. A
967 mb low currently 100 miles southwest of Shemya will east along
the Aleutians deepening into a 966 mb low and be 150 miles south
of Unalaska by Sunday afternoon, and then proceed to be over
Bristol Bay as a 975 mb low by early Monday evening. Surface high
pressure will persist north of the Arctic Coast through early next
week.

Eastern and Central Interior...Precip type and probability will
be the main forecast concern across the area later tonight into
Sunday morning as flow becomes southwest. Have cancelled the wind
hazards for the Alaska Range and flats to the north as winds have
weakened to below advisory values. Chances for precipitation will
increase through early this evening with the precipitation type
being rain initially. There is a small window between 06Z and 09Z
before precipitation tapers off where the thermal profile in the
Middle Tanana Valley will be conducive to the possibility of
freezing rain. Will have to watch as precipitation is expected to
taper off during this time. In the hills north of Fairbanks and
over the northern Interior east of Bettles, precip type will be
snow with the potential for 2 to 4 inches of snow accumulation
through Sunday morning. Another front will bring another round of
strong south winds to the Alaska Range late Monday afternoon
through Tuesday and another round of precipitation. Snow levels
will be at the surface over the northern Interior where another
couple inches of snow accumulation is expected. At this time, rain
is expected with an overall warmer thermal profile over the
Middle Tanana Valley Monday evening before downsloping limits the
chances of precipitation.

West Coast and Western Interior...Unsettled weather pattern and
warmer than normal temperatures will continue through the weekend
and into next week. First round of precipitation will move north
along the coast over the Yukon Delta and Lower Yukon Valley this
morning, then over the Norton Sound reaching the Seward Peninsula
after midnight tonight. A second quick shot of precip will come
Sunday morning over the Yukon Delta with the third round expected
for Monday and Tuesday. East to northeast winds will increase over
the Bering Sea Monday to around 20 to 30 mph sustained and will
persist into Tuesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...Areas of fog and stratus will
persist along the Arctic Coast. A northward moving front will
approach and move over the Eastern Brooks Range by this evening
and then over the eastern North Slope after midnight tonight,
which will bring a round of accumulating snow through Sunday
evening. Could see 1 to 3 inches of snowfall in the Brooks Range
and North Slope from Anaktuvuk Pass east including the Dalton
Highway through Sunday evening. Another round of snowfall will
come Tuesday and Wednesday as another front lifts north over the
area. There some differences in detail between model solutions in
regard to the precipitation amount with the GFS and ECMWF being
more aggressive in amounts, while the NAM keeps the precip
confined to the Brooks Range.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ245.
&&

LTH OCT 18

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1048 AM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018

AKZ222-140800-
Middle Tanana Valley-
Including Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright, Eielson AFB, Ester,
North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox, Chatanika,
Chena Hot Springs, and Sourdough Camp
1048 AM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018

...Rain This Evening Will Cause Slippery Roads Sunday Morning...

Rain is likely in Fairbanks this evening. Rainfall is expected to
taper off around midnight. Temperatures around town are expected
to drop below freezing early Sunday morning. This will cause water
on area roadways to freeze and will result in slippery roads for
early Sunday.